97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey Flood

We keep passing like ships in the night. Got one just for you. While I was in Hospital (as the Brits say) they had to dope me higher than a Georgia pine to keep me still enough to run all the iv's they had stuck in me.

My daughter reports that at one point I sat up, looked around and said, "Wow, It's weirder than a Grateful Dead concert in here. People jumping off the bleachers and .. Then laid back and passed out again.

Hope 97L sends some moisture to VA cause we need it desperately..


Same here in Richmond.
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761. 7544
stays at 60% beginging to get darker red now looking more round getting some spunk back tonight willl tell the story the models are not backing off this one yet
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July 1st, 2001 Severe Weather Outbreak

I remember tracking this back in middle school. Tornado touchdown 15 minutes east of where I lived on Long Island.
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Quoting P451:
A bit off topic but quite noteworthy:

175 people dead in south american cold



Wow…what a tragedy. I never thought I would read such a headline about South America.

v/r

Jon
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Ha ha Pat... you are clever. Just trying to make a point that all of history isn't negative.

What about technologies... computers, medicines, etc. I really like my plasma tv!

There have to be some positive events as well...
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12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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752. IKE
Quoting P451:


Yup...that's where I see it too.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
I remember seeing alot of news footage on Andrew... I was so young at the time lol
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This reminds me of 95L back in 2002. Fizzled out too.


j/k but since everytime a blob forms, someone says "looks like it could be (fill in the blank) from (fill in the year)," I thought the ones that fizzle out should remind us of other famous fizzler outers from years past.

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u all are confusing me!! lol :)
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


That would surely do a number on the current modeling.


Why?

The Circ center has been well tracked within the ensembles all along. Thus the tight clustering. The Steering is well established
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747. IKE
12Z UKMET @ 60 hours...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
just wondering where the CMC is getting the second Low that moves into the gulf after 97L heads towards TX?

Thanks :)
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Quoting smmcdavid:


Do you guys remember any of the good stuff???


Tang and The Pocket Fisherman..?
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Quoting Drakoen:
Excellent satellite view. Looks like it may be trying to form a low level center just west of the convection near 21.4N 71.2W


That would surely do a number on the current modeling.
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Quoting Floodman:


I'm several up on you:

The JFK assassination
The Tet offensive
The Apollo fire
MLK assassination
The Watts riots
The Chicago riots
RFK assassination
Kent State
The fall of Saigon
The Iran hostage crisis

I left out the invention of disco...




Bay of Pigs
Cuban missile crisis
Buddy Holly and Big Bopper plane crash
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Quoting FormerTigergirl:


Hahaha I'm with you on those...Gosh I can't even believe the pictures of myself all dressed to go to the "disco" lol


Do you guys remember any of the good stuff???
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Somebody's supposed to be sailing from JAX to PR, but I doubt they will actually CHOOSE to sail through that rough wx... lol


My husband is the one on a cargo ship going from Jax to PR this week - they are on a specfic schedule and route, and generally don't change their route unless it is an actual hurricane to avoid.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Texas is slowly coming back into the Picture.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

Landfall Points

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


hmmmmm.....
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Hey Flood

We keep passing like ships in the night. Got one just for you. While I was in Hospital (as the Brits say) they had to dope me higher than a Georgia pine to keep me still enough to run all the iv's they had stuck in me.

My daughter reports that at one point I sat up, looked around and said, "Wow, It's weirder than a Grateful Dead concert in here. People jumping off the bleachers and .. Then laid back and passed out again.

Hope 97L sends some moisture to VA cause we need it desperately..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
They'll probably keep it at 60% if not 50% at the next TWO.


Exactly my thinking, especially now that the LLC is visible and there.. They won't back off to quickly, this was what they were looking for, a LLC.
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Quoting IKE:
Make that 20-30 knots of shear there.


Yea, the upper level low will have to move away some more before it can wrap around the convection, but at least there is something in the lower levels that is more discernable than yesterday.
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Quoting StormW:


I don't remember 3rd grade.


Oh man...third grade...Mrs. Connors...whew!
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They'll probably keep it at 60% if not 50% at the next TWO.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:
jason you truelly are an idiot look at reeds comment


Anyone who keeps talking about him.. is in the same boat. Thats what he wants.. he wins.. you lose... get a grip.
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Quoting btwntx08:
ok how many times to i have to say this ull moving away no dry air will be the problem it has a moisture shield as well
I understand but they dont dont they always ask the same questions over and over this gets on my last nerves
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Quoting P451:
While 97L continues it's journey there is something of more importance to watch today: People who aren't used to damaging severe weather are going to get it today.


Looping image....



Do you remember July 1st, 2001?? What an outbreak that was, this is similar..
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That ULL still wacking on 97L big time...
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722. IKE
Make that 20-30 knots of shear there.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
LOL @ 688

Hurricane - 30 Seconds to Mars
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Quoting FormerTigergirl:


Hahaha I'm with you on those...Gosh I can't even believe the pictures of myself all dressed to go to the "disco" lol


I never went into one (no, really); I was always too busy down the street, playing guitar in the Blues Bar
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Quoting FLdewey:
My tropical storm kit is beer in the fridge and a pantry full of snacks.

As far as jasoniscoolman2010x goes just ignore him and please stop quoting him. He's on par with the other one.


As I looked over my ignore list, I realized that jasoniscoolman2010 was on it. I guess that adding ax "X" to the end of his name didn't help him much. Now I have a matched pair...
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Quoting Drakoen:
Excellent satellite view. Looks like it may be trying to form a low level center just west of the convection near 21.4N 71.2W


If it can start to wrap the thunderstorms around the center, it should be well on its way.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


JFK, JHK, MLK, Watts, Rodney King, Medger Evers, Fall of Saigon etc. History is fully of tragedy and triumph.

I was told once that "May you live in interesting times" was an Ancient Chinese blessing. I've been blessed.


Shen, "May you live in interesting times" is a Chinese CURSE
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713. 7544
hmmmm new moe models show cmc takes the blob now behind 97l to follow 97l path thats two stroms hmmmmm
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Quoting Drakoen:
Excellent satellite view. Looks like it may be trying to form a low level center just west of the convection near 21.4N 71.2W


That's what I was showing on my last comment lol, excellent observation btw.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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