97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Patrap, have you been reading any dianetics lately. God I butchered this post.
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Quoting StormW:


CURRENT 700-850mb Steering
Do you think the word "could develope" is too conservative from the NHC at 2?
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Quoting P451:


The numbers are largely irrelevant.

We all know what we see.

This one has a chance and we are watching it. It's not like we'll stop watching it because they dropped their percentage potential...nor will we all suddenly watch it just because they upped it.

It's just a label.

Let's operate in reality: We have a disturbance that is showing it wants to organize. We have some prime water for it to cross. In the meanttime it's fighting some problems but they look to be subsiding.


i know that that why i feel they made the wrong dission in lowering it to a medium chance when this has a high chance of affecting u.s. soil
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Quoting P451:


The numbers are largely irrelevant.

We all know what we see.

This one has a chance and we are watching it. It's not like we'll stop watching it because they dropped their percentage potential...nor will we all suddenly watch it just because they upped it.

It's just a label.

Let's operate in reality: We have a disturbance that is showing it wants to organize. We have some prime water for it to cross. In the meanttime it's fighting some problems but they look to be subsiding.



Word...
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Quoting hydrus:
...The invasion of Italy by Hannibal(218 B.C.E.)..The Punic Wars(146 149 B.C.E.)......The Chavin culture ruled Northern Peru.....


He and I first met at Naupactus; man, was THAT a party!
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Quoting Drakoen:
Good station to watch near the LLC. Pressures are falling and winds are increasing.

13:44 82.0 °F 76.0 °F 29.86in ENE 30.0mph - 82%
drak you are right
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you aren't looking at the steering layers right then. You are right it is ok to be wrong


LOL!!
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Quoting Patrap:


The Fall of the Berlin Wall.


The Civil Rights Legislation.


"Saints win a Super Bowl before Detroit"



Well..if you're going to go in that direction, Brett Favre plays for the Vikings.
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Earth 1 before the Mars Sized Impactor,,was really warm,and no Moon as well.

Grothar used to Hog the Water back then too.
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See, so confused I don't know what time it is. AFTERNOON everyone.
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Quoting SQUAWK:


Bay of Pigs
Cuban missile crisis
Buddy Holly and Big Bopper plane crash

Civil war!!
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Quoting 7544:
moving westard now hmmmmm not too good right
what you mean not to go for us or the storm
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Good station to watch near the LLC. Pressures are falling and winds are increasing.
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It is pretty clear that even at its position near the T & C Islands, the steering takes it to the southern end of the track guidance

we will know more when the G IV plane goes and that data is put into the models, but as of right now, the tracks of the 06Z GFDL and HWRF are not likely
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North, South, East, West, Can we all agree that no one is for sure where it is going yet? All this is doing is confusing everyone. And good morning StormW, Pat, Jeff, P451, KoTG
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Quoting Drakoen:
It's going to take probably another 24 hour or so with 97L working with this now low level center and the upper level low backing away before significant development takes place.


Exactly! The ULL is stronger then what was forecast and more expandable to effect 97Ls progress today.
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T-rexs and later on wooly mammoths...I heard he has a tusk from one he personally took down :P
Quoting hydrus:
...The invasion of Italy by Hannibal(218 B.C.E.)..The Punic Wars(146 149 B.C.E.)......
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Quoting Patrap:


Why?

The Circ center has been well tracked within the ensembles all along. Thus the tight clustering. The Steering is well established


12Z
AL, 97, 2010072112, , BEST, 0, 200N, 700W, 30, 1013, DB, 34,

1.4 degrees N 1.2 degrees W from the 12Z location, that's NW.
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Quoting hydrus:
...The invasion of Italy by Hannibal(218 B.C.E.)..The Punic Wars(146 149 B.C.E.)......
1066 and All That
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832. 7544
so if its moving west as the nhc says will go wnw or nw again when in gthe bahamas tia
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As relates to positive history. To many to name 1)Archimedes 2) Newton 3) Einstein all tied for 1st. Runner up Eward Jenner.
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Not at it's current position. Man it's alright to be wrong.. The COC looks to be near the Turks.


you aren't looking at the steering layers right then. You are right it is ok to be wrong
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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Knew you had. Why I saved it till I was sure you were on.


LOL
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Quoting tkeith:
I'd like to see Grothars list...
Some of you were not born yet when Elvis died! Probably many more to come.
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12Z GFDL a bit south.. Coming into line with the consensus.

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Quoting Drakoen:
It's going to take probably another 24 hour or so with 97L working with this now low level center and the upper level low backing away before significant development takes place.


As per the forecast Guidance


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only way this follows the GFDL and HWRF is if it blows up faster than anticipated

right now I do not see that happening
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Quoting reedzone:


Well you have to take acount that the ULL is stronger then anticipated and is more far fetched enough to disrupt 97L once again. So confidence is lower.

they should have put it at 55 percent but they only go by tens
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819. 7544
moving westard now hmmmmm not too good right
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Quoting Jeff9641:


No because the COC appears to be much further NW than 8am this morning. If this is the case then a southern track is not likely.


the steering currents would still take it towards the southern end of the guidance

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I've been visiting this site for years and finally created an account!!

I live in Vero Beach Florida where several models predict this system to cross. We can use the rain but I dont want any higher winds than tropical force...hate the whole shutter rountine.
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It's going to take probably another 24 hour or so with 97L working with this now low level center and the upper level low backing away before significant development takes place.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

i would have left it at 60 percent becuase it has a llc now


Well you have to take acount that the ULL is stronger then anticipated and is more far fetched enough to disrupt 97L once again. So confidence is lower.
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Quoting StormW:
12Z Shear Forecast @ 18 Hours



97L will be moving right with the shear
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.