97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
LOOK LIKE THE UPPER LOW ITS WINNING HERE..
I SAID THIS LAST NIGHT ABOUT THE DRY AIR TO.Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas THIS WILL KILL THE INVEST 97l i was right again..i say this last night to..so i win.
Jason, all this crowing is not cool, dude. On the blog "crowing" doesn't mean shouting how "I was right" all over the blog and beating on one's chest. Instead, one gently offers to grill, BBQ, bake, fry or [I've heard it's really good this way] stew the helpings of crow that others will consume.

However, if u practice this more uncouth habit of "crowing", YOU become the crow. Which means the next time you are even slightly wrong [which given the uncertainties of tropical wx could be 12 hours from now- or less] you will definitely get served. And not in a good way.

Be smooth, man, be cool. It's always better to let someone else say, "Hey, this is just what that kid Jase was saying yesterday," instead of tooting ur own horn....

@ P451: NICE graphical depiction of 97L there, meng....

Quoting cg2916:
I don't mean to scare anyone, but track-wise this is very Katrina-like.
Yah, resemblance has been noted several times. But I think there was some other stuff going on atmospherically that made it a lot easier for Katrina to blow up the way it did...

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ULL on the move westward now
Hey KOTG, that ULL is providing for some FANTASTIC wx here today....

Quoting FLdewey:
My tropical storm kit is beer in the fridge and a pantry full of snacks.

As far as jasoniscoolman2010x goes just ignore him and please stop quoting him. He's on par with the other one.
I disagree with the comment about Jason. I can see u viewing him as obnoxiously overconfident. But he's genuinely trying to focus on the tropics and topical issues and NOT on disrupting blog activities. You may not like him, but don't "lie on him" as we say in the islands.

ONE more thing about Jase: isn't he actually RIGHT about the disruption of 97L by the mtns of Hispaniola? I don't agree that this means the end of 97l - after all, I got hit by Jeanne after the low and midlevel centres got shredded by those same mountains - but give credit where credit is due.

The couth is lacking - he's got it to learn. But the young man is enthusiastic about TROPICAL WX, and I can't find a fault with that. Isn't that why a lot of us are here????

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Quoting Jeff9641:
Alright here is the vis below. This looks better than some system we've had in the past.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201097_sat.html
you cant be serious. looks like a blob of clouds.
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Do I think 97L has a good chance to develop later this week? Yes

However, it clearly doesn't look good right now. Lets try not to grasp for straws here in the mean time though.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Thanks Dr. M; it's a delicate balance that needs to come together at the same time to foster TD formation and the relative position of the ULL (land proximity issues at the moment notwithstanding) seems to be a big issue for 97L at the moment before it moves on towards the Bahamas and Florida.
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357. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting dsenecal2009:


There's a ship that is reporting 29.9 knot wind speeds at 20.70, -66.80


That was about 5hrs ago..& near 15' waves.. looks like it was on the NE side headed toward it. No obs from it yet this hour. I had missed that one.
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Quoting cg2916:


Scorpions - Rock You Like A Hurricane


I rock that ringtone all season!
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Quoting StormW:


I'll see that, and raise ya a twinkie!


How about a Hostess Cupcake....hmmmmmmmmmmm
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I live in NW Puerto Rico and we have had more rain over the last few days than can be remembered in recent past. I hope that the flood warnings for today are precautionary as we cannot absorb much more rain than we have had over the past few. Keep up the great work.
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Quoting stormhank:
Did anyone see the interview last night on TWC..they were talking to someone from this weather agency that was giving out their outlook for the remainder of the hurricane season...they're still calling for 19 11 5 for their number of storms.. I feel the season would really have to rev up to get those numbers..of course with mother nature you never know


It's important to realize, what if in August and September things really ramp up and we see something like 6-8 storms each month? We have no way to predict something like that happening, so these predictions really don't matter.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting IKE:


It's like the CMC. It spins up washing machines and blenders. If it isn't showing anything you're in real trouble.


You can't really say that about the CMC2 now. It was bang on with the two previous ones.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
tropical wave now entering the caribbean is showing up better than 97L. there has been a flare up of convection and from sat pics there appears to e a mid level circulation west of martinique
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Quoting StormW:


60-70% Development
30-40% T.S. status.


This is for the next 48 hrs?
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Link

next storm?
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2005 Hurricane season 6 named storms by todays date. 2010 (1) any questions. Too many dooms predictors which in my mind is just plain old rediculous. Even the experts want their names mentioned. So far this season is 1/6th as busy as 2005. Do the math that is only 5 storms
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Quoting Floodman:


This is a weather blog...Black Sabbath, Metallica, David Allan Coe and Wayne Newton
yes......Flood remembers when the guys from these great bands were still in kindergarten playing with letter blocks...he he he he
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345. unf97
Good morning everyone!
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344. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:


Honestly, Ike. Recently when Joe B. referenced the NAM when hunting out "mischief" I think you said something like "The NAM? C'mon Joe B."

Now, when it prefers calm you use it.

I have said it before and I will say again .... Consummate Downcaster! The best.


It's like the CMC. It spins up washing machines and blenders. If it isn't showing anything you're in real trouble.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Ike NAM is not a tropical model. Look at the visible images and you tell me what you think.
a disorganized cloud mass that many said yesterday would already be bonnie. that is what i see.
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Quoting cg2916:


I think weak TD at Fl landfall.


Winds are already set at 30kts for 97L. IF this does in fact become a TD tomorrow, then I see no reason why it would no have the opportunity to increase at least 5 more kts to become Bonnie before FL landfall (assuming that does in fact happen).
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Did anyone see the interview last night on TWC..they were talking to someone from this weather agency that was giving out their outlook for the remainder of the hurricane season...they're still calling for 19 11 5 for their number of storms.. I feel the season would really have to rev up to get those numbers..of course with mother nature you never know
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Quoting StormW:


I'll see that, and raise ya a twinkie!


Hey now.. hold on... a twinkie is real money :)
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting Floodman:


This is a weather blog...Black Sabbath, Metallica, David Allan Coe and Wayne Newton

AC/DC, Midnight Oil, Cold Chisel.
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I seriously doubt will have Bonnie tomorrow, it has to get out of the shear and dry air area to even start building back convection.
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Quoting extreme236:
Most systems that develop become named storms and ones that have as long as this system has to organize often do, and I highly doubt it would become a TD and not become a TS. I'd put the likely hood of development and becoming a TS at around even percentages.


I think weak TD at Fl landfall.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Storm, the AEMI track.....is this still something that you forsee as a real possibility? The storm seems to be moving a little two step W NW.

Seems like the longer it holds out over the Bahmas the more likely it will hold a westerly course?
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331. IKE
Quoting FLdewey:


Now that's funny.... lol. In my mind I hear ominous music playing.


Link
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Quoting MyrtleCanes:


and the Grateful Dead and Widespread Panic


The Dead are a given...LOL
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Quoting AussieStorm:
Morning all. was our red circle at 70% 2pm TWO and now after the 8pm TWO it's down to 60%, Did i see correctly?

I just checked back on the TWO archive,,, 2pm TWO was 70% and the 8pm TWO is 60%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALTHOUGH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND LIKELY AFFECT
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED. CONSEQUENTLY...THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
MISSION HAS BEEN POSTPONED UNTIL TOMORROW. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND
HISPANIOLA TODAY AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVY
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.
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I've already gotten a small serving of crow. In order to avoid more, I want to say that the earliest we will have a TD is 11 AM, not before that.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
I see a very good spin on it 97L... that ULL need to just move already so that we can see a light show
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

INVEST 97L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 10:35 A.M. JULY 21, 2010


Again, as always, nice to read a 'voice' of reason. As always, thank you Storm! We appreciate your time and knowledge.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I still think Bonnie is going to your house... the track yesterday had it as a CAT 2 over your abode.


Watch it, anything that goes to IKE's house has to pass over my house first so don't jinx us!
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It appears that the ill defined center is now totally north of the DR. Also, visible sat indicates that there is a semi-counter clockwise spin....does anyone else confur with this?
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Most systems that develop become named storms and ones that have as long as this system has to organize often do, and I highly doubt it would become a TD and not become a TS. I'd put the likely hood of development and becoming a TS at around even percentages.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Floodman:


This is a weather blog...Black Sabbath, Metallica, David Allan Coe and Wayne Newton


and the Grateful Dead and Widespread Panic
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Thanks for the update Storm. We're keeping a wary eye on 97L up here on the Panhandle.
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Quoting StormW:


60-70% Development
30-40% T.S. status.


I'll take that bet and raise you 20%
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting StormW:


60-70% Development
30-40% T.S. status.


Ok, I was thinking about 10% above that, but I can be a bit of an up-caster.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Quoting Floodman:
Wow, where are all the "Run for your lives" folks from yesterday?
Well, I must munch a little crow, I thought 80% yesterday afternoon. A bit of stove top stuffing inn the crow takes the gamie taste out..:)
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Quoting Jeff9641:
The Euro has not been as good as of late. Considering 97L looks to be Bonnie real soon. Maybe tomorrow.
heard that one all day yesterday too.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Sarcasm?


in what way.........LOL
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i wonder if 97L caused a tsunami off the coast of south carolina.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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