97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting patrikdude2:
no.


Hmm, then maybe a Parrot with Tourettes is on the loose. I could swear someone keeps repeating himself over and over, ad nauseum (not you btw).
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See you'll in awhile, last word upon extensive satellite review I am forced to reverse my earlier call. I think the system will rap up this evening just above Haiti/Dominican Rep. boarder SE of the Turks and Cacaos.
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Thanks storm! i wish that i had your knowledge about weather....
Member Since: September 1, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 672
Quoting IKE:


97L looks like a basket hanging on a hook....

HAhaahaha that was funny.
haha :)
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EasternUSWVLoop

looks like the ull is running out of dry air.
squish.
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Dropsonde plan for this afternoon's mission.






Mission Plan :

NOAA 49RF will fly an NHC-tasked Synoptic Surveillancd mission around Tropical Disturbance AL97. The G-IV will leave MacDill AFB, FL 1730 UTC and will recover back at MacDill by 0150 UTC next day.

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Quoting IKE:
Blog topics today....

(1)Rock groups.
(2)Singing tunes.
(3)Praises on the back.
(4)Bye-bye 97L.
(5)It's coming back.
(6)Give it time.
(7)Season is a bust.


LOL, spot on IKE, it's what happens when a system is slow to develop and they all seem that way lately!
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Quoting Kristina40:
Is there an echo in here?
no.
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603. IKE
Quoting Kristina40:
(8) The blog died.


97L looks like a basket hanging on a hook....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
lol IKE :)

Quoting IKE:
Blog topics today....

(1)Rock groups.
(2)Singing tunes.
(3)Praises on the back.
(4)Bye-bye 97L.
(5)It's coming back.
(6)Give it time.
(7)Season is a bust.
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I don't see dry air as the main problem right now. It has a substantial moisture field around the coc. Unless of course, it's sucking in dry air at the surface. But still, I don't think that's the problem - problem is can't seem to get a sfc circ going, connected or embedded still within the TUTT - that's preventing the convection from gathering, condensing over the hard-working mid and upper circs - not enough pressure over the system to push the circ down solidly to the surface to catch enough surface lift and get the tropical engine really running.


Ok, you smart guys, I went out on a limb there - don't chew me up too bad. ;)
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(8) The blog died.
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Morn'n everyone...
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596. IKE
Blog topics today....

(1)Rock groups.
(2)Singing tunes.
(3)Praises on the back.
(4)Bye-bye 97L.
(5)It's coming back.
(6)Give it time.
(7)Season is a bust.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Skyepony:
I had almost gave up on
Atleast we still get somewhat improved models..
BR>
then 3hr fixes...1st flight tomorrow afternoon.
yay! looks like the interesting part is just beginning.
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Going to be nice to get that GIV mission today.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24549
so the ridge of pressure to it's NW is gonna keep pushing SW pushing shear and dry air away?
bringing moist air in????
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Is there an echo in here?
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587. Skyepony (Mod)
I had almost gave up on the POD

3. NOTE: THE AF MISSIONS TASKED FOR 21/1800Z, 22/06-1200Z
WERE CANX BY NHC AT 21/1130Z. THE GIV MISSION TASKED FOR
21/1730Z WILL FLY.


Atleast we still get somewhat improved models..


FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
A. 23/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0403A CYCLONE
C. 23/0300Z
D. 24.5.0N 78.5.0W
E. 23/0500Z TO 23/1200Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT


then 3hr fixes...1st flight tomorrow afternoon.
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It's gotta move. Has to get a bonified sfc low going. If it ever gets a good gulp of the warmer Gulf Stream waters, that'll be the catalyst for further development, albeit still slow because of its present proximity to land.
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580. unf97
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Probably won't see much development until about 12 hours when 97L will be pushing away from Hispaniola and the ULL may slide farther west allowing more breathing room.


Spot on!
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Quoting StormW:


Gonna be slow, Connie. I'm giving it another 36-48 hours.


the blog wont last that long lol
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Quoting cg2916:


It's moving away, should be gone in 24-36 hours according to StormW.
you mean south west?
so the ridge of pressure to it's NW is gonna keep pushing SW pushing shear and dry air away?
bringing moist air in????
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Remember Dolly, Fay, and Kyle? 97L fits right in the boat with those 3 systems.. took forever to get a closed LLC.

I would classify Alex in that group as well.
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Quoting patrikdude2:
Won't the dry air effect the system???




Right click>>>View image>>>
for bigger size pic.


It's moving away, should be gone in 24-36 hours according to StormW.
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Quoting cg2916:
I'm back! What did I miss?
my picture.
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Is anyone else seeing two different spins on visible? It seems to me like there is a main low-level exposed spin just to the west of the main convection, and another smaller spin near its southern edge, just north of the coast.
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Quoting Michfan:
So far this is turning in to a season of patience. Things always take time to get ramped up.


Remember Dolly, Fay, and Kyle? 97L fits right in the boat with those 3 systems.. took forever to get a closed LLC.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24549
Probably won't see much development until about 12 hours when 97L will be pushing away from Hispaniola and the ULL may slide farther west allowing more breathing room.
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I'm back! What did I miss?
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567. IKE
Parallel GFS at 54 hours
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
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On WVLoop it appears that 97L will be able to start getting the upper hand by DMax.
WVLoop
Stating the obvious, but there's a lot of energy there with the wave and the ULL and a lot of moist air behind our little low that's trying to form. Plus the ULL is already providing spin. So it does appear things are starting to look up for 97L, finally, after it gets through this last spate of dry air.
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564. Asta
Quoting Crawls:


Yes, and the something in the water now is oil.

Yep. It's capped for now.. Hope they truly clean up their mess.
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


Oh yeah, the Doors...how could I forget that one?


St. Lucie County Sherrif's dept. put out a CD chronicling the preparation, approach, and aftermath of Hurricane Jeanne -2004- with RIDERS ON THE STORM as background song throughout. WE ARE THE CHAMPIONS was the background song during the initial recovery. What a CD!
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The GOM is looking pretty wicked right now and the wave that just crossed into the Carrib is as well.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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