TD 3 growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:01 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three is steadily organizing, and appears poised to become a much stronger storm than was forecast. Water vapor satellite loops show that the upper level low to the west of TD 3 that has been bringing high levels of wind shear to the storm is now moving faster to the west than predicted. This faster motion has resulted in a reduction in wind shear over TD 3, to a moderate 10 knots. Satellite images of TD 3 show that the storm is taking advantage of the lower shear by developing several low-level spiral bands to the north and east of the center. However, the center of circulation is still exposed to view, and dry air is still getting injected into the core of the storm from the southwest. The storm's heavy thunderstorms have not increased in intensity this afternoon, and the amount of heavy thunderstorm activity near the core of the storm is still limited. TD 3 will need to build more intense thunderstorms near its center before significant intensification can occur. TD 3 is a small storm, and surface observations in the Bahamas do not show the circulation very well. An outer rain band of TD 3 is now visible on Miami long-range radar, and a flood watch has been issued for all of South Florida. The Hurricane Hunters are in the storm at present, and have found top surface winds of 35 - 40 mph.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of TD 3.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Sunday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT (12Z) foresee a track more to the north than the previous set of model runs. This increases the threat to the oil spill region, and I give a 40% chance that the oil spill region will see tropical storm force winds of 39 mph or higher this weekend. Oil recovery and relief well drilling operations should cease. If TD 3 makes a direct hit on the oil spill region as a tropical storm with 50 - 60 mph winds, it will likely drive a storm surge of 3 - 6 feet with high waves on top into the Louisiana marshlands, fouling a large area with oil. Oil would also penetrate into Lake Pontchartrain, which lies just two feet above sea level. However, the wave action of the storm will dilute the oil to some degree, which may limit the damage to the marshlands.

If you are wondering about the specific probabilities of receiving tropical storm force winds at your location, I recommend the wind probability product from NHC. The latest 5 pm probabilities of various locations getting tropical storm force winds, 39 mph or higher:

Marathon 55%
Marco Island 43%
Miami 34%
New Orleans 33%
Galveston 13%

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. If the low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 10 knots to the storm. This will allow for steady intensification of perhaps 20 mph per day, and TD 3 could be a hurricane by Sunday at that pace. However, if the upper-level low slows down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear and dry air will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. None of the computer models is calling for TD 3 to strengthen into a hurricane, but if the shear continues at 10 knots, I expect TD 3 will become a hurricane. My low-confidence intensity forecast gives TD 3 a 40% chance of becoming a hurricane. NHC is putting the odds of TD 3 being a hurricane at 2 pm Sunday at 15% with their 5pm advisory.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and probably does not have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update in the morning. ABC World News Tonight will probably show a sound bite I did for them today, on their 6:30pm broadcast.

Jeff Masters

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Hey, look at that still NW.
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2318. Levi32
000
WTNT43 KNHC 230249
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EARLIER FOUND
1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT...AND BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS OF 35-39 KT. BASED ON THIS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME SUGGESTS LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...WITH SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DISPLACING THE
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO REACH BOONIE AROUND 06Z.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/12.
BONNIE IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD...
BONNIE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE...WITH THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THIS SCENARIO THROUGH 72 HR. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE
CENTER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR KEYS ON FRIDAY...AND NEAR OR
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 60-72 HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED NORTHWARD DURING THE FIRST
72 HR BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. HOWEVER...IT LIES
SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HR AND SOME
ADDITIONAL NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER.

IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BONNIE IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA
OF UPPER-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF UPPER
LOW. THIS IS A LESS THAN IDEAL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FORECASTS ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
BONNIE REACHES FLORIDA. THE FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE PROBLEMATIC
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS...PERHAPS
RESPONDING TO SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR...NOW FORECAST BONNIE TO
PEAK NEAR 60 KT OVER THE GULF. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
GFDL...GFDN...AND HWRF DO NOT FORECAST SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...
AND NEITHER DO THE GLOBAL MODELS. SINCE THE LARGE UPPER LOW IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH 48 HR...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL LEAN IN FAVOR OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE
NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 23/0300Z 23.4N 76.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 23/1200Z 24.4N 78.7W 40 KT
24HR VT 24/0000Z 25.4N 81.9W 45 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 26.5N 84.9W 45 KT
48HR VT 25/0000Z 27.6N 87.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 26/0000Z 30.0N 91.0W 40 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 27/0000Z 33.0N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 28/0000Z 35.5N 92.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Quoting weatherguy03:


Convection is good, but convection without good outflow is NOT good. Outlow will need to reestablish itself or that T-Storm complex will eventually collapse.


Bob...... ever get the feeling you are peeing against the wind? LOL

Always amazes me that 2 people can look at the same image, and see 2 completely different things!

I am not an upcaster, downcaster, not even a forecaster! But I agree with Levi...... Bonnie will likely never see north of 55-60mph sustained winds max!

But the whole wildcard here is the ULL! NOBODY knows exactly what this feature will do.......
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Quoting Patrap:
If folks..esp tblogers who have been round a few years at least,would refrain from Quoting Obvious Instigators and "Trolls".

I hate that word,..its too easy to call a Id-it a troll.

Dont feed Monomania and one wont feed the person seeking a response.

Use the controls.

Its aint rocket science.





I have ignored 140 people in the past 24 hours and I still can't keep up with the bloggers I respect! Argg!
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New wind probs give Miami a 40% chance of TS winds in the next 24 hours...


Looks like Miami and CCHS are vindicated.
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2313. Levi32
Water Vapor illustrates the elongated structure of Bonnie. No outflow at all to the northeast or southwest. It's still a big fight, and she could even be losing some ground right now.

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Tampa has a 17% chance of 34 knot winds. Holy cow, I had better put up the shutters! LOL
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2311. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting RainyEyes:


Do you have a link?
NHC website
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Didn't realize our blog was of national importance.. if we're mocked on national television it must be by Dr. Phil when he reads some of the comments on here.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Why do you folks post stuff like this? Is it that we can't see for ourselves on another part of the wunderground website? weird stuff
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y is every1 such a downcaster u knever know wut can happen
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PLEASE! Stop quoting the trolls!

Good evening Chicklet. Nice shot Earth-dragon.

Bonnie doesn't look like much right now, but I've seen much worse looking blobs cause lots of problems. Give this thing till tomorrow morning and we'll all see what we've got.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Awesome call there CCHS.


Do you have a link?
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2303. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03L/TS/B
MARK
23.13N/76.07W
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2302. SeaMule
it's getting squeezed...but the storm still has plenty of moisture to hang around and strengthen. Plenty of open water, and with the shift more to the east...look for a northern gulf coast event. How strong could it get? perhaps the storm will be compressed in size...but once it gets cranked up...and it will...cause it's in slow development...but still...development...it will eventually become a nice heat pump...and the warm waters it is over will begin to help it take over....that is....get caught between to dry masses....but create it's own ridge...

far from over..
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2301. Patrap
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting TampaSpin:


He is not a kid that you think he is....he was bustted the other nite.....so let him defend himself....
I was never busted. And yep I'm the kid you think I am. Ask Grothar.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Watches and warnings nudged north. Hmmm...
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Quoting hurrkat05:
LOL I BEEN TRYING TO TELL YOU PEOPLE WHAT BONNIE HAD TO GO THROUGH BUT SOME OF YOU INCLUDING DR MASTER WAS PREDICTING A HURRICANE...NO WAY BONNIES REACHES HURRICANE STATUS...NHC REALLY SCREWED UP THIS TIME SHUTTING DOWN OIL OPERATIONS IN THE GOM...



Boy you're not the sharpest tool in the shed are you. It was you at 4 pm CST today that said there was no way Bonnie would make it to a Tropical Storm before it hit Florida and here you are making more assumptions it won't make Hurricane Strength. Less than 90 minutes from the time you said it wouldn't make Tropical Storm strength it did so take off the caps and quit making assumptions you have no clue about. Geez you use to be able to find good information on this blog without having to weed though all the idiotic comments.
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I have been noticing here in Central Fl. the Cirrus clouds are starting to move in.. after a full couple of days of Crystal Clear sky's that had NO clouds.

I imagine that tomorrow I will wake up to very cloudy sky's....
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2294. JLPR2
Blog moving too fast and I'm too tired so goodnight everyone, I hope Bonnie falls apart at D-max and for Florida to receive just rains. ^^
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Quoting cchsweatherman:

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.
Awesome call there CCHS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting RainyEyes:
Totally agreed on that point weather...just saying that SOME may see that as it strengthening :) Our weatherman here said just stay inside regardless of warnings...get errands done early etc. The dotted cloud cover in the sky is making for a beautiful moon though.


Oh I know:-) Its all good!
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

well he pretty good at makeing educated guesses like levi so leave him the hell alone


He is not a kid that you think he is....he was bustted the other nite.....so let him defend himself....
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Stop the gossipping and backbiting on the blog, please. If u can't talk about the weather, then please go somewhere else.

[tired of immature and catty behaviour in the blog, regardless of age of blogger]
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2288. Patrap
If folks..esp tblogers who have been round a few years at least,would refrain from Quoting Obvious Instigators and "Trolls".

I hate that word,..its too easy to call a Id-it a troll.

Dont feed Monomania and one wont feed the person seeking a response.

Use the controls.

Its aint rocket science.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Man Bonnie just is not looking so good. A good thing actually.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

but i has out flow all it needs is a good d-max with all that 85 degree water


You can look at this and tell me thats good outflow...Link Really??
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WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LSU:


True. Don't listen to the "troll."

We'll listen to you and CCHS, from South Florida, tell us how the storm will hit South Florida. And we'll listen to the two Texas guys repeatedly claim that it's going to hit Texas.

Do you realize that when this blog is mocked on national TV, it's because of folks like you, definitely not anyone intelligent like StormW or Patrap.

wow uncalled for enjoy your 24 hr ban
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Quoting LSU:


True. Don't listen to the "troll."

We'll listen to you and CCHS, from South Florida, tell us how the storm will hit South Florida. And we'll listen to the two Texas guys repeatedly claim that it's going to hit Texas.

Do you realize that when this blog is mocked on national TV, it's because of folks like you, definitely not anyone intelligent like StormW or Patrap.


When has the blog ever been mocked on national TV?
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2280. Buhdog
LOL... well Baha thanks for asking! I am afraid to give my view on bonnie as I live in Cape Coral and anything I say that even remotely suggests a track 1 mile north of the the fct point......well you know what will be said! :) I think the track is good but I never guess intensity when the gulf stream and ULL are concerned. I rarely get them right, except Charley. I was the first in town with shutters (as the neighbors laughed) they ended up in my house and I looked like a prophet. My only good guess yet. I think it lands around Key largo and traverses the warm everglades and out around Marco. I hate to go farther...
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I hope Bonnie remembers to use her left hand turn signal.
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2278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 JUL 2010 Time : 014500 UTC
Lat : 23:21:28 N Lon : 76:26:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.7 /1003.0mb/ 39.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.7 2.9 2.9

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +0.0mb

Center Temp : -17.0C Cloud Region Temp : -37.3C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.50 ARC in LT GRAY

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT33 KNHC 230242
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032010
1100 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...CENTER OF BONNIE APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...NEW
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR SOUTHERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 76.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SSE OF NASSAU
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO ENGLEWOOD

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER
INLET INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTEREST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF BONNIE. WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.5 WEST. BONNIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND A FASTER FORWARD SPEED ARE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BONNIE IS EXPECTED
TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON FRIDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON THE FLORIDA COAST AND FLORIDA KEYS WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

RAINFALL...BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO
2 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OVER PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
KEYS...AND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Totally agreed on that point weather...just saying that SOME may see that as it strengthening :) Our weatherman here said just stay inside regardless of warnings...get errands done early etc. The dotted cloud cover in the sky is making for a beautiful moon though.
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2274. Levi32
Quoting AlexEmmett:

but i has out flow all it needs is a good d-max with all that 85 degree water


It's outflow is currently very limited and only found in the NW and SE quadrants. The system is getting stretched out in those directions as outflow is not found on the north or south side.
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now that they've changed it to watches are done 48 hours in advance of the first effects of the weather, there should be Tropical Storm Watches up by 10am tomorrow... is that right?
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sammy ur in wpb too all were getting is wind and waves right now
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Quoting thelmores:


Can we please keep the personal attacks to yourself! No place for that on this bog!

Thanks in advance! :)


Agreed Thelmores...CCHS - we got your back. No worries.
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Quoting Clearwater1:
If you can, stay at home. Better safe than sorry.


99.9% positive I'll be doing that...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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