97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like the NOAA plane is enroute to survey the area


the GIV plane?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Just read this article in the Pensacola paper at pnj.com
"Florida officials said today that supplemental boom will be removed from Panhandle waters in the next three to four days in light of a potential tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico."


“During a tropical storm boom can cause additional damage to the natural resources that we are trying to protect from oil spill impacts,” DEP Secretary Michael W. Sole said in a press release. “Given the current oil spill trajectories and the tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, we think this is the best decision for Florida’s communities.”
Someone is paying attention
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Way early in the season?

Its July 20th.



21st. Either this may not be that bad of a season or it could explode in matter of time.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Quoting xcool:
SHIP 35K WOW



??????
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1105. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting Patrap:


Dont know bout us..but the Pelicans and other wildlife aint been to pleased about it.










"Wings and a Prayer," a mythical journey of Louisiana's endangered state bird, the brown pelican, is told in art and music.



ok I will keep that in mind...lol
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Image didn't show. Link What is the story with these models, they appear confused at 2pm.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Way early in the season?

Its July 20th.



in terms of development, come on you know that a majority of the storms that develop do so AFTER this date and not before it

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1100. scott39
Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF still shows the problem with the upper low moving in tandem with 97L and not giving it any room. By 48 hours 97L is near western Cuba and the upper low is just to the west over the central gulf, bringing over 30 knots of southerly wind over the system. At 72 hours the situation is the same with the upper low nearing Texas and 97L just falls apart over the gulf and spreads out.

12z ECMWF 48-hour surface pressures (solid black contours) and 200mb winds (colored wind barbs):

Does ULL show any signs of weakening now on the water vapor image? How reliable have maps been in the past with forecasting a ULLSs progress that far out? Im trying to learn-- thanks
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775
1099. xcool
2010-Jul-21 00:00 N 20°12' W 073°24' 080 35K 1014.3 10.8 4.0 28.3 24.2 29.0
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
1098. unf97
Storm,

I know all of the attention is on 97L as it should be, but I wanted to get your thoughts on the wave in the Eastern Carribean well SE of Puerto Rico. The convection continues to flare up with that system. Have you had a chance to analyze that wave?
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1097. Drakoen
Looks like the NOAA plane is enroute to survey the area
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
shear may never be favorable enough for 97L

this could just be another tease, but we are still way early in the season


Way early in the season?

Its July 20th.

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Quoting ho77yw00d:
This may be a stupid question but does anyone think that the oil spill affecting our waters (ocean) an what not could play a role in our eco system being disrupted which could cause more problems for us... such as storms, weather,and ect....?


Can't see how, unless mother nature has a brain and is mad about all the problems we caused...
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1093. Patrap
K struck the Gulf Coast the 29th.

And 5 years isnt along time post calamity for many.

So we can Bally Hoo our Losses, some very personal in our own way.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275

What is the story with these?
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Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF still shows the problem with the upper low moving in tandem with 97L and not giving it any room. By 48 hours 97L is near western Cuba and the upper low is just to the west over the central gulf, bringing over 30 knots of southerly wind over the system. At 72 hours the situation is the same with the upper low nearing Texas and 97L just falls apart over the gulf and spreads out.

12z ECMWF 48-hour surface pressures (solid black contours) and 200mb winds (colored wind barbs):



That is one evil ULL (at least for 97L). Rain will do here. I really don't need 40mph gusts with it.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
IMO, the only "Stupid" question are the question that are not asked. Now as for answers....Well, we won't go there.
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Quoting CapeObserver:


Going out to mow the lawn shortly. Will report back on my findings.


If the ants start moving rapidly in a swirl pattern, that means you just ran over them with the lawnmower. Back the mower off about 10 feet and watch to see which way they migrate. If they stagger around in random directions, drink a beer while waiting for them to get their bearings.

It's funny that they can sense a storm coming, but not the lawnmowers immanent arrival.
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1088. IKE
Quoting Levi32:
12z ECMWF still shows the problem with the upper low moving in tandem with 97L and not giving it any room. By 48 hours 97L is near western Cuba and the upper low is just to the west over the central gulf, bringing over 30 knots of southerly wind over the system. At 72 hours the situation is the same with the upper low nearing Texas and 97L just falls apart over the gulf and spreads out.

12z ECMWF 48-hour surface pressures (solid black contours) and 200mb winds (colored wind barbs):



Hard to argue against the ECMWF.

It never did much w/97L.
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1087. help4u
Joe Bastardi said no development in gulf.Levi nailed it in his comments.
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1086. leu2500
1061: Dr. Masters discussed this in a previous blog entry. He has a number of blog entries discussing different aspects of the oil.
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1084. Levi32
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Hi Levi!


Hey :)
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1081. Patrap
Fleas and Ticks are a much better indicator of a Storm coming.

When u see them Packing up and leaving the Dog..and calling a Cab..

One best get a move one.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
1080. xcool
SHIP 35K WOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
1079. Asta
RE: Xcool and Katrina;
It's bad enough that we will have the Media Hyped Hoop-De-Doo! 5 year Anniversary of Katrina on the 27th..
Lets not doomcast 97L into K when she'll be a Bonnie Lass...
S'il Vous Plait!



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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The future of 97L doesnt look too good.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 47 50 51 54 56 58
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 45 48 49 44 34 29
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 39 42 46 44 33 29

SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 15 17 13 20 14 19 13 16 17 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 5 -3 -2 -1 0 4 -1 1 -1 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 250 227 223 178 172 139 121 127 139 220 186 231 232
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.2 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 159 159 165 169 163 163 161 165 154 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 148 148 148 152 155 149 146 141 142 130 109
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 9 12
700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 59 57 49 51 44 49 48 54 52 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 10 10 10 8 8 5 5 2 1 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 38 38 41 16 6 -29 -39 -77 -53 -70 -18
200 MB DIV 56 58 6 5 -1 -25 2 15 18 8 -18 16 8
LAND (KM) 166 189 190 181 199 200 4 96 235 142 -27 -116 -240
LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.6 28.7 29.8 30.8 31.9
LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.5 73.6 74.7 75.8 78.1 80.6 83.2 85.7 87.9 89.9 91.3 92.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 41 74 78 70 62 3 15 21 32 45 28 25 0


keeps shear 15-20kts for the forecast period. Mean slow development at best.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
shear may never be favorable enough for 97L

this could just be another tease, but we are still way early in the season
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Quoting Levi32:
Good afternoon all.

Tropical Tidbit for Wednesday, July 21st, with Video

Hi Levi!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thanks cch. That's an official entry now for 2010. ANT MOUNDS sighted in South Florida. If we get enough reports clustered in one area we'll have some good data...then we wait to see if it verifies.


Ok to humor everyone (not that I go with the ant theory) We have had lots of rain this year, so ants yes, new mounds yes. Poison is in order, cuz I am tired of stepping on the little boogers and having them bite. Oh yes they are fire ants. With Katrina, yes there were ants. Reporting from SCentral MS. LOL! Have a good day.
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1074. Levi32
12z ECMWF still shows the problem with the upper low moving in tandem with 97L and not giving it any room. By 48 hours 97L is near western Cuba/Florida Keys and the upper low is just to the west over the central gulf, bringing over 30 knots of southerly wind over the system. At 72 hours the situation is the same with the upper low nearing Texas and 97L just falls apart over the gulf and spreads out.

12z ECMWF 48-hour surface pressures (solid black contours) and 200mb winds (colored wind barbs):

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Quoting xcool:
ECMWF....


TX LA


how accurate is that one?
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The main problem with using ants as predictors of tropical weather is that their behavior has also been used to predict heavy rains, earthquakes, and even volcanic eruptions. (My take, then: due to the strange ant behavior seen around my South Florida yard, I believe I can expect to see a temblor during the next heavy thunderstorm, followed by an erupting volcano that helps to generate a hurricane.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1070. Patrap
Quoting ho77yw00d:
This may be a stupid question but does anyone think that the oil spill affecting our waters (ocean) an what not could play a role in our eco system being disrupted which could cause more problems for us... such as storms, weather,and ect....?


Dont know bout us..but the Pelicans and other wildlife aint been to pleased about it.










"Wings and a Prayer," a mythical journey of Louisiana's endangered state bird, the brown pelican, is told in art and music.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128275
Quoting cchsweatherman:


I just checked where they lead to and they lead to several ant mounds around a large shrub on the corner of my house.


I suggest killing off any ant mounds close to your house before you get any kind of tropical weather. During Hurricane Erin back in 95 I had fire ants that were nested in a flower bed in my front yard move into the house through the front door due to the heavy rain and flooded yard. Didn't realize they were there because my carpet was a beige color and walked right into them near my front door bare foot. Never thought I'd get ate up by fire ants IN the house, learned a valuable lesson that day!
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Just been viewing some visible satellite imagery and it appears that the low level circulation is entering the SE Bahamas now. In addition, it would appear that convection continues to build to the north and east while dry air continues to impede the western region. Still no defined low level structure although the circulation is becoming somewhat better defined this afternoon. I've gotta agree with the NHC that we won't see this become a tropical depression today.
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Models are coming right a tad.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
This question might be stupid but can someone point out to me where the actual centre of 97L is?

Thanks.
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Humidity is unusually low here for the time of day 56% usually over 70% rain or shine.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
The future of 97L doesnt look too good.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 47 50 51 54 56 58
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 45 48 49 44 34 29
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 39 42 46 44 33 29

SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 15 17 13 20 14 19 13 16 17 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 5 -3 -2 -1 0 4 -1 1 -1 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 250 227 223 178 172 139 121 127 139 220 186 231 232
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.2 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 159 159 165 169 163 163 161 165 154 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 148 148 148 152 155 149 146 141 142 130 109
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 9 12
700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 59 57 49 51 44 49 48 54 52 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 10 10 10 8 8 5 5 2 1 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 38 38 41 16 6 -29 -39 -77 -53 -70 -18
200 MB DIV 56 58 6 5 -1 -25 2 15 18 8 -18 16 8
LAND (KM) 166 189 190 181 199 200 4 96 235 142 -27 -116 -240
LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.6 28.7 29.8 30.8 31.9
LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.5 73.6 74.7 75.8 78.1 80.6 83.2 85.7 87.9 89.9 91.3 92.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 41 74 78 70 62 3 15 21 32 45 28 25 0
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1063. bjdsrq
Quoting CapeObserver:


Going out to mow the lawn shortly. Will report back on my findings.


Planting my snickers bars around the lawn and will report back tomorrow....
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1062. scott39
Quoting scott39:
I dought they will eat crow--- it will make it to at least a TD!
I DOUBT i will learn to spell any better either! LOL
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6775

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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