97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting scott39:
Man you are soooo gone! poof poof poof I hope everybody else does the same thing to you today!


We have.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Shear's lowering, it should start getting its act together again pretty soon, it already is a little.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
wind shear of 10 - 20 knots will kill invest 97L TODAY.
Man you are soooo gone! poof poof poof I hope everybody else does the same thing to you today!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Ike, do you think the TWO percentages are derived mostly from what is expected or rather current state of the invest?

I think all of us sometimes mistakenly associated the percentage on the TWO with current-state, like it is representative of how it is looking, rather than what the potential holds.


It is the chance of it developing over the next 48 hours.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Why? Is that a wish or is there some reason you have in addition to the Alex precedent I mentioned?


The models don't agree with the steering patterns.

Quoting seflagamma:
Thank you Dr Masters for the update.


Hi everyone,

well I fully expected to wake up this morning to a TD at least...but I see 97L is not looking so good and now may not become a storm when it comes to or below Florida....
We will continue to watch and wait and we should be prepared with most items by now..

Will hold off on the Last minute things a few more days...don't think we will need them with this one.

Enjoy your Wednesday!


Do them anyway.

Quoting FLdewey:
My tropical storm kit is beer in the fridge and a pantry full of snacks.

As far as jasoniscoolman2010x goes just ignore him and please stop quoting him. He's on par with the other one.


LOL, spoken like a true redneck!
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
MH09, do you think this could develop into a TD/TS before reaching FL?
Yes im not miami but yes it can reach tropical storm status before a florida landfall
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
MH09, do you think this could develop into a TD/TS before reaching FL?
Yes, and a pretty strong TS at that. I'm in perfect alignment with what the SHIPS is showing in the 12z run.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Good Morning. 97L Looks in need of convection, and the environment is getting better for development. Tomorrow is 97L's time to shine. Today is its recovery time.
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bjdsrg
can you show me the model runs you are talking about?
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wind shear of 10 - 20 knots will kill invest 97L TODAY.
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Weatherguy3 - nice job on the video. Very informative.
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MH09, do you think this could develop into a TD/TS before reaching FL?
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 528
It temporarily poofed, but expect a come back
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Quoting bjdsrq:


All the latest model runs shifted north (8am.) The initialization point is dead on center. If this holds for next few runs, likely Miami will only get offshore breeze and 1/2 inch of rain. The models with Alex were errored to the north early on in genesis, so it will be interesting to see how they trend on consecutive runs here.
If you look, an obvious shift to the left was noted between the 06z and 12z runs.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
All models once again doing the wind shear wiper affect. At 12z an evident shift to the left (south Florida) is noted. Also keep in mind that the GFDL and HWRF is from 06z, thus the northerly track.



What do you mean by 'wind shear wiper'?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24468
Quoting StormW:


You win what? This isn't about "winning" here on Doc's blog. It's about providing accurate, scientific based information for the folks that come here for information on these systems...folks who are the layperson so to speak.

DITTO
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I can't tell from this image, what is the shear over 97L?

Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
All models once again doing the windshield wiper effect. At 12z an evident shift to the left (south Florida) is noted. Also keep in mind that the GFDL and HWRF is from 06z, thus the northerly track.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
My tropical storm kit is beer in the fridge and a pantry full of snacks.

As far as jasoniscoolman2010x goes just ignore him and please stop quoting him. He's on par with the other one.
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Thank you Dr Masters for the update.


Hi everyone,

well I fully expected to wake up this morning to a TD at least...but I see 97L is not looking so good and now may not become a storm when it comes to or below Florida....
We will continue to watch and wait and we should be prepared with most items by now..

Will hold off on the Last minute things a few more days...don't think we will need them with this one.

Enjoy your Wednesday!
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Quoting cg2916:


They should go further left.
Yes they should i see a track from as far north as west palm beach to as south as the florida keys.
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Quoting cg2916:
I don't mean to scare anyone, but track-wise this is very Katrina-like.


i thought so too. but on NPR this morning Dr masters said he didnt think it would be a hurricane when it made landfall. but things change so fast. maybe he did that NPR thing yesterday and they just aired it this morning.
Member Since: July 30, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 1448
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY good news i love it. i do not see any tropical depression come soon not on wednesday and thursday.
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Quoting cg2916:


They should go further left.


Why? Is that a wish or is there some reason you have in addition to the Alex precedent I mentioned?
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Quoting bjdsrq:


All the latest model runs shifted north (8am.) The initialization point is dead on center. If this holds for next few runs, likely Miami will only get offshore breeze and 1/2 inch of rain. The models with Alex were errored to the north early on in genesis, so it will be interesting to see how they trend on consecutive runs here.


They should go further left.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Landfall will likely be in 60 hours, I don't really think they should lower the numbers for the next 48 hours.


What do you think the chances of development are before landfall? I give it about 80%.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At the moment I'm perfectly in-line with the 12z SHIPS track and intensity. At 60 hours it has 97L as a moderate/strong tropical storm crossing over south Florida. I'll post an image shortly.

AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 0, 200N, 700W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 12, 210N, 722W, 34, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 24, 220N, 743W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 36, 232N, 764W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 48, 244N, 786W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 60, 254N, 807W, 52, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 72, 262N, 831W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 84, 270N, 852W, 56, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 96, 275N, 872W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 108, 279N, 889W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 120, 282N, 905W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



All the latest model runs shifted north (8am.) The initialization point is dead on center. If this holds for next few runs, likely Miami will only get offshore breeze and 1/2 inch of rain. The models with Alex were errored to the north early on in genesis, so it will be interesting to see how they trend on consecutive runs here.
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Guys Fl is not in a drought there might be local dry spots but overall most of the state except the extreme nw area which is in a mild drought.

Link
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Indeed. And they are so notorious because they are shallow, thus warming to a very high temperature is quick. Shear is finally dropping and dry air looks to be diminishing as 97L's large moisture field moistened up the environment some. South and central Florida should still be preparing for at least a strong tropical storm.


Yup. BTW, do you have a kit? It's only a TS, but flooding can always be an issue.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At the moment I'm perfectly in-line with the 12z SHIPS track and intensity. At 60 hours it has 97L as a moderate/strong tropical storm crossing over south Florida. I'll post an image shortly.

AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 0, 200N, 700W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 12, 210N, 722W, 34, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 24, 220N, 743W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 36, 232N, 764W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 48, 244N, 786W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 60, 254N, 807W, 52, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 72, 262N, 831W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 84, 270N, 852W, 56, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 96, 275N, 872W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 108, 279N, 889W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 120, 282N, 905W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Are we getting a better fix on what conditions are going to be like in the GOM with 97Ls developement?
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Quoting IKE:
Looks heading toward a lower percent on the next TWO. 97L is in trouble....

Landfall will likely be in 60 hours, I don't really think they should lower the numbers for the next 48 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

Quoting hurricanelover236:
Quite honestly i dont even think this storm will hit Florida. Its remaining weak so that means the further south it will stay. I see it being steered south of the keys or maybe brushing south florida tip and maybe becoming a tropical storm in the Gulf. Dont forget weaker means farther south.


Quoting StormW:


You win what? This isn't about "winning" here on Doc's blog. It's about providing accurate, scientific based information for the folks that come here for information on these systems...folks who are the layperson so to speak.


That is what I was referring to as a History Caster
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75. 7544
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 60, 254N, 807W, 52, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

this just may be right but as it gets closer might be a little stronger than i have a felling this will blow up 60 miles from so fla and catch everyone off gaurd .imo like most sysytems do in this area but agrree it gonna be tough call . and a rush rush deal
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6871
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LOW ITS WINNING HERE..
I SAID THIS LAST NIGHT ABOUT THE DRY AIR TO.Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas THIS WILL KILL THE INVEST 97l i was right again..i say this last night to..so i win.


have you read Dr. Master's update? Please read StormW's update then, like the rest of us, make an educated descision based on facts provided by the experts.
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ULL on the move westward now
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Quoting IKE:
Looks heading toward a lower percent on the next TWO. 97L is in trouble....



It's getting more organized behind the scenes, and convection is growing. Would you say it has <60% of developing in the next 48 hours? Actually, I'd give it 50%, too. But things change before 2 PM.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
even though 97L is in a lull right now, REMEMBER: Katrina formed from a cluster north of Puerto Rico, too... Katrina didnt really get going until she got in the bahamas...
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692
Quoting DestinJeff:
This disruption of 97L is likely short-lived. Those waters around the Banahams are notorious for tropical bad juju.
Indeed. And they are so notorious because they are shallow, thus warming to a very high temperature is quick. Shear is finally dropping and dry air looks to be diminishing as 97L's large moisture field moistened up the environment some. South and central Florida should still be preparing for at least a strong tropical storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
MiamiHurricane09:

AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 60, 254N, 807W, 52, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0

That's right about where I was picturing. Yep.
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I don't mean to scare anyone, but track-wise this is very Katrina-like.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
67. IKE
Looks heading toward a lower percent on the next TWO. 97L is in trouble....

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
At the moment I'm perfectly in-line with the 12z SHIPS track and intensity. At 60 hours it has 97L as a moderate/strong tropical storm crossing over south Florida. I'll post an image shortly.

AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 0, 200N, 700W, 30, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 12, 210N, 722W, 34, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 24, 220N, 743W, 39, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 36, 232N, 764W, 44, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 48, 244N, 786W, 49, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 60, 254N, 807W, 52, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 72, 262N, 831W, 54, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 84, 270N, 852W, 56, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 96, 275N, 872W, 58, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 108, 279N, 889W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 97, 2010072112, 03, SHIP, 120, 282N, 905W, 62, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Right now i wouldnt be surprised to see a track missing south florida and just go through the florida straits which is a possibility
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Quoting LADobeLady:


LOL...I never knew it was a game. Back about 5 years ago there was this "blobby" that everyone on this blog tracked all the way from Africa. It was written off, RIP'ed and then suddenly it blew up, crossing Florida. It hit Louisiana on August 29, 2005.


Too true. And don't forget when a tropical storm in the Atlantic degenerated to just a 1015 mb LLC...before reorganizing and striking south of Miami as a Cat 5 just a few dozen hours later. That was August 24, 1992.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13600
new wave to watch.
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I believe that 97L still has some time to get it together. It will not be a hurricane before it gets to Florida, but most likely we will have Bonnie. Everyone from the keys to central florida should keep an eye on this system
Member Since: August 10, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 167

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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