97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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One feature I would like to see on this site is a predicted tropical wave time. I've noticed the waves come of off the coast of africa peridically. and once a wave is sighted it moves fairly predictably westward by prevailing + steering winds. We still don't have exact knowledge of whether it will develop or where it will make landfall, but it would be helpfull for planning to know for example(I.E. a well developed wave will cross -80Lon on Jul 21-23) a week or so in advance. It may not be a hurricane, but you wouldn't want to fly there to fish those days anyway.
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Good morning all,

Waking up to double barrel action this morning. Got to say I am not shocked, but after yesterday morning, did not know how our systems would do today.

Storm trackers love it....other part of me says "uh oh"...
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wuts the link for the latest modcels
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4309. cg2916
AL, 03, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD, 34, NEQ,
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What a difference a day makes.

Im actually impressed.

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Quoting Jeff9641:


Also up to Tampa Bay as 97L could be close by Friday night or Sat. AM.
Jeff, models seem to point it further away from tampa bay area, what's your reasoning for thinking tb area by friday. Maybe new models i'v not seen. tia
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4306. scott39
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We've got our water and perishable foods awaiting future Bonnie. Tomorrow night I'll likely be on here most of the night unless power goes out.
Theres the start of all the "D" batteries, water, and can food dissapearing. LOL
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4305. gator23
yes
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SHIPS Text still using BAMM for track though.

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* THREE AL032010 07/22/10 12 UTC *
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Calling it a TD is probably a good call for now until recon gets in there.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
any new model runs out yet? can someone post?
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Quoting extreme236:
For now it's a TD

AL, 03, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD


We have Tropical Depression 3! They will probably up it to 40 mph though.
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4299. cg2916
File: invest_al032010.invest

Breaking news! No renumber, but they have an 03L file. Weird.
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4297. gator23
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Funny sometimes.

Bring the rain, PLEASE. Our chances looked much better yesterday morning :-(

Jupiter here.

they look goo dnow. Last I checked Jupiter is in South Florida.
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4295. hcubed
"...In real America! you could have your very own opinion and will not criticize by fellow Americans..."

True. In America, you have freedom of speech.

And we have the freedom to ignore you...
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Low-level spiral bands have become much better defined.

I think there's a pretty decent shot at Bonnie.
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For now it's a TD

AL, 03, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 216N, 744W, 30, 1008, TD
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Jeff9641:
TWC say landfall will occur in S FL.
I agree, stronger system: more poleward as opposed to a weak wave going through the straights.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The center is moving somewhat and is being dragged under the heaviest convection. Shear is weakening and the ULL is moving away.



Geez. Looks like a dare I say....rapid intensification period.
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Once we have a TD or TS, the next set of model runs should give us a better idea where Bonny will be going. I am predicting a shift back to the right with a stronger storm. Any thoughts?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Wow this is a pretty strong statement! especially from the NHC




Wow is right...
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Quoting Jeff9641:
TWC say landfall will occur in S FL.



thx but do u know the website for the latest models?
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4284. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Expect a renumber shortly.


Wow! I had to backtrack the comments to see what happened. We probably have Bonnie.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
TWC say landfall will occur in S FL.


Uh-oh... now that TWC said it, it's gonna move up the east coast. :P
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TS at 11...this will make people more aware of this progressive system.
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4280. JLPR2
97L/Td3, possibly Bonnie's :| Tail is bringing rains to PR, jeez, that's one heck of a tail. -.-

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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The center is moving somewhat and is being dragged under the heaviest convection. Shear is weakening and the ULL is moving away.



Yup I see that too. 97L finally beginning to look impressive.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting Jeff9641:


Time to start over and get new tracks because that is wrong.

That was the latest on GE
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Quoting StormW:


Morning storm and boy what a morning it is!
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Where are all the "July's gonna be a bust" people now! lol
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The center is moving somewhat east and is being dragged under the heaviest convection. Shear is weakening and the ULL is moving away.

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Via Crown Weather:
The latest information from the National Hurricane Center indicates that
an area of low pressure in the southeastern Bahamas has become even
better organized in the last hour and a closed circulation has formed.
Based on this information, advisories on tropical depression 3 or
tropical storm Bonnie will be initiated at 11 am EDT/10 am CDT this
morning. Tropical storm watches and warnings will likely be issued for
parts of the Bahamas and south Florida and the Florida Keys.

I will be working on creating a storm specific page for TD 3/Bonnie over
the next couple of hours and will e-mail you the link for the page when
advisories are initiated at 11 am.
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yo guys someone link the latest models i have a feeling its gona be rita like storm going under us and exploding in the gulf
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Quoting Abacosurf:


Just shift the entire ensemble 50-75 miles north.

Center to pass north of Key West IMO. And south of Largo. 50-60 MPH.
Big Pine Key?
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Quoting scott39:
Ive seen near 0% but first time of seen near 100%.


The only other time I have seen that was with TS Agatha, and that invest that moved onshore Louisianna, NHC gave it a near 0% chance, then a 60% chance, then a near 0% chance.
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Personally, I think 97L will jump straight to Bonnie. Surface obs have been showing 39+ mph winds in the Grand Turks.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Expect a renumber shortly.


Only question now is, TD or TS at 11? We'll see
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You'll probably be under a TS warning shortly.
We've got our water and perishable foods awaiting future Bonnie. Tomorrow night I'll likely be on here most of the night unless power goes out.
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Morning all .TKeith on post 4204 could you give me the link for the site page to that WV imagery. Thanks
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Wow this is a pretty strong statement! especially from the NHC


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Quoting scott39:
Ive seen near 0% but first time of seen near 100%.


I've seen it in the EPAC once this season.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
4262. 7544
morning all wow looks like 97l has formed nice overnight and u can see the conv buliding around the coc now pres dropping

and as the nhc says we could see td3 at anytime but i think it will a ts shortly after that . looks like that old cmc has this one right on and this could get stronger just before it reaches so fla
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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