97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Good Gawd Almighty, people! I'll try to whisper this so he won't hear me. In case ya'll haven't noticed, JasonCooman seems to be a little slow. Lay off of him. Just ignore him if you will, but don't acknowledge him.

You people aren't showing much intelligence if you haven't picked up on it yet. He just wants to be part of the gang.

Back to lurking now.


We know all of that but it still doesn't make it any less annoying!
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308. IKE
A sign? The 12Z NAM model doesn't even spin up 97L anymore....
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting StormW:


As far as?


Development and TS status?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting FLdewey:
We'll call that the Jason buoy.


or we can call him tsunami boy :) i dont know why everyone is so aggravated with him, he does not bother me. he just gets excited.
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
So what is on the IPOD when watching storms (or waiting them out)?

Blake Shleton? Kenny Chesney? Jimmy Buffet?


This is a weather blog...Black Sabbath, Metallica, David Allan Coe and Wayne Newton
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Quoting FSUstormnut:

as always.. thanks!


Ditto!
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247:

Good reminder not to let our guard down. If 97L remains on a more westerly track through the Florida straits, it could pick up considerable energy from the warm Gulf Stream water. Once it emerges into the Eastern Gulf, conditions favor development.

There was plenty of down-casting for the system that eventually formed Katrina.

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Quoting TampaSpin:
Without betting my house....but, we will have a TD by 5pm this afternoon....if you all have not looked at visible loop lately....Bonnie is coming now it appears...


What visible loop are you looking at? I ask not because I doubt you but because the NHC one works sometimes and doesn't work sometimes.
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Quoting wayfaringstranger:
So what is on the IPOD when watching storms (or waiting them out)?

Blake Shleton? Kenny Chesney? Jimmy Buffet?


Scorpions - Rock You Like A Hurricane
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting Orcasystems:


They are never far away Flood... wait for it :)


Yeah, I can hear them in the waiting room, smoking cigarettes and talking in low murmurs...those that didn;t take their own advioce and run...LOL
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

INVEST 97L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 10:35 A.M. JULY 21, 2010

as always.. thanks!
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Quoting Skyepony:
slumming the buoys..just beginning to see a few west winds & pressures falling again. We need a well placed ship..


The Horizon Navigator is near N 19°42' W 067°24' and reports wind from 120 degrees at 23 knots with the barometer at 1014.0 and wave height at 3.5 meters (11 feet).
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Still plenty breezy here. Highest sustained this morning 32kts, highest gust 35 kts. currently 26kts. E. to ESE.
Link
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Quoting IKE:


Buckled the knees. A real bender.

I'm a bender-caster, along with a down-caster.


I still think Bonnie is going to your house... the track yesterday had it as a CAT 2 over your abode.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

INVEST 97L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 10:35 A.M. JULY 21, 2010


Thanks! What are your odds for 97L?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
So what is on the IPOD when watching storms (or waiting them out)?

Blake Shleton? Kenny Chesney? Jimmy Buffet?

Buffet killed the miami dolphins with his song
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Without betting my house....but, we will have a TD by 5pm this afternoon....if you all have not looked at visible loop lately....Bonnie is coming now it appears...
if i had a nickel for every time i heard that yesterday i would be rich in a day.
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Quoting LADobeLady:


LOL...I never knew it was a game. Back about 5 years ago there was this "blobby" that everyone on this blog tracked all the way from Africa. It was written off, RIP'ed and then suddenly it blew up, crossing Florida. It hit Louisiana on August 29, 2005.


Andrew is another "wave gone wild" example as well.
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ECMWF failed on 97L, never predicted it to even get as remotely organized as it has. I usually respect the ECMWF, but it didn't get this one nor did it really get TD2.. never showed a low even in the Gulf.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23497
Quoting Skyepony:


370nm E of Charleston.. could be a while. I was surprised the one not far off Cape Canaveral was fixed in a few months. The local NWS looked pretty upset about it being broke.


Hmm. I guess with funding cuts left and right NWS offices will complain a little louder than usual as to not end up in a backlog for repairs.
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Quoting sporteguy03:


Ike I noticed the ECMWF did not develop it either which is important but it is hard for me to discount the NHC thinking as well, if 97L does develop it might be a wake-up call that the ECMWF is not always 100% accurate.


Exactly. I think it's too early in the season to go hailing the ECMWF as the best of the season when we've only had 1 named storm to judge it on.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
285. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


Model-worshipcasting.

Sorry, Ike, but that was a slow curve right over the plate.


Buckled the knees. A real bender.

I'm a bender-caster, along with a down-caster.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting cg2916:


It doesn't develop 97L?

No shows it as an open wave across SFLA
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5138
Quoting IKE:



ECMWF is the best model in 2010 for the tropics. It shows no significant development in the ATL the rest of July.

Forgive me for doubting the ECMWF on 97L and saying it would be a cane. ECMWF has never call for that or a tropical storm with 97L.


Well, ecmwf will b ingesting some crow when this baby gets cranking IMO.
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Quoting IKE:



ECMWF is the best model in 2010 for the tropics. It shows no significant development in the ATL the rest of July.

Forgive me for doubting the ECMWF on 97L and saying it would be a cane. ECMWF has never call for that or a tropical storm with 97L.


Ike I noticed the ECMWF did not develop it either which is important but it is hard for me to discount the NHC thinking as well, if 97L does develop it might be a wake-up call that the ECMWF is not always 100% accurate.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5138
97L begining to "own" that ULL IMO...I have a feeling recon will be going into a TD tomorrow.....
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Quoting IKE:



ECMWF is the best model in 2010 for the tropics. It shows no significant development in the ATL the rest of July.

Forgive me for doubting the ECMWF on 97L and saying it would be a cane. ECMWF has never called for that or a tropical storm with 97L.


It doesn't develop 97L?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting Skyepony:
slumming the buoys..just beginning to see a few west winds & pressures falling again. We need a well placed ship..


There's a ship that is reporting 29.9 knot wind speeds at 20.70, -66.80
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274. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting RJT185:



How far out is the bouy? Looks like it needs some TLC maintenance.


370nm E of Charleston.. could be a while. I was surprised the one not far off Cape Canaveral was fixed in a few months. The local NWS looked pretty upset about it being broke.
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IMO, the center of 97L is currently located at 19.8N and 69.7W... It appears to be currently moving slowly NW, and away from Hispaniola.

I would expect 97l to resume a more WNW track this afternoon.
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LOL, 243
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269. IKE
There it is....in all it's glory....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Theres alot of convection over the vrigin islands, could this possibly form a dominant COC or will it get pulled into the circulation that could form by tommorow???
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Quoting reedzone:
I said it earlier and I will say it again.. "Dry air will NOT be a big issue with 97L" Look on the water vapor and you can clearly see a shield of moisture surounding 97L.. It ain't happening downcasters! LOL



Plus the ULL is moving the dry air away with it.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3032
Quoting TampaSpin:
Have ya'll looked at visible lately......LOL..she is really starting to crank up....


Sarcasm?
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23497
Quoting gator23:

read the docs blog that has NOT changed. Look dude I am not saying Miami is out of it, I am saying from Miami to Cape Canaveral


No further north than Boca Raton, IMO. 12z shows ridge pretty well in place.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
97L is moving NNW/NW at this time and is getting better organized right now. It appears to be pulling away from the coast now. Also a very tight mid level spin is associated with this system and I'm beginning to think the NHC will regret send a HH aircraft out there to check this out as this could go straight TS Bonnie tomorrow. Boy the RIPcasters will be upset with this post.

give them a few minutes i belive one of them misplaced their pitchfork
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Without betting my house....but, we will have a TD by 5pm this afternoon....if you all have not looked at visible loop lately....Bonnie is coming now it appears...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.