97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Once again, remember Katrina never formed into a Hurricane until right before it hit Florida... and then once into the GULF...
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Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
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Becomming a little more distinct on the MIMIC-TPW:

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Quoting Neapolitan:


Based on the latest guidance (to which StormW keeps very patiently and repeatedly referring) the only way this thing makes a direct hit is if its CoC suddenly re-situates itself 400 or so miles north of its current position. Other than that highly unlikely scenario, it ain't gonna happen.
thank you. well put
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Even a weather hack like myself can see that the Parrotheads in Key West best be on their perches. Steering looks pretty clear. Its after that where youll get your divergence in the lack of consensus. Im guessing that once the models get a fix on a developed coc we'll have a pretty solid track thru the Straits...
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907. 7544
yep yep getting larger in size at this hour tho more of round looking shape today
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Quoting StormW:


Well, 97L is being steered by the shallow layer mean (700-850mb) An Upper level low is up at 300-200mb


Ohh, I see, thanks.. I'm still learning these things lol.
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NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Wed 21 Jul 2010 17:45:01Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
97L.INVEST
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
99W.INVEST
04W.CHANTHU
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I go away for a few hours and we have ORANGE.
.
.
This is reminding of the terror color alerts prior to the 2004 election. Those colors jumped around like Lotto balls, attempting to keep terror in the minds of the voters.
.
.
Red this morning, now orange. Tonight may bring a move back to RED, or perhaps we'll see a move to YELLOW folowed by a move to RED. Or perhaps we'll never see RED again. Orange you glad we have these colors?


Time for a fruit salad lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
That southerly path predicted by some models would be a disaster. I'm not concerned about TS or Hurricane Bonnie making landfall in Texas or Louisiana... but rather the oil spill in the Gulf.

The southerly paths would take (future) Bonnie just South of the oil spill. Winds & waves will push the spill further onto the beaches in Mississippi & Alabama and perhaps further into Lake Ponchartrain and the Louisiana marsh land.

That path would tend to keep the spill away from Florida, but would push more of the oil slick onto the barrier islands, inlets and bays.

We may also see more rapid intensification if the storm moves through the Florida straits rather than making contact with land as predicted by some models.
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Lol Dewey, flail-casters
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Supports a center near 21.4N 71.2W

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Quoting ssmate:
Not this time.


LOL

He's a Good Dude,,but his Time is past.

He Lives about a Hour away in Kiln,Miss.

... been spotted throwing with the Local High School.


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I go away for a few hours and we have ORANGE.
.
.
This is reminding of the terror color alerts prior to the 2004 election. Those colors jumped around like Lotto balls, attempting to keep terror in the minds of the voters.
.
.
Red this morning, now orange. Tonight may bring a move back to RED, or perhaps we'll see a move to YELLOW folowed by a move to RED. Or perhaps we'll never see RED again. Orange you glad we have these colors?
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Quoting Patrap:


Sept 9th NFL Opener.

Saints Vs Vikings, Superdome

"Farve on da ground"..

.....again.
Not this time.
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Drak, Storm
If this system continues on its current path, when do you expect it to make landfall if it ever does?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Yes it is and alot. FLL to the Cape seems more reasonable for landfall.


Based on the latest guidance (to which StormW keeps very patiently and repeatedly referring) the only way this thing makes a direct hit [that far north] is if its CoC suddenly re-situates itself 400 or so miles north of its current position. Other than that highly unlikely scenario, it ain't gonna happen.
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Current Surface analysis has the 1014MB weakness in the ridge extending to 25N to the North of the T&C. The deep layer analysis has a weakness goes even farther north to 30N
With the center so far north already I'd lay large odds on the northern tracks. Going ashore between Stuart and Cape Canaveral and never making it back out to the Gulf.

Convection it not impressive on IR Sat and the last few frames of visible sat loop show some shearing to the NE and dry air to the NW.
But it's over warm water with a lot of heat and moisture flowing in from the E and SE
It also has sea room and a good rotation going with a band to the NE taking shear and bringing in moisture so will continue a steady development. A strong TS or possibly to a Cat 1 hurricane over the very warm waters of the Gulf Stream right before it hits land.
97L will cross or be over the Gulf Stream so last minute intensification is possible.

It is small so can intensify quickly.

If it's not a TD at 2:00 a TD/TS at 5:00-8:00


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But I bet you took one.
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Quoting StormW:


What's a upper level low got to do with it?


I would think storms would track under or over ULLs, like 97L is tracking under the ULL.. I might be wrong.. Though the steering shows anything moving north of Mexico.

Quoting P451:


The ULL could now in fact be the primary player here. It simply stayed intact and moved slowly. Wasn't modeled to do so. Now it's a player.

Since we're leaving land behind that's no longer a real inhibitor. ULL is now the primary problem for organization.

Almost looks to some degree like 97L has no shot now given that. Yet you can't say that with certainty just yet.


Which is why confidence was lowered 10% down. The ULL is moving quickly now and may give room for 97L to breathe.
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Quoting Patrap:


She dosent move like she used 2.

U may be correct ,Sir
If you were as old as she is neither would you....Ohh wait you are....LOL
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Quoting Floodman:


He and I first met at Naupactus; man, was THAT a party!
Hello FloodMan. I hope you are having a splendid afternoon. If you have a moment, Please read post number 812 once more.
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Quoting StormW:


No...cause it "could develop"
Thanks
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Are those European Cars..?

I never drove a Cruise or a Travolta.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


today is the 21st, it is scheduled for tomorrow


Right.. gotcha.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
17:30 UTC.. its 17:52 UTC right now. Anyone got any data yet?


today is the 21st, it is scheduled for tomorrow
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
StormW, Could you post your Synopsis for me please?
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Last question have Cruise and Travolta ever been spotted in the big easy.
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17:30 UTC.. its 17:52 UTC right now. Anyone got any data yet?
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Quoting FLdewey:
Only this blog could fight over a sickly invest. Then again this blog can compare a 5% tornado risk to an outbreak. It always provides some entertainment at work.

I'll take my free spin Pat... and I'm starting to think Vanna is animatronic. :-o


She dosent move like she used 2.

U may be correct ,Sir
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Hey now.. hold on... a twinkie is real money :)


Especially the vintage ones.

I think I have a couple in the Hurricane kit - they last forever, right?
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Quoting Jeff9641:
The GFDL and HWRF are brand new tracks and haven't changed much in 2 days but i guess there wrong right.

I just dont feel right throwing out our most reliable models. Out of all of them they have been the most consistent.
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Station 41046
NDBC
Location: 23.836N 70.863W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 21 Jul 2010 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (90°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 25.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (115°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.01 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 74.3 F
Water Temperature: 83.8 F

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41046

Full-screen
Station 41043
NDBC
Location: 21.061N 64.966W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 21 Jul 2010 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (100°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.02 in and falling
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Dew Point: 73.9 F
Water Temperature: 82.6 F

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

Full-screen
Station 41047
NDBC
Location: 27.469N 71.491W
Conditions as of:
Wed, 21 Jul 2010 16:50:00 UTC
Winds: E (80°) at 15.5 kt gusting to 17.5 kt
Significant Wave Height: 5.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Mean Wave Direction: SE (131°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 30.17 in and steady
Air Temperature: 82.9 F
Dew Point: 75.6 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41047
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869. 7544
getting orgainzed right storm looks like conv. building around the coc
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FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. 23/0000Z
B. NOAA9 03BBA SURV
C. 22/1730Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
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What time does the GIV go in?
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Quoting gordydunnot:
Patrap who been reading any dianetics lately.


Never have,,

I fear Hubbard
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Quoting StormW:


Once again:



STEERING LAYERS FORECAST

PSU

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP:

Look closely at he small tiny popcorn clouds at the surface:
VIS LOOP


South Florida to the Straits is a good bet by looking at that. Notice the upper level low in the BOC blocking a track to Mexico and Southern Texas.
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Patrap, have you been reading any dianetics lately. God I butchered this post.
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.