97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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The GOM is looking pretty wicked right now and the wave that just crossed into the Carrib is as well.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


I wouldn't say a reformation, but a low is becoming better established at the location you designated.


After i posted that i knew i should have said formation.....LOL...sorry
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Quoting BahaHurican:
...No use hanging around the blog when 97L is snoozing and bloggers are using up the space making ad hominem attacks and ignoring the data...


Yeah, I find only about 5-10% of these blog comments are worth reading. Such a shame, compared to Dr. Masters' contributions. At least his are extremely easy to locate!

I hope all in P.R. and the other islands weather the storm well. Bless.
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Quoting Asta:

Any musician worth his salt has spent some time in Louisiana.. must be something in the water...; )



Yes, and the something in the water now is oil.
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558. IKE
97L....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
536- i love iron maiden:)
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Quoting StormW:
Flood, we be showin our age!


Hey,man, we came by it honest!
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Quoting StormW:


Depends on how far 97L extends...you could see some enhanced preip. chances. Wouldn't count too much on wind right now.

Thanks also liked Procol Harum Conquistador
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Are any of the Experts seeing a reformation of a new low as i seeing IMO?


I wouldn't say a reformation, but a low is becoming better established at the location you designated.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey Flood

You still on?


Yep...right here!
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Won't the dry air effect the system???




Right click>>>View image>>>
for bigger size pic.
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Quoting StormW:


Thanks Drak!
Good to see ya on.
yea storm has been doing an excellent job on tryin to educate us but in this case he needs his back up with the stuff thats going on in here lol
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System is still too close to the DR to expect any significant development.
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ATLVOR

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Quoting Jeff9641:


What does that mean? Sorry..


That means collapsing thunderstorms.
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Are any of the Experts seeing a reformation of a new low as i seeing IMO?
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Hey Storm! .....do u think this wave has no chance of developing now? i just want the rain from it! THANKS!
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
Quoting Jeff9641:
This spin is incresing with 97L by the hour and now appears to be moving wnw or nw.
Link Vorticity has decreased. But, it does have an improved satellite appearance.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
I guess everyone is seeing the samething except for a select few. A definite COC forming right now n of DR and i think the NHC jumped the gun on canceling the recon today. This should be classified later today or tonight or straight to TS tomorrow when the recon arrives.
really? it looks kind of shabby right now. is the atmosphere getting better for development? i thought for sure 97l would be upgraded last yesterday, but it lost a lot of steam. what does it need to gather more convection? thanks in advance:)
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541. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #30
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM CHANTHU (T1003)
0:00 AM JST July 22 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Two Typhoon In Northern Part Of The South China Sea

At 15:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Chanthu (975 hPa) located at 19.3N 112.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 60 knots with gusts of 85 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest slowly.

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.1N 110.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
45 HRS: 22.4N 108.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 24.0N 105.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
If I were an ULL I would eat 97L too..



Yeah, but ur kinda freaky....
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:




"pinko commies" are cool now!


Damn straight...
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So far this is turning in to a season of patience. Things always take time to get ramped up.
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Quoting Floodman:


The Doors, Riders on the Storm...THAT was running through my head all through Jeanne...


Oh yeah, the Doors...how could I forget that one?
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533. unf97
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The ULL needs to get out of there for 97L to do a lot of good.

The ULL keeps snacking on the moisture of the invest.


The ULL, other than the interaction with Hispanola, has been the main culprit for sure. However, checking WV imagery, the ULL to the north of 97L appears that it is finally begun moving westward toward the FL peninsula, maybe W/SW. Once the ULL speeds up and moves farther away from 97L, conditions will definitely improve for 97L to spin up.
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532. IKE
12Z GFS at 60 hours...




Parallel 12Z GFS at 36 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Seems to be picking up speed moving W.N.W to N.W.
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
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97L Reminds me of the roaster. They may have come to kill her but she ain't going to die.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Hey Adrian, What do you make of this system right now?


Hey Jeff!

I'll tell you the upper environment in front of this thing is sure up for question its really anybodys guess. low levels are looking better this morning if convection manages to consolidate over this circulation which at this time i think its still in the mid levels it may very well work its way down to the surface though land proximity may hinder development a while longer.
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StormW if the storm stays south remains in tropical strength and goes through the tip of S Fla. and the straights what would be the affects up near Cocoa Beach Melbourne. Vacationing this weekend on the Ocean. Thanks
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
also everyone remember that the bahamas area is notorious for systems to develop very rapidly and it is approaching the SE bahamas
Yes, but not when upper level winds are as strong as they are now. 15-20kts+ is too high for rapid development. This system will not quickly intensify if the current shear forecast holds true.
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In other news, not looking at 37W until it gets to at least 45W.
PSU
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If I were an ULL I would eat 97L too..
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Looks like models are in a bit of disagreement here.

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
yeap , hey drak for some reason i see two circulations could it be that we have 2 centers rotating around a mean center ?????


Maybe
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Quoting Floodman:


The Doors, Riders on the Storm...THAT was running through my head all through Jeanne...


Ya know they have a hybrid of that ? :)

Doors Hybrid

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Quoting hurricanejunky:


John Lennon? That pinko commie? WINK, WINK!




"pinko commies" are cool now!
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516. unf97
Quoting reedzone:
Anyone catching thatnice ball of convection with the outerbands southeast of PR?


Good morning Reedzone. Yes, That area really has generated an impressive convective burst during the past 6-12 hours. If this persists as it moves westward in the Carribean, possibly NHC may designate as another invest. It may be far enough away from 97L to keep it from being a hindrance should that try to develop later on in the Carribean.
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Hey Flood

You still on?
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
The ULL needs to get out of there for 97L to do a lot of good.

The ULL keeps snacking on the moisture of the invest.

Snacking...been eating its arm and leg off.
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And 97L, at first just ghostly...turned a whiter shade of pale......
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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