97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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1162. Patrap
Looks like to me as well.

Thats a good obs
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
1161. scott39
Any thoughts on comment 1149 Patrap?
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Quoting twhcracker:


or it can mean someone dropped a cheezit cracker


hahahahahhaha
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Quoting Jeff9641:
West Palm Beach are seems more probable area for potential landfall with most of the activity to the north of the circulation. C and N FL could get a nice 2 to 4" rain on Friday and Friday Night.
When you say activity, do you mean heavy thunderstorm activity? Because convection being displaced to the north and east doesn't make a difference in regards to where it will make landfall. Asymmetrical storms are usually caused by higher upper level winds.
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1158. Patrap
Read bac and see.

This aint a drive Up order window.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
reporting from Broward county, no ant hills, mounds, or trails of any kind that I see.
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i am back anything new on 97L
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Since this is so popular this year to do:

I present 1st advisory on TD12, 2005:


and current TVCN modeling for 97L, 2010:



Luckily this time, there is a ULL in the way.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759
Quoting Becca36:

Those suckers made a home in my car after Irene in 1999. There I was driving down the road and...they all bit me at once. Imagine my surprise!


Not to mention that of the other drivers as you ran from ditch to ditch, slapping and cursing!
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1152. scott39
Quoting Levi32:


No the ULL doesn't really appear to be weakening. If it ever does it will likely be over the NW gulf. The models can have a tough time forecasting some of these upper lows. They completely messed up the one that was near TD #2, but they are in good agreement on this one and its track is pretty clear-cut because of the big deep-layer ridge over the southern US, which will be steering it WSW, then west, and then WNW into the Texas area.
thanks
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Patrap have you heard anything about boom removal in LA yet?
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1149. scott39
Quoting Patrap:
ULL is definitely farther NNW of 97L than at 3am this morning! IMO
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Quoting Becca36:

Those suckers made a home in my car after Irene in 1999. There I was driving down the road and...they all bit me at once. Imagine my surprise!


Yikes, and you managed to pull over without haveing an accident!?
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Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF tracks the upper level low to the southwest while the GFS tracks it to the west and has it just east of Florida in 24 hours.



Surely not moving SW at the moment.
Member Since: January 30, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 3259
Quoting StormW:


Look it here man...the steering layers forecast, current steering, and visible satellite loop imagery of the steering flow DOES NOT SUPPORT THE GFDL AND HWRF


StormW are u a Sassy~Caster know. LOL Just had to say it.
sheri
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Hey Viking, yes I'm in P'cola.....I pretty much just lurk unless I find something interesting to add or have a question.
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Drakoen posted this a while ago... almost 1010mb and already had winds of 34mp sustained. 30 mph right now...

Thanks for posting....
Link
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Models are coming right a tad.


Not sure where you're seeing that. With the exception of the CLP5--which has been showing the system recurving out to sea the last few runs--and both the GFDL and the HWRF--which don't look to be initialized correctly--the 18z model consensus has the tracks all shifted left a bit from the previous run. In fact, with the exception of the CLP5 and GFDL, none of the 18z runs show Bonnie-to-be entering Florida anywhere north of Broward county.
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1140. Drakoen
Quoting ElConando:


the GIV plane?


Yes
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1139. Levi32
Quoting scott39:
Does ULL show any signs of weakening now on the water vapor image? How reliable have maps been in the past with forecasting a ULLSs progress that far out? Im trying to learn-- thanks


No the ULL doesn't really appear to be weakening. If it ever does it will likely be over the NW gulf. The models can have a tough time forecasting some of these upper lows. They completely messed up the one that was near TD #2, but they are in good agreement on this one and its track is pretty clear-cut because of the big deep-layer ridge over the southern US, which will be steering it WSW, then west, and then WNW into the Texas area.
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Quoting Patrap:
K struck the Gulf Coast the 29th.

And 5 years isnt along time post calamity for many.

So we can Bally Hoo our Losses, some very personal in our own way.




Amen to that!
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Quoting StormW:
Still like the TVCC/TVCN track on the 18Z DYNAMIC GUIDANCE





Just a lurker here...but just had to comment that those two paths go directly through my home area. You have a good reputation on the boards and I trust in your analysis, but I'm still crossing my fingers it does not go by me...
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1136. divdog
Quoting Jeff9641:


No need to get sassy but the movement appears to be toward Palm Beach area. Anyway who cares if I'm right I'm right most of the weather on a track like that would favor C and N FL because of the ULL tugging on it the whole time.
and if your wrong your wrong... present a better case if you are going to dispute the claims of one of the most respected people on this blog
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Im out.



Those are outflow boundaries spitting out?
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1134. Becca36
Quoting 69Viking:


I suggest killing off any ant mounds close to your house before you get any kind of tropical weather. During Hurricane Erin back in 95 I had fire ants that were nested in a flower bed in my front yard move into the house through the front door due to the heavy rain and flooded yard. Didn't realize they were there because my carpet was a beige color and walked right into them near my front door bare foot. Never thought I'd get ate up by fire ants IN the house, learned a valuable lesson that day!

Those suckers made a home in my car after Irene in 1999. There I was driving down the road and...they all bit me at once. Imagine my surprise!
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1133. xcool
2010-Jul-21 00:00 N 20°12' W 073°24' 080 35K 1014.3 10.8 4.0 28.3 24.2 29.0 SHIP
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1132. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting 69Viking:


It's July 21st in my part of the world.


Quoting 69Viking:


It's July 21st in my part of the world.



HA. Now that was funny!!!!
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1130. scott39
Quoting Drakoen:
The ECMWF tracks the upper level low to the southwest while the GFS tracks it to the west and has it just east of Florida in 24 hours.

It "LOOKS" like on water vaper that ULL is taking a jog to the WNW. IMO
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This will be the station to watch for pressure..
When it get to 1010 in a couple hours..
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/78114.html
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Quoting Jebekarue:
Just read this article in the Pensacola paper at pnj.com
"Florida officials said today that supplemental boom will be removed from Panhandle waters in the next three to four days in light of a potential tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico."


“During a tropical storm boom can cause additional damage to the natural resources that we are trying to protect from oil spill impacts,” DEP Secretary Michael W. Sole said in a press release. “Given the current oil spill trajectories and the tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico, we think this is the best decision for Florida’s communities.”
Someone is paying attention


Are you in the Pensacola area? I'm about 40 miles East in Fort Walton Beach.
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1127. IKE
Here's the 12Z ECMWF...
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Quoting xcool:
Tazmanian PAGE 22 .



did not see any thing on page 22
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1125. Drakoen
The ECMWF tracks the upper level low to the southwest while the GFS tracks it to the west and has it just east of Florida in 24 hours.

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Im out.

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Product: NOAA Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KWBC)
Transmitted: 21st day of the month at 18:37Z
Aircraft: Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) (Reg. Num. N49RF)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 02

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 18Z on the 21st day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 250mb
Coordinates: 29.0N 77.0W
Location: 273 miles (439 km) to the N (4°) from Nassau, Bahamas.
Marsden Square: 080 (About)

Onward she goes.. go info within the next few hours! G-IV
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1121. Drakoen
Quoting 69Viking:


It's July 21st in my part of the world.


lol
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We will see an invest soon in the bay of campeche
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1118. Patrap
Quoting 69Viking:


It's July 21st in my part of the world.


OMG..


LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Way early in the season?

Its July 20th.



It's July 21st in my part of the world.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
The future of 97L doesnt look too good.

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 47 50 51 54 56 58
V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 45 45 48 49 44 34 29
V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 34 37 39 42 46 44 33 29

SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 15 17 13 20 14 19 13 16 17 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 3 5 -3 -2 -1 0 4 -1 1 -1 1 -1
SHEAR DIR 250 227 223 178 172 139 121 127 139 220 186 231 232
SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.8 29.2 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 159 159 165 169 163 163 161 165 154 130
ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 148 148 148 152 155 149 146 141 142 130 109
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.7
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 9 12
700-500 MB RH 64 63 60 59 57 49 51 44 49 48 54 52 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 10 10 10 8 8 5 5 2 1 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 44 38 38 41 16 6 -29 -39 -77 -53 -70 -18
200 MB DIV 56 58 6 5 -1 -25 2 15 18 8 -18 16 8
LAND (KM) 166 189 190 181 199 200 4 96 235 142 -27 -116 -240
LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.6 21.9 22.4 22.9 24.0 25.2 26.4 27.6 28.7 29.8 30.8 31.9
LONG(DEG W) 71.4 72.5 73.6 74.7 75.8 78.1 80.6 83.2 85.7 87.9 89.9 91.3 92.5
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 41 74 78 70 62 3 15 21 32 45 28 25 0


yet Ships still brings it to a strong tropical storm despite the shear
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7823
1114. RickWPB
Levi,

Excellent presentation today! I hope you're right with your forecast in that 97L will continue to struggle.
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1113. xcool
Tazmanian PAGE 22 .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Drakoen:
Looks like the NOAA plane is enroute to survey the area


the GIV plane?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3759

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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