97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting reedzone:


It looks like 97L is becoming more organized in structure today, just waiting on the ULL to move far enough away for additional development to occur. I'm thinking if conditions play out right, we will have TD3 by tomorrow sometime, more likely in the afternoon. We'll see I guess.
The ULL is really moving on now. Do you see that dry path in front of 97L slowing intensification once it developes?
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Quoting Drakoen:
High winds and decreasing pressure being reported at this station near 97L.


That is more than the usual pressure drop.
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Quoting Caribbeanislands101:

Storm, do you think this system will it to a moderate TS before a florida impact?

Hey levi!!
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The ULL seems to be moving in tandem with 97L rather than kicking away.. thoughts?
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Quoting Drakoen:


Nothing. If you mean Bay of Campeche... nothing just a surface trough and it's associated convection
No, I meant Bay of Honduras per your post #898 850mb Vorticity map. Looks like something is going on in that area but what I know about meterology could hold in a thimble so appreciate it if you can clear this up for me. TIA
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Good afternoon all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 21st, with Video
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Quoting StormW:


When it crosses land! (j/k) I would say close to 72 hours...give or take. All depends on where the COC becomes a solid, closed entity.

Storm, do you think this system will it to a moderate TS before a florida impact?
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The TWO's seem to be less confident on the environment. Which to me could become more favorable by Sat when it is in the straits.

Edit: doesn't mean it can't strengthen but it could be favorable for more what seems currently.

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High winds and decreasing pressure being reported at this station near 97L.
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Hey Storm, is it easier for a tropical system to develop a surface low when it has alot of thunderstorm activity or when there is very little. I would think the bigger and more spread out the thunderstorm activity the harder it would be to pull down to the surface.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 203
Quoting Drakoen:
Supports a center near 21.4N 71.2W



If that were to be the case than it would be assumed that environment is the remaining issue?
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What is going on in the Bay of Honduras ? TIA


Nothing. If you mean Bay of Campeche... nothing just a surface trough and it's associated convection
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Quoting JRRP:
16n 63w???


This is not related to invest 97, very interesting
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This system is having a hard time getting it's act together
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Hello everyone I have been reading this blog and the other one since yesterday and it is so helpful, I want to thank you (most of you) for so much input I find weather so fascinating and I have learned a lot even though I don't understand a lot when it comes to the more technical side but with people like Storm it sure does help!!!! (I'm in FL by the way)..YIKES..LOL
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Quoting Drakoen:
Supports a center near 21.4N 71.2W

What is going on in the Bay of Honduras ? TIA
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Quoting Jedkins01:
As Dr. Masters stated, the path will be pretty straight forward, an easy forecast, a persistent high should steer the system into south/central Florida. There's really no need for forecast path debate really.

Maybe once the system has a chance in the gulf, then the uncertainty will begin.
Im sure Dr. Masters welcomes debate on this blog. Thats how people that dont know what thier talking about on a certain subject----- Learn!
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Quoting Drakoen:
Becomming a little more distinct on the MIMIC-TPW:

Became more distinct in a hurry too.
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939. JRRP
16n 63w???

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Quoting DestinJeff:
Yeah Post 901 causing troubles. Please modify / remove.


Admin took care of it.
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Quoting StormW:


That's no problem. Dat's what we here for.

You hold your own on here. Not bad, not bad at all!


It looks like 97L is becoming more organized in structure today, just waiting on the ULL to move far enough away for additional development to occur. I'm thinking if conditions play out right, we will have TD3 by tomorrow sometime, more likely in the afternoon. We'll see I guess.
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934. Bonz
By all means correct me (my weather knowledge is, uh, well, low) but does Storm's steering layer picture last page show that the storm (in whatever form it takes) will go through the Florida Straits?
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Drak, what do you view the percentages on 97L ever becoming a tropical cyclone?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
anybody notice some funky blog shifts? avatars above names, etc


Someone posted something with a width that stretched the entire page horizontally. It'll drop off soon, and all will be back to normal...
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 211801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER REMAINS OVER AND N OF HISPANIOLA
AND PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS 25N67W SW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO NEAR 18N70W. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS AND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HISPANIOLA
HAVE DISRUPTED THE STRUCTURE OF THE DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING.
THE AXIS OF THE DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10-15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE
DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TODAY.
..UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE ON THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LEWITSKY
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Am I crazy, looking at a different sat vis loop or did Avila write the the 14:00 TWO this morning because he had a hot lunch date...
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Quoting btwntx08:

that was the previous run this current run has it going into central LA
Who are you? ..Model Update Man??..lol Thank you for telling me...I will check it now.
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Looking at Atlantic visible if nothing becomes of Bonnie wannabee, we all will be forced to take a vacation for a week or two.Hey where did the Doc. say he was going I'm sure he would be delighted to spend some time with his adoring fans not.
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I can't read any posts unless I open the first post then is shows the rest.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
anybody notice some funky blog shifts? avatars above names, etc


Sounds like you got computer problems or a virus.

Better check the comp temp see if its sick.
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Post 901 check you code...
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Quoting Jedkins01:
As Dr. Masters stated, the path will be pretty straight forward, an easy forecast, a persistent high should steer the system into south/central Florida. There's really no need for forecast path debate really.

Maybe once the system has a chance in the gulf, then the uncertainty will begin.


Exactly... Most people don't want to except this solution.
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Were being assimilated maybe..?
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Quoting StormW:


INVEST 97L SYNOPSIS ISSUED 10:35 A.M. JULY 21, 2010
Thanks for another informative Synopsis. Do you have any recourses That allow you to determine how large this Invest could get once in the GOM?
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As Dr. Masters stated, the path will be pretty straight forward, an easy forecast, a persistent high should steer the system into south/central Florida. There's really no need for forecast path debate really.

Maybe once the system has a chance in the gulf, then the uncertainty will begin.
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Quoting louisianaweatherguy:
Once again, remember Katrina never formed into a Hurricane until right before it hit Florida... and then once into the GULF...

yepper
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Quoting Floodman:


He and I first met at Naupactus; man, was THAT a party!
The GEM model has 97L going acrossed the southern tip of Florida into the Gulf all the way to central Texas.....It is still a stinkin blob, it is not model worthy yet...!/Link
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I wonder how this will look on the 12z run?? Edit - Hummm, it switched on me :)



http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/WTVT/custom/models/wrf/wrf_uscarib.html
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Once again, remember Katrina never formed into a Hurricane until right before it hit Florida... and then once into the GULF...
Member Since: July 9, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 692

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.