Hurricane Hunters find no depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 7:37 PM GMT on September 29, 2005

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The Hurricane center released this special advisory at 3 pm EDT today:

"Data from an Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft investigating the area of disturbed weather located between the Cayman Islands and Honduras indicate that the system remains disorganized and that a tropical depression has not formed. A large area of light and variable winds with a minimum pressure of 1009 mb...Or 29.80 inches... was detected about 170 miles southwest of Grand Cayman island. However... there is no thunderstorm activity collocated with the area of lowest pressure."

So, we will have to wait another day to see if this system will make up its mind whether or not it wants to be Stan the Man or Mr. Wimpy Tropical Blob. I still believe it will form into a tropical depression, but it's looking dicey for it to be anything more than a depression by the time it encounters the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday. Once Stan/Mr. Wimpy Tropical Blob crosses the Yucatan, it may have new wind shear and dry air to overcome. If the system does manage to develop, the Mexican Gulf Coast or Texas look like the most likely targets.


Figure 1. The BAMM and GFDL models take the Caribbean disturbance into the Yucatan Peninsula. These models initialiazed the system about 100 miles too far to the southwest with their 2 pm and 8 am runs, respectively.

Southeast U.S.
Several of the global computer models have been persistently forecasting for the past three days that a tropical storm may form in the waters east of the Carolinas or Florida early next week. Any system forming in this region would be forced westward or west-southwestward into the Southeast Coast by a strong ridge of high pressure building in. There is as yet no sign of this development occurring, but we should watch the waters off of the Southeast coast this weekend for development.

Africa westward
The ITCZ is active in the region extending from the African coast westwards for 1000 miles. There is a concentrated area of thunderstorms 600 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands that may slowly develop into a tropical depression over the next few days as it drifts northward.

Hawaii
Hawaii is watching Tropical Storm Kenneth, which is expected to pass though the Islands Friday and Saturday as a tropical depression, and may bring heavy rains and the threat of flash flooding to the islands. Tropical depressions that have passed though the islands in previous years have caused serious flooding problems.

Baja
The Baja Peninsula is watching newly-formed Tropical Tropical Storm Otis, which may strike the central Baja Peninsula on Sunday. Otis is also a threat to bring heavy rains and flooding to Arizona and northern Mexico early next week.

China
Super Typhoon Langwang, a small but intense typhoon with 150 mph sustained winds, is headed towards China and may hit northern Taiwan as a Category 4 storm on Sunday. Longwang is expected to gradually weaken but still hit mainland China on Monday as a Category 3 storm.

Jeff Masters

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300. FLCrackerGirl
2:05 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
DR M HAS NEW BLOG UP NOW
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
299. billsfaninsofla
1:49 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
CoconutCreek... LOL.. I thought the same thing about the fireball in the sky, I guess it as visible over Palm Beach, Broward & Dade.. maybe I'll go get a lotto quick pick as well.. we're supposed to be getting alot of rain (according to Channel 10)..
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 6035
298. Geschworen
1:33 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
"lets go stan, lets go stan"
297. oriondarkwood
1:32 PM GMT on September 30, 2005
Maybe if we chant and cheer Stan will appear (LOL)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
296. leftyy420
8:49 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
cool man. we can do lil halo tomm than lol. catch u than i b on here around 12 or so. should have a recon at 2pm or so
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
295. leftyy420
8:48 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
naw man. i am dead tired lol. i want to go rub the wife lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
294. StormJunkie
8:48 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Alright. I am off tomorrow so I should see ya some then.

Peace.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
293. leftyy420
8:47 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
alright sj. i need sleep. i will catch u tomm
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
292. StormJunkie
8:46 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Lobby? As there is no real need for typing right now.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
291. leftyy420
8:45 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
my lol was at ur uncertainty of ur fix. this lol is for ur spy ware LOL
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
290. StormJunkie
8:42 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
What lol? My fix? Is it that far off? I admit I need a vis to really tell, but the banding looks to lead close to this spot? Or is it late and I am losing it?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
289. StormJunkie
8:41 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Yea, it is a good bit better. Also loaded the Carib and have both running now. Carib is already looping. Good bit better. Man people were all up in my crap with their damn malware and spyware and most other wares that are not good.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
288. leftyy420
8:39 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
lol sj
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
287. leftyy420
8:39 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
sounds better
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
286. StormJunkie
8:38 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
I like a 19 80 fix, but that is most likely wrong.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
285. StormJunkie
8:36 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Alright back. So they shifted the L on the floater? Looks to be close to where the BAMM has it maybe a little N of the Bamm though. Started the floater just prior to bringing up new window for WG and typing this and it is already loaded. Geuss that is a good bit better.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
284. leftyy420
8:33 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
sounds good
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
283. StormJunkie
8:31 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Back. Still taking some time to load the floater. Damnit. Not as much time though. Spybot and Adaware found all kinds of crap. Gonna do a restart and see if that helps anymore.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
282. leftyy420
8:11 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
peace flg
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
281. FLGLFCST
8:08 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
OK, Im out for a bit... See you guys soon.
280. FLGLFCST
8:06 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
The NHC is just toying with my emotions... LOL
279. leftyy420
8:05 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
no i see it too. those things get refreshed every hour or so but i don't pay them much attention. i need some vis sat images to be sure where it is
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
278. FLGLFCST
8:00 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
I must be crazy... Did they move the marker for the low? I looked at it on NHC and it appears to have moved... Just a tad north and a ways west??? Lefty take a look and see if I have gone crazy...
277. leftyy420
7:59 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
yeah flg, looks like an eye wall cycle on him.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
276. FLGLFCST
7:57 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
HAHAHAHAHAHHA LOL!!! LONGWONG... Like that doesnt imply the same thing!!!
275. leftyy420
7:56 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
sj thats probly how it is pronounced. it is a japanese name and our pronuncuation in english is different
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
274. FLGLFCST
7:56 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Dang, its gotta be bigger than it was last night... Looks really active too...
273. StormJunkie
7:55 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Be back in a few. Going to try and get my POS fixed.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
272. StormJunkie
7:54 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
They are calling Longwang Longwong on TWC. Punks.lol.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
271. leftyy420
7:54 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
flg thats what i spotted couple days ago. thats where i came up with my preliminary track


yes sj, ull can become warm care and spawn a cyclone. thats how we got harvey. so thats what i have been watching to dsee if it would spawn a cyclone. usually some t-storms will form and persist generating a surface low as the ull dissipates. the cold front now moving off the coast is going to dissipate that ull and if u look at the ir u can see some t-storms to its south-east that have persisted for some time
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
270. FLGLFCST
7:53 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Dont pay, free versions of both work like a champ.
269. StormJunkie
7:53 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Did you pay FLG or use the free version?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
268. FLGLFCST
7:50 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Adaware and Spybot are what I used, they rule and will do yah right!
267. StormJunkie
7:48 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
So you are saying the upper level low could make it to the mid and low level? And that is what the models are seeing?

Adaware and spybot sound good?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
266. FLGLFCST
7:48 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Ok, not so much NE and North. I think WNW and NW are a good guess. From what Ive seen in the past when they exit over western cuba the develop that right hand curve, as opposed to the left hand one BAMM is showing, there are many factors that Im sure influence this, and anything is possible.

But I also had another question for yah, the high that was supposed to protect the central gulf, I thought I saw picture earlier that showed it did not set up the way they were saying it would, so it left a good portion of the gulf coast unprotected... Have you seen anything?
265. leftyy420
7:47 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
its not a split.its a closed cirulation. the upper level high is generating alot of convergence on the north side of the low. you can see the north convection seem to want to rotate the wrong way. the key is the convection building right ontop of there "l". thats what we have not seen in days.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
264. leftyy420
7:45 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
yeah sj. u should do that. i have a couple programs io got free when i signed up for aol and i was shocked at the crap on my computer. i had 300 programs of adware. i shit u not lol.

no i think the ull that moved away from stan the man, is what will spawn the so called east coast system. if u look at wv and ir it looks like the trof is abosrbing the ull and the convection seems to be consolidating. but i think we should have a better idea on if that will evelop by tomm night.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
263. StormJunkie
7:45 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Ok, loaded. Man Lefty, that sure as hell looks like a split to me! I think the models have been trying to track the southern portion. I know, I am off my rocker, but wierder stuff has happened.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
262. leftyy420
7:42 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
i was feeling u till u started talking bout all that n and ne stuff lol. its going to have to do with timming of the next trof and the strength of the ridge but i could see a wnw than nw movement as it made landfall somewhere. need to see what the next models say
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
261. StormJunkie
7:41 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
I still think that Stan may be what the models are seeing moving up the E coast, but I know this sounds crazy.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
260. StormJunkie
7:40 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Naw, I think I need some good spyware that does not have spyware in it. Something is eating my resources. I am just too lazy to go get spy bot and adaware. REally should do that though.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
259. FLGLFCST
7:39 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Which means, that the BAMM needs to move about the distance it is from the GDFL north east and it would be in the right place, you saw the huge model track change with the last shift now try to imagine it if it moved north east approximately the same distance it is currently from the GDFL start point. That would exit it over western cuba, and if Im correct in what Im seeing it would not move in a left hand curve, but however a right hand curve (i.e. WNW, then NNW, and finally Due N, and then north east) then again all just a guess, but thats what we are doing here right? Throwing around ideas?
258. leftyy420
7:36 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
lol if i was there i probly have it fixed in 30 mins lol. i just need to touch it
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
257. StormJunkie
7:35 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Stillllll waiting for it to load, that is why I asked. Just wish I could figure out what was slowing me down.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
256. leftyy420
7:34 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
earlier they had it at 18n and 83.5w so its a move way to the east. i personally think they just close their eyes and smack a "L" on there anywhere lol
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
255. leftyy420
7:33 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
look at the floater. that is about 18.5 n 81.5w
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
254. StormJunkie
7:32 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
So what is the latest center fix? Give or take a couple of deg.lol. Saw that post earlier lefty.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
253. leftyy420
7:29 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
wow flg they moved the center of the low to where i though it was. and now some nice bnlow up of convection right ontop of it. this is the best we have seen out of the crazy week of watchibng this thing
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
252. leftyy420
7:27 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
yeah flg.


hey sj. same thing as always. will he or won't he lol. also the track the bamm takes is the type of track i felt for a few days now. just didn't seem like based on the global models that she would take that track the bamm had. we will see
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
251. StormJunkie
7:24 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Evening all. Bamm shifted way N.

So what is the latest thinking on the blob? And elswhere?
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16875
250. FLGLFCST
7:23 AM GMT on September 30, 2005
Oh HERE WE GO!!!! LOL, Its moving north (and if your right Lefty it will continue this trend)Also noted, the Bamm is STILL looks to far south from the look of it, I wonder what it would show if it were just a bit farther north? I would bet it would show an exit over west cuba and a WNW track towards the central gulf coast... Whatca think?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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