97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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And 97L, at first just ghostly...turned a whiter shade of pale......
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I guess everyone is seeing the samething except for a select few. A definite COC forming right now n of DR and i think the NHC jumped the gun on canceling the recon today. This should be classified later today or tonight or straight to TS tomorrow when the recon arrives.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
GOM ain't lookin too shabby neither.
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Quoting Floodman:


Simple Sister? Whiskey Train? Whiter Shade of Pale (which John Lennon considered the greatest rock song ever written)?


John Lennon? That pinko commie? WINK, WINK!
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The ULL needs to get out of there for 97L to do a lot of good.

The ULL keeps snacking on the moisture of the invest.
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Quoting SavannahStorm:
Stevie Ray Vaughan:

Can't Stand the Weather

The Sky is Crying

Texas Flood
...........He was one of the best guitar players who ever lived......Check out the GEM model. IT kinda has two lows affecting South Florida.Link...............................................Link One link Vaughn the other GEM.
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Quoting Drakoen:
A couple of stations on the northern coast of the Dominican republic are reporting winds out of the WNW and the SW so that is an indication that a closed low is trying to form north of the DR.
yeap , hey drak for some reason i see two circulations could it be that we have 2 centers rotating around a mean center ?????
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Quoting StormW:


Forgot all about King Crimson.

Oh...Procol Harum


Simple Sister? Whiskey Train? Whiter Shade of Pale (which John Lennon considered the greatest rock song ever written)?
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Quoting Relix:
Finally it leaves PR! =P


But there is still some rain heading toward us from the carribean sea
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click to enlarge



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also everyone remember that the bahamas area is notorious for systems to develop very rapidly and it is approaching the SE bahamas
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Looks like 97L is trying to fire convection around the COC...what about all that moisture still left to the east of PR? Is that going to consolidate back into the system, fizzle out or will it split off into another system?
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Quoting WindynEYW:
Did the models shift southward?
Some did a little, but they always shift a bit north or south. Constantly shifting until they reach a consensus.
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The last few satellite images show a twist to the clouds. The increase in convection along with some development in a circulation should transform 97L to a tropical depression.
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A couple of stations on the northern coast of the Dominican republic are reporting winds out of the WNW and the SW so that is an indication that a closed low is trying to form north of the DR.
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Forget about Procol Harum...Yes
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i think the models are going to shift to the left again i am still going to stick with a south florida hit
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WesternATLWVLoop



Appears its best chance is to skip north.
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Quoting hurricane23:


Hey storm!


Hey Adrian, What do you make of this system right now?
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
97 I'm starting to see a slight spin on the visible and a bit more flare up.
Any significance?
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
Quoting susieq110:
G-IV still going to fly today at 1730z


That ought to get us some good info for the models.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
G-IV still going to fly today at 1730z
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Quoting Floodman:


Yeah man...and King Crimson, with or without Greg Lake


King Crimson fan
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Quoting IKE:


From the experts....

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.


It doesn't take an expert to see this system is getting organized really good right now. Just saying! Some may say different but this new low forming is looking pretty good.
Member Since: November 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6577
Quoting IpswichWeatherCenter:


Actually I think 97L becoming more than it is now is an outside chance - and I'm not downcasting.
At the beginning of this week I fully expected to see a TD by now, possibly even a low-level TS. But the Twave 97L was associated with is now at 76W, and 97L doesn't seem to have enough integral power to fight off the ULL and organize more. So I can still potentially see something out of this, but not as much as I originally expected. Our local met said last night that he didn't expect anything worse than TD conditions on Thursday and Friday, and it looks like he may be right after all.
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484. IKE
Latest GFS @ hour 30...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Stevie Ray Vaughan:

Can't Stand the Weather

The Sky is Crying

Texas Flood


Oh YES!!! RIP SRV! Missed by so many...
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For what it's worth, I'm slightly concerned about how little time 97L is going to be over land now. Unfortunately the weaker "start" may ultimately aid in it being a meaner storm at second landfall. I'm definitely curious though from the more experienced about some variable factors.

If you were to rank in what order factors have on DEVELOPING tropical systems what would it be? I understand these factors may vary based on strength of each, but for arguments sake let's say they were all "equal". For example, in my mind which could be completely wrong... this is how I would rank the start up variables.

1) Water Temperature
2) Shear
3) Moisture
4) Land Interaction
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I remember back in 2008, there was discussion during Fay that storms become less organized in the process of gaining a low level circulation.. as pre-Fay became disorganized in a similar position to where 97L is.. became a TS the next day. Thought it was interesting.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24476
Led Zeppelin - When The Levee Breaks

Reo Speedwagon - Ridin' The Storm Out

Ridin' The Storm Out ESPECIALLY reminds me of Hurricane Charley. For some reason I had that song in my head the whole time I was boarding up and getting ready for it.
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Quoting StormW:


Hey Adrian!


Hey storm!
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478. IKE
Boy....... Joe seems real worried about 97L.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
477. Asta
Aaron Nevile _ It feels like Rain
Classic Storm season weather music...
best with cool sweet tea or Abita beer
"Love comes out of no where baby, just like a Hurricane... and it feels like rain.."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z2ySrxH5bhE

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Sorry i mispelled Forming in my grahic at post 451.....lol.....sorry!
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There is still time for this thing to develop into something. As we have seen in the past things can fire up rather rapidly. Keep an eye on it, follow StormW posts and you will be allright.

StormW, Thanks again for your contributions.
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IMO, 97L actually looks better than it did yesterday. And, for now, I'm gonna stick with this, too, from yesterday.





72-hr sfc map has 97L pressing substantially, northwards up against the high at 1016mb. I think that's going to be a bit much without a bit more intensity.

Low-level easterly steering flow still suggests a track more west than north, even more so with something more substantial. However, a stronger system would also certainly feel a more northerly, poleward tug. We're going to have to see how quickly this system gets well-organized and how much crossing into the Gulf Stream sst's improves intensity. Development is still likely to occur slower, given its proximity to land still.

At this point, I'm thinking up the gut through the straits still, or maybe over the Keys or southern tip of FL.
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Looks like 97l is getting some of its swaggah back!
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Anyone catching thatnice ball of convection with the outerbands southeast of PR?
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More from JB this morning.


WEDNESDAY 10 A.M.
DANG!

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

You have to understand, 2C below normal at the warmest time of the year, or 2C above normal at this time of the year, is a much greater variance than the big swings at the cold time of the year. You should go back and look at their data back to 1958, and you will be hard pressed to find a colder summer in the Arctic through this time of the year!

Ciao for now.

****

WEDNESDAY 8 A.M.

HECK OF A WAY TO RUN A COOL SUMMER:

I hope my friends at the Wichita Eagle, who did a comparison of NOAA versus me on the summer forecast, are taking notice of this:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kansas-heat-wave-has-killed-rb-1249709782.html?x= 0&.v=3

Here is the headline:

Kansas heat wave has killed 2,000 cattle: state

Now here is what I need NOAA to answer. How is it you can tell us this heat this year is part of global warming, yet have been so totally wrong on the summer? I used the natural drivers of the pattern to come up with my idea, the same basis for understanding how the climate works, where it has been and where it has going, and then you come out and say the heat you did not forsee is part of something you are are shoving down our throats.

If you come out beforehand and say, "Summer is going to be hot. Here's why... it's part of global warming," that is one thing. But saying it's going to be cool, when you had people like me with the hot summer and the reasons for it, then claiming it's part of an agenda that you have loaded up on 'roids or something the last year, cause you have shoving it down our throats, well shouldn't that raise eyebrows with anyone that has a lick of objectivity?

Oh yah, weather is not climate... or something like that.

The 11-year cycle is beating your forecast... and the CFS... like a rented mule. And you have the nerve to come out after busting on that and tell us it's global warming.

Atmospheric Alice in weather wonderland... that is what this nonsense is.

Here is what the AMS should headline... 11-year cycle forecast beats billion dollar computer model. Our version of Fred the Octopus at the World Cup. (I knew there was a reason I watched the world cup... gooooooaaaaalllllll)

Boy, I am Mr. Salty Pants this morning.

Ciao for now.
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Quoting patrikdude2:
Did the models shift southward?
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Only the SE side of the circulation is open now from shower/thunderstorm activity. This system is heading to TD status this evening if this keeps up. A very well defined circulation right now and appears to be moving NW or NNW. I guess the Euro's solution of a open wave are all but gone now.
Quoting IKE:
97L...

blob
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Quoting IKE:


From the experts....

A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
IS NOT EXPECTED TO FORM TODAY
BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH AWAY FROM HISPANIOLA INTO THE
BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY.

surpises can happen man
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i just noticed the samething tampaspin did i see 2 circulations one near 71.0W and another one forming near 69.5W
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Guess what. I think I'll take myself off to enjoy the day doing something else. No use hanging around the blog when 97L is snoozing and bloggers are using up the space making ad hominem attacks and ignoring the data - such as it is - worth discussing.

L8r, all. I have a feeling 97L will get more interesting around 5 p.m. today....
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463. Relix
Finally it leaves PR! =P
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.