97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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"Wings and a Prayer," a mythical journey of Louisiana's endangered state bird, the brown pelican, is told in art and music.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Down to 50%. However, will likely go back up tonight.


Or down I say.
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806. Skyepony (Mod)
Gulf boats having trouble finding any oil: US official

(AFP) – 55 minutes ago

WASHINGTON — Some 750 boats drafted in to scoop up oil from the Gulf of Mexico are having "trouble" finding any crude in the sea, a top US official said Wednesday, almost a week after a busted well was capped.

"We are starting to have trouble finding oil," US pointman Admiral Thad Allen, who is in charge of handling the government's response, told reporters.
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50/50, sounds reasonable..I expect chances to go back to 60% IF convection can build near the LLC which is around 71W and 21N. The ULL remains a strong ULL, but is expected to move away from 97L tonight.
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Quoting AllStar17:
Down to 50%. However, will likely go back up tonight.

i would have left it at 60 percent becuase it has a llc now
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Looks like the NHC coded it back to orange, 50% but their full TWO isn't out yet.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

The second ones are yesterday's 18Z early cycle statistical run.



Yup...the ATCF page Burped a server
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Stephen Schneider has a very good book called Laboratory Earth. It's fun to see the science that the book has.
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797. IKE
90 degrees outside, at my location.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Floodman:


That's outstanding!

I have been there, by the way...the Dead concert and the, um state of mind you were in


Knew you had. Why I saved it till I was sure you were on.
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The ULL will play an important part in the next day on what happens. Because it is a storm that will potentially pass over land masses it has the potential to develop only as a Tropical Storm. Weather forecasting is tricky with this type of system. However, this site is the best site for seeing what a lot of great minds input have to say. It takes away the guess work with the amount of experience this site pulls into it. Educated as well as natural talent combines to give us a good look at what is happening. Thanks go out to all who participate as well as those who created this site.
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Quoting Patrap:


ATCF isnt a "FOX" product

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





The second ones are yesterday's 18Z early cycle statistical run.
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its at 50%
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790. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA HAVE DISRUPTED THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS
MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OT TWO AS THE
WAVE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TODAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37860
Quoting Jeff9641:
I do suspect from talking to the NWS of Melbourne that the northern traks will play out. THe GFDL and HWRF were right once again it looks.


why because they take it closest to you? we are still 48 hours away on a system that does not have a defined center just yet; and yet you are saying the northern models are right?

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788. 7544
modles are not backing off this could indeed a so fla storm imo
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Down to 50%. However, will likely go back up tonight.
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I was referring to the one from the 12z Link Do any other models hint anything about a second system?

Thanks everyone :)
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50% and orange...
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Like I suspected.. 50%.
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Anyone looking at the latest 97L vis loop and notice the counter clockwise swirl breaking off to the WNW away from the blob of convection now?
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Quoting Drakoen:
This new low that is developing is further away from Hispaniola so the storm's inflow should not get distrupted; the biggest issue now is the upper level low.


The new low appears to be moving west.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Ha ha Pat... you are clever. Just trying to make a point that all of history isn't negative.

What about technologies... computers, medicines, etc. I really like my plasma tv!

There have to be some positive events as well...


It tends to balance out...
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Quoting rmbjoe1954:


The ULL will impact 97L because it is supposed to be a weak system, right? That's why I agree it will take a more northerly track; yet I feel until it gets stacked and intialized I will believe in the models.


Yes like an east coaster.
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This new low that is developing is further away from Hispaniola so the storm's inflow should not get distrupted; the biggest issue now is the upper level low.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Bay of Pigs
Cuban missile crisis
Buddy Holly and Big Bopper plane crash
I'd like to see Grothars list...
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Quoting Eagle101:


Wow…what a tragedy. I never thought I would read such a headline about South America.

v/r

Jon
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What's the difference between paptraps and storms models...both say 12z
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Quoting P451, post #738:


Houston, we have a center!

Looks like it's under a lot of wind shear, though...
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Quoting Jeff9641:
HWRF and GFDL show this taking a Jeanne/Frances track again and I contacted the NWS of Melbourne for reasons why the HWRF & GFDL remain consistant and the reason is the ULL to the n tugging at it. So a southern track of the models may never occur.


The ULL will impact 97L because it is supposed to be a weak system, right? That's why I agree it will take a more northerly track; yet I feel until it gets stacked and intialized I will believe in the models.
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey Flood

We keep passing like ships in the night. Got one just for you. While I was in Hospital (as the Brits say) they had to dope me higher than a Georgia pine to keep me still enough to run all the iv's they had stuck in me.

My daughter reports that at one point I sat up, looked around and said, "Wow, It's weirder than a Grateful Dead concert in here. People jumping off the bleachers and .. Then laid back and passed out again.

Hope 97L sends some moisture to VA cause we need it desperately..


That's outstanding!

I have been there, by the way...the Dead concert and the, um state of mind you were in
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Challenger Disaster
John Lennon Death
1989 Earthquake (World Series)
OKC Bombing
9/11
Indonesian Tsunami
MJ Death
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Quoting Jeff9641:
HWRF and GFDL show this taking a Jeanne/Frances track again and I contacted the NWS of Melbourne for reasons why the HWRF & GFDL remain consistant and the reason is the ULL to the n tugging at it. So a southern track of the models may never occur.


They may be picking up of the weak trough over New England that the GFS has been showing. The other models only slightly pick up on it, and move it out of the area quickly, while the GFS keeps it over the area for a few days, and a little bit farther south.
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Quoting Floodman:


Shen, "May you live in interesting times" is a Chinese CURSE
All of the time that has been recorded accurately is interesting to me....Which brings to mind a funny quote by Ovid "Let others praise ancient times; I am glad I was born in these. Circa 10 B.C.E..
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Ha ha Pat... you are clever. Just trying to make a point that all of history isn't negative.

What about technologies... computers, medicines, etc. I really like my plasma tv!

There have to be some positive events as well...


The Fall of the Berlin Wall.


The Civil Rights Legislation.


"Saints win a Super Bowl before Detroit"

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey Flood

We keep passing like ships in the night. Got one just for you. While I was in Hospital (as the Brits say) they had to dope me higher than a Georgia pine to keep me still enough to run all the iv's they had stuck in me.

My daughter reports that at one point I sat up, looked around and said, "Wow, It's weirder than a Grateful Dead concert in here. People jumping off the bleachers and .. Then laid back and passed out again.

Hope 97L sends some moisture to VA cause we need it desperately..


Same here in Richmond.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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