97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Without betting my house....but, we will have a TD by 5pm this afternoon....if you all have not looked at visible loop lately....Bonnie is coming now it appears...
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Yes you have....move on....don't argue with them..its mute!

you are right. moving on.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
260. IKE
Quoting bwi:
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 25 2010 - 12Z WED JUL 28 2010
...
THE PRESSURES STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS
PARALLEL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 06Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE AFTER MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAINTAINS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO
ENHANCE DEFINITION... AND TO YIELD A COMPROMISE FCST BETWEEN
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUITY VERSUS THE MAJORITY OF LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT ALONG
WITH VERIFICATION OF RECENT FEATURES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST FAVORED BY POINTS MENTIONED ON THE 16Z
NHC/MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL YESTERDAY...HENCE THE SOUTHWEST
ADJUSTMENT. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.


ROTH/RAUSCH



ECMWF is the best model in 2010 for the tropics. It shows no significant development in the ATL the rest of July.

Forgive me for doubting the ECMWF on 97L and saying it would be a cane. ECMWF has never called for that or a tropical storm with 97L.
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Quoting FLdewey:
We'll call that the Jason buoy.

FTW lol
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Quoting Floodman:
Wow, where are all the "Run for your lives" folks from yesterday?
Still running I guess..
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.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
254. Skyepony (Mod)
I don't see the POD out yet, wunder if Masters had some inside info that recon for today had been cancelled..

Saw one of the AF plans chucked a sonde ssw of tampa yesterday evening.. thought it maybe on the way to ST Croix. Pretty far off for the usual exercising the planes..
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CNBC (they were talking about oil prices) just mentioned the possibility of a storm in the Gulf for the weekend and early next week. Their guest meteorologist says he believes it should be a TD tomorrow.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting gator23:

that is precisly what I have been saying.


Yes you have....move on....don't argue with them..its mute!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


YOur correct....but, a weak storm goes toward Miami and a stronger storm goes toward the CAPE..

that is precisly what I have been saying.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
225.... poof.
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Have ya'll looked at visible lately......LOL..she is really starting to crank up....
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From Dr Master on August 23, 2005:

The remains of TD 10 continue to fester over the Bahama Islands, and the clouds have taken on that decidedly messy pattern associated with a tropical depression in the formative stages. An exposed low level circulation center is apparent in both visible satellite imagery and winds from the Quikscat satellite. The circulation was north of eastern Cuba and south of the central Bahama Islands, near 22.5N, 76W at 11am EDT. Deep convection is all east of the low level circulation center, and Quickscat winds as high as 30 knots were measured in this area. Observation stations in the vicinity are sparse, and I have not yet seen any pressure falls in those stations close to the system.

The environment surrounding the system is good but not ideal. Water temperatures are quite warm--about 29C, and closer to 31C near the western Bahamas. However, wind shear levels have been increasing somewhat over the past 12 hours and are about 10 - 15 knots (5 -10 knots would be much better.) A small upper-level low just north of the system may act bring some dry air into the system and hamper any upper-level outflow that tries to develop. Another possible problem is the presence of the large landmass of Cuba to the south, which may disrupt the system's circulation if it tracks more westerly. I expect the storm to continue to torment us by very slowly continuing to organize as it moves towards Florida.

The system appears to be tracking west-northwest at a very slow 5 to 10 mph, and the latest "early guidance" shows the storm moving more northwesterly towards Florida over the next few days. However, steering currents are weak and more westerly motion towards Cuba or the Straits of Florida would not be a surprise. Some of the computer models such as the Canadian model strengthen the system into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. Some very warm water (32C, or almost 90F) lies off the west coast of Florida that model believes will fuel the storm into a hurricane. The GFS model makes the system a weak tropical storm that moves over Florida by Friday, then keeps the system a weak tropical storm as it recurves past the Carolinas. If the system does become a tropical storm, it is unlikely the upper level winds will allow intensification into a hurricane for at least the next three days. By that time, it's anybody's guess what might happen. One thing is for sure--the remains of TD 10 will be a around for a lot longer, they're going nowhere very fast. I expect I'll still be talking about this system next week!

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the remains of TD 10 at 5pm this afternoon to see if a new tropical depression has formed. If so, it will be interesting to see if they call it TD 10 again, since the NHC discussions have been referring to this system as "possibly the remnants of TD 10".
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Quoting StormW:
Ok gang...my update should be out in about 5 minutes.


Looking forward to reading, thank you sir! :)
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Quoting cg2916:


Actually, the best is yet to come. Conditions are improving, and it's already gaining back it's MLC nice and strong.



Agree. Looking way better than a couple of hours ago..
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Quoting Floodman:
Wow, where are all the "Run for your lives" folks from yesterday?


I guess they ran...? ;-)
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I said it earlier and I will say it again.. "Dry air will NOT be a big issue with 97L" Look on the water vapor and you can clearly see a shield of moisture surounding 97L.. It ain't happening downcasters! LOL

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting gator23:

read the docs blog that has NOT changed. Look dude I am not saying Miami is out of it, I am saying from Miami to Cape Canaveral


YOur correct....but, a weak storm goes toward Miami and a stronger storm goes toward the CAPE..
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Quoting Skyepony:


There is several triggers over the last few days..



How far out is the bouy? Looks like it needs some TLC maintenance.
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To me it looks like the outliers are the one's calling for central Florida... hmmmm
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237. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting RJT185:


Rogue Wave?


There is several triggers over the last few days..
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Quoting RJT185:


Rogue Wave?


Maybe a cruise ship created a big wake.

Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. was our red circle at 70% 2pm TWO and now after the 8pm TWO it's down to 60%, Did i see correctly?


Yup, the ULL gave it a rough night, but it's already coming back.
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Quoting cg2916:


When Doc's blog came out the 12Z hadn't come out yet.

ok fine, Miami look out.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting Floodman:
Wow, where are all the "Run for your lives" folks from yesterday?


They are never far away Flood... wait for it :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26516
Quoting DestinJeff:
Does everybody understand that model solutions going over your house doesn't make you any more BA than anyone else?


Yeah, but it does give me FEMA paid overtime... that's gotta count for something, right?
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Quoting sflawavedude:
im about ready to rip 97l now but will wait 1 more day to do so.dry air and sheer delux for it! just a little stormines to florida with some breeze nothing big.


Well if you do, then it will show how little you know about tropical weather.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting sflawavedude:
im about ready to rip 97l now but will wait 1 more day to do so.dry air and sheer delux for it! just a little stormines to florida with some breeze nothing big.


Actually, the best is yet to come. Conditions are improving, and it's already gaining back it's MLC nice and strong.
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97L starting to improve on structure and convection..

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Morning all. was our red circle at 70% 2pm TWO and now after the 8pm TWO it's down to 60%, Did i see correctly?
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The HPC doesn't seem to think it will recurve in the Central or Eastern Gulf.. The BAM models have been pretty consistent in agreeing with that forecast, as well.. It'll be interesting to see how the ridge will behave over the next 24-48 hours.
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Quoting Skyepony:
tsunami buoy alert triggered east of Charlston, SC.. looks like may be a problematic buoy?


Rogue Wave?
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im about ready to rip 97l now but will wait 1 more day to do so.dry air and sheer delux for it! just a little stormines to florida with some breeze nothing big.
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Quoting gator23:

see what i worte below, there has been a conssitent northward shift from yesterday and our most reliable models have caleld for a central florida strike.


Hey Gator....remember the general rule .....weak storm goes south and strong storm moves north as typical with the BAM models!

Also, it sure looks like a closed low to me on Visible and i was right last nite on my fix near the coast....
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Quoting gator23:

read the docs blog that has NOT changed. Look dude I am not saying Miami is out of it, I am saying from Miami to Cape Canaveral


When Doc's blog came out the 12Z hadn't come out yet.
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Quoting gator23:

see what i worte below, there has been a conssitent northward shift from yesterday and our most reliable models have caleld for a central florida strike.



http://i508.photobucket.com/albums/s330/HCW2008/554275a8.jpg



?????
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Quoting scott39:
I Think the worst we are going to see 97L has already passed! We all saw how it held its own up against the ULL,now will see what it can it can really do. I hope it does not intesify for anybody!


Yup, tonight or tomorrow should be when it gets its act together, but I could be wrong.
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Quoting cg2916:
Remember, if it makes a S Fl landfall, it might have to deal a little with Cuba.



That's changed.

read the docs blog that has NOT changed. Look dude I am not saying Miami is out of it, I am saying from Miami to Cape Canaveral
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LOW ITS WINNING HERE..
I SAID THIS LAST NIGHT ABOUT THE DRY AIR TO.Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas THIS WILL KILL THE INVEST 97l i was right again..i say this last night to..so i win.
no you dont win until its over and its not over
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218. bwi
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
837 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

VALID 12Z SUN JUL 25 2010 - 12Z WED JUL 28 2010
...
THE PRESSURES STARTED WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z CANADIAN/06Z GFS
PARALLEL...BEFORE SWITCHING TO A 06Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE AFTER MONDAY MORNING WHICH MAINTAINS
REASONABLE CONTINUITY. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE TO
ENHANCE DEFINITION... AND TO YIELD A COMPROMISE FCST BETWEEN
FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD CONTINUITY VERSUS THE MAJORITY OF LATEST
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL GUIDANCE WITH THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. A PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERN RIDGE ALOFT ALONG
WITH VERIFICATION OF RECENT FEATURES FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DO NOT APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE RECURVATURE SCENARIO INTO THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST FAVORED BY POINTS MENTIONED ON THE 16Z
NHC/MEDIUM RANGE COORDINATION CALL YESTERDAY...HENCE THE SOUTHWEST
ADJUSTMENT. A PERSISTENT LACK OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR THIS
SYSTEM CALLS INTO QUESTION HOW STRONG OF A FEATURE WILL ACTUALLY
MATERIALIZE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THIS DISTURBANCE.


ROTH/RAUSCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Remember, if it makes a S Fl landfall, it might have to deal a little with Cuba.

Quoting gator23:

they reliable models are still thinking that the ridge will break down. Until they shift south I will not be on board. And liek I said they have shifted north. Last night from WPB to the keys this morning form Cape Canaveral to Miami


That's changed.
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I Think the worst we are going to see 97L has already passed! We all saw how it held its own up against the ULL,now will see what it can it can really do. I hope it does not intesify for anybody!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
Good morning all.



Amazing.... nothing even coming into view. The wx was worse here last week.....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22727
Guys, the only thing consistent about the models at this point and time in the game is that they will be inconsitent.
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Wow, where are all the "Run for your lives" folks from yesterday?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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