97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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461. JRRP
here in Santo Domingo
moderate precip
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Quoting StormW:


Looks like an improvement in the low-levels.
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I wonder why this has not been talked about or on the media......pretty amazing story sent to me from another Blogger that i had not heard.......HUM.....GW people won't like it tho i am sure!

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HISTORICALCOLDSNAPFREEZESSOUTHAMERICA.pdf


That link should probably come with a disclaimer; icecap.us is peopled, of course, by folks funded by, among others, Big Oil and Big Coal. Surprise!

(It's interesting, BTW, that either Alexandre Aguiar--the author of the PDF to which you linked--is plagiarizing JB, or vice versa; the wording at the end fo the article is identical to that posted in JB's blog. Hmmm...)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13274
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Actually I think 97L becoming more than it is now is an outside chance - and I'm not downcasting.


I disagree.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
457. Asta
Quoting StormW:


Thought you would.

Always been a big fan of Emerson, Lake and Palmer too.

Oh Emerson Lake and Palmer- Brain Salad Surgery-
Loved that Album
And Brian Eno Music for Airports...
Link
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Even if this ends as jsut a big rain event for S.Fl, it will cause quite a bit of damage. There are STILL many tarped roofs from the 05 season. Insurers saw thousands of claims arise from the Fay event and it was just a big thunder storm (IMO).

Oh- and I'd go with Peter Gabriel "Red Rain"...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't think u are missing much... Right now, this looking like a depression at best through tomorrow, and possibly a lower-level TS by FL landfall on Friday. I'm really relieved this is the likelihood rather than the outside chance; I wasn't looking forward to another "big one" ramping up overhead.



Actually I think 97L becoming more than it is now is an outside chance - and I'm not downcasting.
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452. IKE
Quoting Jeff9641:
Only the SE side of the circulation is open now from shower/thunderstorm activity. This system is heading to TD status this evening if this keeps up. A very well defined circulation right now and appears to be moving NW or NNW. I guess the Euro's solution of a open wave are all but gone now.


From the experts....

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858


It think a New Low is Forming.

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450. Asta
Quoting Floodman:


Raised in Northern California, he spent his summers with his family in Louisiana...

Any musician worth his salt has spent some time in Louisiana.. must be something in the water...; )

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Quoting twhcracker:


yeah! how noble is it to change your forecast midseason?! That would be like if i bet on the superbowl and when i saw things going bad at half time changing my bet!


Your not very nice! Where did you come from?
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448. IKE
97L...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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446. unf97
Quoting Goldenblack:
Anyone else notice that on water vapor that the ULL is starting to accelerate to the west?



Yes. The ULL has already begun its W-W/SW motion on the WV imagery.
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Okay, that didn't work....lol...not all HTML works in here does it?

Link




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Quoting FLdewey:


So were you on here last night? Were you here when he started posting fake NHC updates? Were you here when he started posting pictures of himself?


MAYBE IF I START POSTING IN CAPS IT WILL BE BETTER. There is no credit due. In fact the account is negative after I had to see his hairy pits. ;-)
[sighs] You didn't actually get a word I said, did u..... [puts hands on head] Guess what Dewey. U don't have to LIKE him. Let it go.

Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


I'm probably not seeing the facts properly anyway.

I don't think u are missing much... Right now, this looking like a depression at best through tomorrow, and possibly a lower-level TS by FL landfall on Friday. I'm really relieved this is the likelihood rather than the outside chance; I wasn't looking forward to another "big one" ramping up overhead.

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Click to enlarge and lengthen run



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439. JRRP
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Anyone else notice that on water vapor that the ULL is starting to accelerate to the west?

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Quoting StormW:


Black Sabbath, Deep Purple, Status Quo, Cream, Grand Funk Railroad.


Nice...I especially like the Status Quo reference...
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Good morning, all.

We must be regrouping on 97L! ;) Speaking of groups - uuummm, how about Marshal Tucker! Yeah!


MLC Good morning, 97L has many many eyes on her today.
Sheri
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My analysis on 97L. It's funny how quick things can change in the tropics. I feel this was almost a little too hyped up yesterday. It never was in the most optimal environments.
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It has been 12 years since the last hurricane past over Puerto Rico. I have been 12 years asking for no one to come and we have been lucky. People here have change their mind towards hurricane and more than a decade without a hurricane make people to forget what a hurricane is capable of. A hurricane in Puerto Rico will be something no one wants to see. Im just saying this because we are on a higher change of getting hit this year, and the peak of hurricane season is in its way.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
you are insane you all dont need anymore problems havent you all had enough


I love hurricanes / bad weather :D
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Seems to be on the move slowly N, NWard
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Stevie Ray Vaughan:

Can't Stand the Weather

The Sky is Crying

Texas Flood
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Quoting StormW:


However, being wrong is not a bad thing. I could be wrong in my forecast too! But don't really care. I mean, I could adjust my numbers like is done in Aug, and such, and I could be on the money too. The point is to make a forecast based on what ya see from analyzing everything, and stick with it, to see how close ya come, and if the analysis parameters prove accurate. If not, then you go back and re-analyze things.

My numbers still hold at 17-19.


yeah! how noble is it to change your forecast midseason?! That would be like if i bet on the superbowl and when i saw things going bad at half time changing my bet!
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convection starting to build near the center
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Quoting TampaSpin:
I wonder why this has not been talked about or on the media......pretty amazing story sent to me from another Blogger that i had not heard.......HUM.....GW people won't like it tho i am sure!

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HISTORICALCOLDSNAPFREEZESSOUTHAMERICA.pdf


It has been talked about already here on this blog. The fact of the matter is, only those who confuse weather with climate are likely think it proves or disproves any particular climatye change theory, just as the recent four-month superhot spell in the northern hemisphere doesn't prove or disprove anything.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13274
Quoting StormW:
INVEST 97L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 10:35 A.M. JULY 21, 2010


StormW~ Good Morning, Thanks for the synopsis, like usual really good update.
Sheri
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Quoting CJ5:
It appears conditions to the West of 97L have eased a bit and it is possible the storm could begin to develop better in the coming hours.


Correct.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
this is my totally could not possibly be more amateurish ignernt opinion i have learned on here:

storms get bigger in the day and littler at night.

maybe i will get an honorary met degree for such provocative conclusions.
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Quoting StormW:


Black Sabbath, Deep Purple, Status Quo, Cream, Grand Funk Railroad.



Good morning, all.

We must be regrouping on 97L! ;) Speaking of groups - uuummm, how about Marshal Tucker! Yeah!
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421. unf97
Quoting gordydunnot:
Good morning, Looking at visible looks like it maybe finally far enough away from Hispaniola to be getting a center now. I think we will see this in the next few hrs.


This process may be occuring indeed. Some convection is beginning to flare again around the developing LLC, and if this trend persists , with time, we may finally have something when Recon gets there tomorrow.
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Quoting est1986:
Hurricane Bonnie come to Louisiana!

really really now that is just stupid
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The system's circulation appears to be becoming a bit better defined but it lacks any significant convection. Until heavy thunderstorms are generated and are able to persist, I doubt much will happen. The system is still disorganized.
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Quoting est1986:
Hurricane Bonnie come to Louisiana!
you are insane you all dont need anymore problems havent you all had enough
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I wonder why this has not been talked about or on the media......pretty amazing story sent to me from another Blogger that i had not heard.......HUM.....GW people won't like it tho i am sure!

http://icecap.us/images/uploads/HISTORICALCOLDSNAPFREEZESSOUTHAMERICA.pdf
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Quoting twhcracker:


Raised in Northern California, he spent his summers with his family in Louisiana...
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Quoting Floodman:


A better one:

HAHA A good one! who knew fogarty was so weather attuned :)
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.