Tropical Depression Three forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three has formed over the Bahama Islands, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Bonnie later today. Satellite images of TD 3 show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have slowly increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning. The surface circulation center is exposed to view, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest that are creating about 20 knots of wind shear. This wind shear is due to the counter-clockwise circulation of air around a large upper-level low pressure system over Florida that is moving west at about the same speed TD 3 is. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air is associated with the upper-level low pressure system, and this dry air is hindering development of TD 3. The storm is attempting to wrap a curved band of clouds around its center, on its west side. If TD 3 is able to do this, the center will be protected from shear and dry air, and more significant strengthening can occur. Surface observations in the Bahamas and several nearby ships have shown top winds in TD 3 of up to 35 mph, so the storm is close to the 40 mph winds needed to be classified as a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image showing dry air (brown colors) associated with the upper-level low over Florida. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west to west-northwest through Saturday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) had the advantage of having data from a flight of the NOAA jet last night, so we have higher confidence than usual in the track of TD 3 over the next two days. The location of TD 3's final landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast has the usual uncertainties for 3 - 4 days, with the various models calling for landfall somewhere between the upper Texas coast and the Florida Panhandle coast. Given the uncertainties, the move halt operations in the Deepwater Horizon blowout recovery effort are probably wise.

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. As long as this low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 20 knots and dry air into the storm. This will limit the intensification potential of TD 3 to no more than about 10 - 15 mph per day. If the upper-level low slow down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. Conversely, if the upper-level low picks up speed and pulls away from TD 3, the storm may be able to intensify at a faster rate. None of the computer models is calling for that to happen, but it would not take much of an additional separation between TD 3 and the upper level low to substantially reduce shear and allow TD 3 to intensify into a hurricane on Saturday. I put the odds of TD 3 making it to hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico at 20%.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and may barely have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update between 3 - 4 pm, when the Hurricane Hunters will be in the storm. I'll also speculate on the possible impact the storm will have on the oil spill region.

Jeff Masters

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Hmmm, how can 97L become Bonnie if 97L was supposed to be "dead"? Should I continue to ignore 97L and wait until August to get my hurricane preps in place? *snark off*
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classic comma....about to explode....cat three before the keys....

imho
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719. xcool
hello Bonnie lol
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40kt winds at the surface

AF306 174830 2255N 07539W 9785 00286 0112 +233 +074 053032 033 040 002 03
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Quoting TheKeeper:
<< Baton Rouge Here! Likewise interested in the S.LA impact!
So we got Slidell, Baton Rouge, Lafayette, Lake Charles...i think one of us might get hit..hope its me!(coming from a nuthead who gets excited over storms..and another friend whose anxious to have a hurricane party..)
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(From the NE at ~ 36.8 mph)


Copy dat Flight..'Switch to Omni Bravo for the Beacon..
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<------ blows up the pink balloons and begins passing out pink cigars... It's a GIRL!!! LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
The good news right now is the Storm is moving pretty darn fast at 15 mph and forecasted to speed up even more.
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Just took a closer look at satellite imagery and it seems that the circulation center moved itself under some new developing deep convection and that spiral banding is forming to the north. Definitely indicative of a strengthening system.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Re: Post 572.....Remove it.
.
The worst thing that anyone can do is to post something that the NHC says...that's not the truth.
.
If I had anything to say in the matter, and I do, this is an offense to be met with more than a 24hr. ban.


That is just incredibly irresponsible to give out flat false information and attribute it to the NHC. I happen to agree that the track will shift northward somewhat, but until the NHC actually adjusts the track, anyone claiming they have done so should be immediately banned imo.
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Quoting btwntx08:
still has time...
BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO
IN A DAY OR TWO.


wishcaster :)
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708. unf97
Quoting CybrTeddy:
39.0 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

Looks like we have Bonnie..


Yep. NHC may issue a special advisory shortly if they designate the system "Bonnie".
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting tkeith:
I believe we do too...


Glad I logged on now to check in. Does anyone have an update on the speed it's moving?
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TD-3
Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
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does google earth refresh information automatically from hurricane hunters mission?
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Quoting StonedCrab:


WSVN will be at the beach showing surfers


StoneCrab lol yes, they will...
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Time: 17:52:00Z
Coordinates: 22.7667N 75.5333W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.1 mb (~ 28.85 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 292 meters (~ 958 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.4 mb (~ 29.84 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 45° at 32 knots (From the NE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 23.2°C (~ 73.8°F)
Dew Pt: 12.1°C (~ 53.8°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
39.0 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

Looks like we have Bonnie..

A possible 45mph tropical storm...Finally!
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700. Skyepony (Mod)
AF306 is down to 958' so far..
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Latest recon reading (I think mine is working OK, if its a little behind, sorry!)

Coordinates: 22.7667N 75.533W
Acft. Static Air Press: 977.1mb (~28.85 inHg)
Acft Geopotential Hgt: 292 meters (~958 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1010.4mb (~29.84 in Hg)
D-val: -

Flt Lvl. Wind (30s): From 45 at 32 knots (From the NE at ~36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 23.2C (~73.8F)
Dew Pt: 12.1C (~53.8F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl Wind: 33 knots (~37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~40.2 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1mm/hr (~0.04 in/hr)
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I wouldn't be surprised to see 03L be a 50 mph system at 5PM.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
The Dropsondes have returned to Google Earth!
All is well
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<< Baton Rouge Here! Likewise interested in the S.LA impact!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
39.0 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

Looks like we have Bonnie..
I believe we do too...
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**goes out and buys a case of salt** Some of the stuff that gets posted on here is awful. Those people sayin wild stuff need to hush it.
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Once established as a tropical storm, the NHC can issue a special weather bulletin announcing its upgrade (or its arrival- it's a baby girl-Bonnie).
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/


Thank you
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Quoting cheetaking:
For those who want to know how the ULL is moving relative to TD3, I have compared the water vapor loop from 12 hours ago with the most recent, and marked the position of both systems. Here are the results:



So it appears to me that the ULL is indeed, for the time being at least, moving faster than TD3, and sinking southward.



nice comment....look for gradual strengthening of the storm...as it becomes Bonnie by 5 pm...and then watch a slow steady strengthening all the way into the gulf. it will be interesting to see what the ULL does...but my take on it is that it will slowly move out of the way...impeding the rate of strength of Bonnie to be...

i maintain a major hurricane is gonna happen....i think the ULL will weaken and phase out left of the picture..especially as Bonnie gets in the GOM....

uh ohhhhh
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Hi neighbors..........SLIDELL, LA here also!! We are just tracking away!!
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Quoting poknsnok:
a raggedy sheared apart mess is 97L


first off it is TD 3, 2nd it is about to be TS Bonnie

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Quoting neonlazer:
Lafayette checkin in XD


I'm 25 miles to your West....i believe we will be right in the cross hairs of this one
Member Since: August 29, 2006 Posts: 22 Comments: 1352

Hurricane Local Statement for THREE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
WTUS82 KMFL 221652
HLSMFL

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS ON FRIDAY...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...COASTAL COLLIER...MAINLAND MONROE...COASTAL MIAMI
DADE AND FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...INLAND COLLIER...INLAND MIAMI DADE AND METRO MIAMI
DADE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES OUT
60 NAUTICAL MILES INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
COASTAL PALM BEACH...COASTAL BROWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS...GLADES...HENDRY...INLAND PALM BEACH...METRO PALM
BEACH...INLAND BROWARD AND METRO BROWARD.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS THE WATERS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AS WELL AS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE SPECIFIED
AREAS.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 11 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9N...LONGITUDE 75.0W. THIS WAS ABOUT
420 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI FL...OR ABOUT 520 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF NAPLES FL. THE STORM IS MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
AT 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON FRIDAY AS A TROPICAL STORM. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...THE MAIN IMPACTS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA ARE EXPECTED TO
BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
60 MPH. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF
TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF MIAMI DADE...MAINLAND MONROE...AND MAY BE COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COASTAL COLLIER COUNTIES. THESE WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF CAUSING DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES AS WELL AS DOWNED POWER LINES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREA WIDE ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH
RANGE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLOODING
MAINLY IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE AREA AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE STRAITS.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PERSONS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD IMPLEMENT THEIR PREPAREDNESS
PLAN IMMEDIATELY.

PERSONS IN THE WATCH AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND BE READY TO IMPLEMENT THEIR
PREPAREDNESS PLAN ON SHORT NOTICE.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI AT 6 PM.

FLZ069-075-173-174-231700-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL COLLIER-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND SECTION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 36 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
FROM LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS
REPRESENT A LIMITED THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES, ESPECIALLY THOSE
THAT ARE UNANCHORED. A FEW HOUSES MAY HAVE MINOR DAMAGE TO ROOF
SHINGLES AND SIDING. THESE WINDS ARE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING CARPORTS,
AWNINGS, POOL CAGES AND LANAI SCREENS.

UNSECURED LIGHTWEIGHT ITEMS WILL BE BLOWN AROUND, POSSIBLY
CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE. WINDS WILL BECOME DANGEROUS ON BRIDGES
AND CAUSEWAYS, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

SOME ELECTRICAL WIRES WILL BE BLOWN DOWN, AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH
ABOVE GROUND LINES.

MOST NEWLY PLANTED TREES AND SHRUBS WILL BE DAMAGED OR UPROOTED.
SMALL BRANCHES AND NUMEROUS SMALL TWIGS WILL BREAK OFF TREES.
MANY PALM FRONDS WILL BE BLOWN DOWN.

$$

FLZ070-073-074-231700-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.W.0001.000000T0000Z-100724T0600Z/
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND SECTION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 29 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WIND GUSTS IN SQUALLS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE
EXPECTED. THESE CAN STILL CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO SMALL TREES...CAR
PORTS...UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS...AND UNANCHORED OLDER MOBILE HOMES.

$$

FLZ168-172-231700-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.1003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND SECTION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
VERY SMALL.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL SOME POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

$$

FLZ063-066>068-071-072-231700-
/O.CON.KMFL.TI.A.0001.000000T0000Z-100724T0600Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-
METRO BROWARD-
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
WIND SECTION UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
VERY SMALL.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL SOME POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

$$

AMZ630-651-671-231700-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND SECTION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 35 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
WINDS...EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS SOUTHEAST OF
MIAMI DADE...ARE THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 8 TO 10 FEET SEAS.

$$

GMZ656-657-676-231700-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.W.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
WIND SECTION UPDATED.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 38 PERCENT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 6 TO 8 FEET SEAS
MAINLY OFFSHORE.

$$

AMZ610-650-670-231700-
/O.CON.KMFL.TR.A.0001.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT
20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
1252 PM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED WIND SECTION.

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
VERY SMALL.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE PASSES NEARBY...THE THREAT FOR
SUSTAINED HIGH WINDS SHOULD NOT INCREASE. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL SOME POSSIBILITY FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. SINCE
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...CLOSELY MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

$$








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Page last modified: Thursday, 22-Jul-2010 16:52:17 GMT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting goavs4:
If you are looking at the HH data in Google Earth:


Mine wasn't working until just a second ago when I right clicked on "Recon Data for the Atlantic Basin" and selected Refresh, then I started getting valid current data

YAY! Google earth is finally workng!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
.4 N and .1 e was the movement of TD3 and it keeps trucking NW while strengthing at the sametime. This will not hit the Keys as it is now running out of time to tunr and head there way. Looks likely SE FL will get this then to NOLA or the Panhandle.
Still moving wnw at 15mph
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39.0 knots (~ 44.8 mph)
Tropical Storm

Looks like we have Bonnie..
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Link

HHH are reading 40mph Tropical Storm
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WHAT ABOUT TAMPA WILL THE AREA GET AFFECTED
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a raggedy sheared apart mess is 97L
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1751Z SFMR

36 knots
(~ 41.4 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you are looking at the HH data in Google Earth:


Mine wasn't working until just a second ago when I right clicked on "Recon Data for the Atlantic Basin" and selected Refresh, then I started getting valid current data
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
<< slidell la here too lol
Lafayette checkin in XD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon descending, already found 45mph non-contaminated SFMR winds.

000
URNT15 KNHC 221751
AF306 02BBA INVEST HDOB 22 20100722
174230 2311N 07549W 6246 04104 0136 +031 -137 066013 014 /// /// 03
174300 2309N 07548W 6517 03760 0140 +052 -124 074013 014 /// /// 03
174330 2307N 07546W 6930 03255 0147 +078 -111 079016 017 /// /// 03
174400 2305N 07545W 7308 02808 0139 +105 -094 068016 016 /// /// 03
174430 2303N 07544W 7588 02495 0143 +123 -078 066021 022 /// /// 03
174500 2301N 07543W 7972 02080 0141 +150 -059 071023 025 /// /// 03
174530 2259N 07542W 8309 01715 0126 +174 -034 076025 026 /// /// 03
174600 2257N 07542W 8500 01532 0133 +182 -045 066028 029 /// /// 03
174630 2258N 07544W 8871 01157 0139 +193 +003 070033 034 /// /// 03
174700 2259N 07543W 9239 00799 0128 +205 +029 062031 031 /// /// 03
174730 2257N 07542W 9538 00509 0116 +219 +047 055032 033 /// /// 03
174800 2256N 07540W 9733 00338 0117 +229 +062 053030 031 /// /// 03
174830 2255N 07539W 9785 00286 0112 +233 +074 053032 033 040 002 03
174900 2254N 07538W 9689 00375 0113 +228 +085 052032 032 039 003 00
174930 2253N 07537W 9765 00302 0110 +234 +094 051032 034 039 002 00
175000 2251N 07536W 9765 00301 0108 +235 +101 048031 032 038 003 00
175030 2250N 07535W 9767 00298 0107 +234 +107 043029 031 037 002 03
175100 2249N 07534W 9772 00293 0107 +235 +113 047032 033 036 003 00
175130 2248N 07533W 9765 00298 0105 +233 +117 045032 033 034 002 03
175200 2246N 07532W 9771 00292 0104 +232 +121 045032 033 035 001 00

This is getting interesting :D
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
03L looking impressive on rainbow with the banding.



Convection is waning a bit this afternoon, but that is to be expected as we head into DMin. The circulation is fairly well established, but it just needs to build convection. ULL is killing its ability to strengthen. Now that it's moving a little more toward the north, it might help its chances of strengthening.
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Thank God Bonnie will not have a lot of time, she is winding up fast on the visible. I know I'm jumping the gun with the name but I bet it gets one by or before 5.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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