97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
Excellent satellite view. Looks like it may be trying to form a low level center just west of the convection near 21.4N 71.2W


That's what I was showing on my last comment lol, excellent observation btw.
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711. IKE
Quoting IKE:



That's where I see it too. I was just checking the latest SHIPS coordinates of 20N and 70W. I see that exactly where you do...it's moving off to the WNW.



30 knots of shear there.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Excellent satellite view. Looks like it may be trying to form a low level center just west of the convection near 21.4N 71.2W
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Quoting Floodman:


I'm several up on you:

The JFK assassination
The Tet offensive
The Apollo fire
MLK assassination
The Watts riots
The Chicago riots
RFK assassination
Kent State
The fall of Saigon
The Iran hostage crisis

I left out the invention of disco...




Hahaha I'm with you on those...Gosh I can't even believe the pictures of myself all dressed to go to the "disco" lol
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Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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707. IKE
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like there is a little low level vortex near 21.4N 71.2W on satellite imagery


That's where I see it too. I was just checking the latest SHIPS coordinates of 20N and 70W. I see that exactly where you do...it's moving off to the WNW.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Texas is slowly coming back into the Picture.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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SAL can easily be seen at 850 mb as the warmer and dryer air in the Florida area:

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Looks like there is a little low level vortex near 21.4N 71.2W on satellite imagery
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z HWRF 42 hours






72 hours




Seems to be the general feeling, WNW across the peninsula somewhere between Dade / Martin county. I personally feel Northern Broward, South Palm Beach County to be most likely.
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Nice feder band action starting to improve on the eastern side. A lopsided TS is looking more likely then a substancial TS. Notice the small bands of clouds rotating over the COC. Shows that we finally have a good LLC with the invest. Just needs deeper convection which according to the last frame, it's trying to build.

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Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Wow, I'll never forget where I was the day that tragic event took place - elementry school library watching it happen live on TV.

I hate to say that I can remember the Challenger, Discovery, the Valdez and BO oil spill, and 911.



JFK, JHK, MLK, Watts, Rodney King, Medger Evers, Fall of Saigon etc. History is fully of tragedy and triumph.

I was told once that "May you live in interesting times" was an Ancient Chinese blessing. I've been blessed.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
12Z HWRF 42 hours






72 hours


IMG height=360 alt="" src="http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/hwrf/12zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSL072.gif"

width=600>


Most likely scenario but I would think it would be a mild tropical storm, if that. However, once it gets into GOM, it may take a turn for the worst.
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Guess eastern Tx still has a slim chance of a score!!!
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Quoting DestinJeff:


No tuxedos!
Dewey is my new hero...nice avatar :)
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.
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12Z HWRF 42 hours






72 hours


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Quoting btwntx08:
thats a too far east im thinking somewhere near the la/ms border


Could be right. The TPC has it making a hard left after crossing the peninsula.

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To note on my last comment, I feel the NHC may either stay at 60% do to the last few frames showing some build up in convection and organization, or go down to 50%. Nothing below that though.
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690. IKE
12Z CMC
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Wow, I'll never forget where I was the day that tragic event took place - elementry school library watching it happen live on TV.

I hate to say that I can remember the Challenger, Discovery, the Valdez and BO oil spill, and 911.



I'm several up on you:

The JFK assassination
The Tet offensive
The Apollo fire
MLK assassination
The Watts riots
The Chicago riots
RFK assassination
Kent State
The fall of Saigon
The Iran hostage crisis

I left out the invention of disco...


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Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Wow, I'll never forget where I was the day that tragic event took place - elementry school library watching it happen live on TV.

I hate to say that I can remember the Challenger, Discovery, the Valdez and BO oil spill, and 911.
That was a freeze-frame day for me too, after I posted above I remembered and went back to read the article more closely. Apparently Challenger would have launched many days earlier but there were several delays. A dust storm in Africa caused one of those delays, that could have averted the disaster had it not occurred.
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Can somebody briefly describe what a G-IV mission is, what we get/not get from it that we do from other investigative flights?
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Convection starting to expand and organize with 97L, also over the last frame or so, convection is starting to deepen. 24-48 hours and we'll possibly be talking about TD3.
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Quoting IKE:


I'll go with 40% or 50% for now...I'd say 40%, but knowing the NHC and their conservatism I'd say it will be 50%.



img src=
I think dry air could be a factor according to that image.
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#602 & #673 --- Guess it brings a whole new meaning to Scorpions "Rock you like a hurricane".
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A little old but, exactly what I am thinking track wise.

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Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Wow, I'll never forget where I was the day that tragic event took place - elementry school library watching it happen live on TV.

I hate to say that I can remember the Challenger, Discovery, the Valdez and BO oil spill, and 911.



I was doing the same thing.... watched the Challenger disaster live in 3rd grade. :-(
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Quoting BahaHurican:


Im a little curious why this hasnt been more carefully viewed...not saying it isnt but it still looks like a really strong storm.
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674. IKE
Quoting wfyweather:
i think high 60 percent still for the two what about u guys


I'll go with 40% or 50% for now...I'd say 40%, but knowing the NHC and their conservatism I'd say it will be 50%.

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
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Quoting DestinJeff:


or the Bahamas are flexing.

# 603 It looks like a scorpion looking south with its tail on the north ready to strike!
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671. 7544
Quoting Seflhurricane:
also everyone remember that the bahamas area is notorious for systems to develop very rapidly and it is approaching the SE bahamas


agree and 97l has something it didnt have yesterday and thats a coc spining so watch this when it gets to the bahaamas i dont know what shear is but if its ok this could develop and explode like the models were showing and any blob that gets to the bahamas following 97l could do the same so no rip today on this end
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Quoting IKE:
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N93W 23N94W 18N93W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU AND INLAND THU
NIGHT. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA THROUGH FRI AS
A TROPICAL WAVE OR A LOW PRES POSSIBLY ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF
SAT AND SUN.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AND MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF
THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT AND
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA SAT AND SUN.





SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N93W 23N94W 18N93W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU AND INLAND THU
NIGHT.

Wonder where on the coast of tx this will wind up?
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Quoting leicaman:
Traffic: Freedom Rider

like a hurricane around your heart

when earth and sky are torn apart...


Niiiice
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Quoting transitzone:


Z = UTC. Bird will still be dropping sondes when the 00Z runs fire off. Might have data from the early part of the flight in for 00Z, but the full data won't make it until next after that


It will be close for the last few. Data dump for the 00Z GFS is about 10:45 PM EDT, most should make it in. NAM is about 9:15 PM EDT so a lot more are questionable for it.
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However I do want to note that the ULL is intensifying quite rapidly, it was weak last night, now it is a strong ULL. This may be a factor in 97Ls future.
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665. IKE
Quoting guygee:
I didn't remember this one either: African Dust Clouds Push Challenger Liftoff Back A Day Until Sunday
January 23, 1986


Don't remember that...
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting guygee:
I didn't remember this one either: African Dust Clouds Push Challenger Liftoff Back A Day Until Sunday
January 23, 1986


Wow, I'll never forget where I was the day that tragic event took place - elementry school library watching it happen live on TV.

I hate to say that I can remember the Challenger, Discovery, the Valdez and BO oil spill, and 911.

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i think high 60 percent still for the two what about u guys
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662. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 28N93W 23N94W 18N93W
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU AND INLAND THU
NIGHT. A RIDGE FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA THROUGH FRI AS
A TROPICAL WAVE OR A LOW PRES POSSIBLY ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF
SAT AND SUN.



SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 76W MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AND MOVE
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF
THE AREA WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THU NIGHT AND
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN SEA SAT AND SUN.


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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