Tropical Depression Three forms

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:42 PM GMT on July 22, 2010

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Tropical Depression Three has formed over the Bahama Islands, and appears poised to become Tropical Storm Bonnie later today. Satellite images of TD 3 show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms that have slowly increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning. The surface circulation center is exposed to view, thanks to strong upper-level winds out of the southwest that are creating about 20 knots of wind shear. This wind shear is due to the counter-clockwise circulation of air around a large upper-level low pressure system over Florida that is moving west at about the same speed TD 3 is. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air is associated with the upper-level low pressure system, and this dry air is hindering development of TD 3. The storm is attempting to wrap a curved band of clouds around its center, on its west side. If TD 3 is able to do this, the center will be protected from shear and dry air, and more significant strengthening can occur. Surface observations in the Bahamas and several nearby ships have shown top winds in TD 3 of up to 35 mph, so the storm is close to the 40 mph winds needed to be classified as a tropical storm.


Figure 1. Water vapor satellite image showing dry air (brown colors) associated with the upper-level low over Florida. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Track Forecast for TD 3
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and TD 3 should progress steadily to the west to west-northwest through Saturday. This will bring the storm ashore over the Florida Keys or South Florida on Friday, and into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. The latest set of model runs from 2am EDT (6Z) had the advantage of having data from a flight of the NOAA jet last night, so we have higher confidence than usual in the track of TD 3 over the next two days. The location of TD 3's final landfall along the Gulf of Mexico coast has the usual uncertainties for 3 - 4 days, with the various models calling for landfall somewhere between the upper Texas coast and the Florida Panhandle coast. Given the uncertainties, the move halt operations in the Deepwater Horizon blowout recovery effort are probably wise.

Intensity Forecast for TD 3
The primary detriment to development of TD 3 for the next three days will be the presence of the large upper-level low to its west. As long as this low remains in its present location, relative to TD 3, it will bring wind shear of about 20 knots and dry air into the storm. This will limit the intensification potential of TD 3 to no more than about 10 - 15 mph per day. If the upper-level low slow down a bit, relative to TD 3, more shear will affect the storm, potentially weakening it. Conversely, if the upper-level low picks up speed and pulls away from TD 3, the storm may be able to intensify at a faster rate. None of the computer models is calling for that to happen, but it would not take much of an additional separation between TD 3 and the upper level low to substantially reduce shear and allow TD 3 to intensify into a hurricane on Saturday. I put the odds of TD 3 making it to hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico at 20%.

98L
An area of disturbed weather (98L) has developed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche. This system is under a low amount of shear, 5 - 10 knots, and may barely have enough time to organize into a tropical depression before making landfall along the Mexican coast a few hundred miles south of the Texas border on Friday.

Resources for the BP oil disaster
Map of oil spill location from the NOAA Satellite Services Division
My post, What a hurricane would do the Deepwater Horizon oil spill
My post on the Southwest Florida "Forbidden Zone" where surface oil will rarely go
My post on what oil might do to a hurricane
NOAA's interactive mapping tool to overlay wind and ocean current forecasts, oil locations, etc.
Gulf Oil Blog from the UGA Department of Marine Sciences
Oil Spill Academic Task Force
University of South Florida Ocean Circulation Group oil spill forecasts
ROFFS Deepwater Horizon page
Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the University of Miami

Next update
I'll have an update between 3 - 4 pm, when the Hurricane Hunters will be in the storm. I'll also speculate on the possible impact the storm will have on the oil spill region.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting VoodooRue:
Jim Cantore just tweeted: "In North Miami Beach to begin coverage on TD3."


Miami is 100% safe from Bonnie
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1020. Drakoen
Recon heading towards the center.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 30823
my computer shows the forcast points have changed and are now showing the more north track
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Quoting Tazmanian:



nop

18:42:00Z 22.417N 74.850W 991.2 mb
(~ 29.27 inHg) 137 meters
(~ 449 feet) 1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 156° at 23 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 26.4 mph) 24.8°C
(~ 76.6°F) 19.8°C
(~ 67.6°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.8 knots (~ 30.9


oh im sorry 1006.NINE, basically its 1007mb
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
1016. BFG308
Quoting VoodooRue:
Jim Cantore just tweeted: "In North Miami Beach to begin coverage on TD3."


He took his talents to North Beach?
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Recon found a pressure reading of 1006.9 and possibly decreasing.

184200 2225N 07451W 9912 00137 0069 +248 +198 156023 024 028 002 00
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
995. PensacolaDoug 2:48 PM EDT on July 22, 2010

Looks like Joe agrees with what I'm saying to some degree.


I personally would take Joe with a grain of salt but you can use him if you wish.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
1013. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1820 UTC THU JUL 22 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE THREE (AL032010) 20100722 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100722 1800 100723 0600 100723 1800 100724 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 74.9W 23.0N 77.5W 24.4N 80.0W 25.3N 82.4W
BAMD 22.2N 74.9W 23.4N 77.6W 24.7N 80.8W 26.0N 84.1W
BAMM 22.2N 74.9W 23.2N 77.4W 24.4N 80.0W 25.5N 82.6W
LBAR 22.2N 74.9W 23.0N 76.9W 24.1N 79.6W 25.4N 82.5W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 38KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100724 1800 100725 1800 100726 1800 100727 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 26.6N 84.9W 28.6N 89.6W 30.8N 93.3W 33.0N 94.6W
BAMD 27.4N 87.3W 30.7N 92.3W 34.0N 95.0W 36.4N 92.5W
BAMM 26.6N 85.4W 28.7N 90.3W 31.1N 94.2W 33.1N 96.2W
LBAR 26.8N 85.5W 30.1N 89.9W 34.2N 90.6W 37.8N 85.0W
SHIP 46KTS 53KTS 57KTS 57KTS
DSHP 46KTS 53KTS 32KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 22.2N LONCUR = 74.9W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 21.5N LONM12 = 73.8W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 21.1N LONM24 = 71.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
The Miami should be safe then if Cantore is there...LOL
Member Since: September 18, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1074
Quoting Hurricanes101:
pressure of 1007mb found by recon



nop

18:42:00Z 22.417N 74.850W 991.2 mb
(~ 29.27 inHg) 137 meters
(~ 449 feet) 1006.9 mb
(~ 29.73 inHg) - From 156° at 23 knots
(From the SSE at ~ 26.4 mph) 24.8°C
(~ 76.6°F) 19.8°C
(~ 67.6°F) 24 knots
(~ 27.6 mph) 28 knots
(~ 32.2 mph) 2 mm/hr
(~ 0.08 in/hr) 26.8 knots (~ 30.9
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Fay?

Fay must have been trapped inside the shield! XP
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1009. leo305
Conditions are becoming very favorable for EXPLOSIVE development tonight.. water temps near 90 at some areas, dry air is fading too

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.html

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Quoting VoodooRue:
Jim Cantore just tweeted: "In North Miami Beach to begin coverage on TD3."
Well now we know where its headed...
Member Since: July 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Jim Cantore just tweeted: "In North Miami Beach to begin coverage on TD3."
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pressure of 1007mb found by recon
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
995. PensacolaDoug 2:48 PM EDT on July 22, 2010

Looks like Joe agrees with what I'm saying to some degree.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting JamesSA:


Huh? It says 1 to 2 inches...

It's in the text:

Current forecast data suggest a several day period of very heavy rainfall moving into the central and northern Sierra Madre Oriental, including across areas which received several feet of rainfall from the remnants of Hurricane Alex and Tropical Depression #2. These areas include portions of the Mexican States of Nuevo Leon and Coahuila, perhaps extending northwest into Chihuahua. Another 10 to 20 inches of rain is possible into early next week in these areas; such rainfall would eventually flow into the system of reservoirs and dams in Mexico and along the Rio Grande, ultimately reaching the Lower Rio Grande. Such a situation, if it develops, would result in continued high water and some degree of flooding along and near the River and associated Floodways through the end of July and into the first weeks of August.
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Quoting Jax82:
UNF97 and SSGuy I live right here in Jax Beach and I tell you my grass could use some good ole rain! The past week its been bone dry and hot. Seems like it rains inland and dies before it gets to my house. Cant complain about the sunshine though :)


Hi Jax82!

You are right up the road from me... it certainly has been a hot and dry summer so far here at the beach - I remember the days of regular afternoon thunderstorms years ago...would be nice to have those again!
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True dat! But I've been here for EVERYTHING since, lol!
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Quoting StormHype:


For NOLA, he should be packing a 9mm on each side as well.



ROFLMAO!!! So True!!!
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
IMO... I think the NHC may adjust the track slightly north... but not as far north as Miami or Ft. Lauderdale. Probably to Key Largo or Florida City/Homestead at the most.
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
THE FLORIDA DEFLECTOR SHEILD HAS WORKED AGAIN! NO HURRICANES OR STRONG TROPICAL STORMS MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE 2005.

lol

HOPEFULLY THIS AVOIDES THE OIL SPILL, HOPEFULLY IT HITS TEXAS, AVOIDING THE OIL.


Fay?
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Quoting StormHype:


For NOLA, he should be packing a 9mm on each side as well.
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 13
For those who may have missed this earlier. Joe Bastardi's take on the tropics this afternoon.



THURSDAY 1 PM
I DONT AGREE WITH TPC.

That is an almost impossible track to maintain this. The path south of Florida bucks right into the shear for one and for two is well south of where this is now. This should be named Bonnie, because it has had tropical storm conditions for 2 days northeast of it and has a closed rotary circulation. But there should be little weather in the keys out of this, as the center passes near Miami and the worst weather will be Miami to Ft Pierce.

And I dont think it will be stronger in the gulf wind wise than it is in Florida. The fact it its forming on the north side of the ellipse of low pressure that is moving across. The center will weaken over land and the southern end of it may then be what you can track through the gulf as the lowest pressure.

Keep in mind the further north path is a better one for intensification but ( or put it this way, organization). But I expect TPC to have to adjust the track north to my way of thinking. That path wont work as you wont get it to go there and keep in together given the parameters involved.

The system in the southwest gulf is hustling its way toward a storm, but will go ashore and unless it stalls TPC will not do much with that given their track record. This could be a disaster in Mexico though with rain as the improving dynamics mean it will carry itself well until it gets into the mountains and should be treated as a dying hurricane rain wise, rather than a disturbance.

Notice what is going on folks... the upper pattern in the tropics is changing rapidly with smaller closed lows and ridges between now taking over and backing west. Look out, the track race when it starts will leave the feint of heart by the road. This is not yet the start, just the upward pulse of the MJO, but its coming.

ciao for now *****
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Quoting Labayourambler:
What are the chances that this thing will become a hurricane in the Gulf and where along Louisiana will a landfall can be???
Anywhere along the central gulf coast East texas to Florida panhandle to be broad..i think once it turns west we will get better idea of where it will go hopefully. But the models have plenty of time to adjust.
Member Since: July 5, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 254
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


2AM TWO
8AM TWO
Special TWO




thanks
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Quoting treehuggingsister:
Cantore was close enough when we went through Fran just about three months to the day after Bertha in '96 (He was in Wrightsville Beach, while we were just up the road in Jacksonville.) Now, THAT was a summer.

Or I THOUGHT it was, until I got to Pensacola, in '99.


But you missed Erin and Opal.
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Quoting ElConando:


Zing! :) hehe how are you?


I am good... and apparently on a roll :)
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35 knt wind detected. Likely 40mph at 5pm unless something drastic changes.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
whats the ch of 98L be comeing TD 4?
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You can see some very nice outflow developing on the NORTH WEST side of TS bonnie.

Tonight may be eruptive.. we are near the peak of DMIN, and the storm is organizing both convectively, and at the surface..
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Come on guys,long as the tops of the ts's are being blown off by the ULL this thing will not amount to more than a average TS. Take a look at the latest visible images.
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Cantore was close enough when we went through Fran just about three months to the day after Bertha in '96 (He was in Wrightsville Beach, while we were just up the road in Jacksonville.) Now, THAT was a summer.

Or I THOUGHT it was, until I got to Pensacola, in '99.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
can i see the two from this AM be for we had TD 3 thanks


2AM TWO
8AM TWO
Special TWO
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I am sorry.. I post information based on facts and posted models.. not on supposition and guesses.


Zing! :) hehe how are you?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting 1900hurricane:
NWS Brownsville on 98L flooding:

Up to 20 inches in the Rio Grande Basin?!?!


Huh? It says 1 to 2 inches...
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What are the chances that this thing will become a hurricane in the Gulf and where along Louisiana will a landfall can be???
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Looking at the visible pics, I do believe the llc may become exposed this afternoon.
agree
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976. unf97
Quoting Jax82:
UNF97 and SSGuy I live right here in Jax Beach and I tell you my grass could use some good ole rain! The past week its been bone dry and hot. Seems like it rains inland and dies before it gets to my house. Cant complain about the sunshine though :)


Well, I live out near JIA and I have only received just a little more than an inch of rain for the month, and trhat occured mostly on one day in a thunderstorm. So, yes, it is bone dry. Hopefully, a more typical summer pattern will return in August for our area.
Member Since: September 25, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1193
Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey buddy that plot should be much further north and a little east.


I am sorry.. I post information based on facts and posted models.. not on supposition and guesses.
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Quoting Jax82:
UNF97 and SSGuy I live right here in Jax Beach and I tell you my grass could use some good ole rain! The past week its been bone dry and hot. Seems like it rains inland and dies before it gets to my house. Cant complain about the sunshine though :)
I just moved from Tampa to Jax a month ago, and I haven't experienced a thunderstorm yet.... it's better to be a weather fanatic in Tampa for sure.
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Its already well north of the projected path!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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