97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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1206. Asta 7:21 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
re:1138. BiloxiIsle
Here's one forecast that is easy-
Aug. Fri 27th-through Sun the 29th
The media will swarm like red fire ants again around New Orleans and the MS Gulf Coast

97L looks more organized IMHO

I thought its chances looked better this morning with the moist air starting to wrap around the ULL and the western portion of dry air shrinking...but evidently, I was wrong since everyone who knows anything thinks its chances are worsening.
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1208. 7544
bottom line is 97l getting better organized at this hour or not everyone seems to be talking in circles here
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I live in broward county and the only thing IMO that 97l will do is wave to us on the way by I do not see orginization before landfall..
the models are useless unless there is a established COC...
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1206. Asta
re:1138. BiloxiIsle
Here's one forecast that is easy-
Aug. Fri 27th-through Sun the 29th
The media will swarm like red fire ants again around New Orleans and the MS Gulf Coast

97L looks more organized IMHO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/rb-l.jpg
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1205. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Him or me? LOL
I have read that a lot of people like the ECMWF model....Why is this particular model so well liked?
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1203. Patrap
Womp, wahhhhhhhhhhhh...








Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
1202. java162
Link

has anyone seen the cmc model forecast... lol..
if ths materializes we will be well on our way to 22 storms (how do you upload images on here?)
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Quoting smmcdavid:
I don't see how comparing tracks of different storms matters at all. There is so much that has to be taken into consideration... so much that affects the track. Ten storms could start in the same location and make landfall in ten different locations, all at different intensity levels. Seriously?!


Well, to be honest there are some similarities between 97L and the other, more famous system...the ridge building into the SE for one...
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1199. Levi32
Quoting RickWPB:
Levi,

Excellent presentation today! I hope you're right with your forecast in that 97L will continue to struggle.


Thanks, me too, lol.
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Quoting IKE:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...WATCHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA...

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED RATHER BREEZY EAST WIND FLOW IN THE SAL AIRMASS...AND
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A RENEGADE TSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE IN
THE SHORT TERM.

THEN EYES TURN TO WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA. NHC HAS LESSENED THE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE TREND THAT HAS BEEN SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY. IT`S
STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS WAVE AS WELL. THE GFS NO LONGER
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW...AND IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE 21.00Z ECWMF RUN
WITH JUST A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT YET AVAILABLE...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
IT SHOWS ANYTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN WAVE. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...NAM IS ON THE "WON`T DEVELOP" BANDWAGON AS WELL.
GIVEN ALL
OF THIS...HAVE KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
NEIGHBORING WFO`S...SHOWING JUST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FRI AND BEYOND.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND NHC GIVES A 50%
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THUS...THIS OF
COURSE NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AND THE FORECAST
WOULD NEED TO BE CHANGED DRASTICALLY SHOULD THIS WAVE IN FACT
DEVELOP. SO ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE TRENDING MORE OPTIMISTICALLY...ALL
NEED TO STAY TUNED.

HPC RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN
INCH...AND HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS DUE TO THE EXPECTED FAST
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...UPPER LEVELS DO NOT LOOK
OPTIMAL...WITH EVEN SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN THE GFS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS THOUGH IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE.


So they think this will be nothing.....
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Quoting germemiguel:
We will see an invest soon in the bay of campeche


I keep watching that as well. Amazing how much activity in the GOM, Carribean, and Atlantic.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
i have been telling everyone all along that this could very well be the possible track if 97L develops i just dont believe we will have a hurricane conditions are not there for it


Conditions are not there for it to become a hurricane? What? Shear isnt that bad and if it calmed down a little bit we could easily see a hurricane. If 97L get's it's act together.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
I don't see how comparing tracks of different storms matters at all. There is so much that has to be taken into consideration... so much that affects the track. Ten storms could start in the same location and make landfall in ten different locations, all at different intensity levels. Seriously?!
That seems to make common sense to me as well, but I've basically been told that I have no idea what I'm talking about.......imo, folks just like to look at past storms in any way, especially the biggies.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5618
1194. Levi32
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Quoting Levi32:


No the ULL doesn't really appear to be weakening. If it ever does it will likely be over the NW gulf. The models can have a tough time forecasting some of these upper lows. They completely messed up the one that was near TD #2, but they are in good agreement on this one and its track is pretty clear-cut because of the big deep-layer ridge over the southern US, which will be steering it WSW, then west, and then WNW into the Texas area.

What into TX? 97L or something else? Where in TX?


I was talking about the upper low, but 97L or what's left of it may end up in Texas as well right behind it. I wouldn't be concerned about it, as it is unlikely to be any significant threat to the gulf coast. It should be watched for a possible try at winding up in the western gulf, but I doubt it will be anything but a potential rain-maker for you guys.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


It's just my opinion, take it for what it is.


I know that, and I will. Just seeking truth...or at least a consensus. That's all... :-)
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1192. Patrap
18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
1191. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

...DANGEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES...
...WATCHING STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA...

.DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
A CONTINUED RATHER BREEZY EAST WIND FLOW IN THE SAL AIRMASS...AND
JUST A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. A RENEGADE TSTORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT MAINLY OVER THE GULF WATERS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO NOTE IN
THE SHORT TERM.

THEN EYES TURN TO WHAT WILL OCCUR WITH REGARDS TO THE STRONG
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR HISPANIOLA. NHC HAS LESSENED THE CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT SINCE THIS MORNING...AND THIS IS NO SURPRISE GIVEN THE
CONVECTIVE TREND THAT HAS BEEN SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY. IT`S
STRUGGLING WITH DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE
LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THIS WAVE AS WELL. THE GFS NO LONGER
SHOWS A CLOSED LOW...AND IS NOW IN LINE WITH THE 21.00Z ECWMF RUN
WITH JUST A TROPICAL WAVE PASSING QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT YET AVAILABLE...BUT WOULD BE SURPRISED IF
IT SHOWS ANYTHING MORE THAN AN OPEN WAVE. FOR WHAT IT`S
WORTH...NAM IS ON THE "WON`T DEVELOP" BANDWAGON AS WELL.
GIVEN ALL
OF THIS...HAVE KEPT CONTINUITY WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND
NEIGHBORING WFO`S...SHOWING JUST AN OPEN WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA FRI AND BEYOND.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS STILL POSSIBLE...AND NHC GIVES A 50%
CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HRS. THUS...THIS OF
COURSE NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...AND THE FORECAST
WOULD NEED TO BE CHANGED DRASTICALLY SHOULD THIS WAVE IN FACT
DEVELOP. SO ALTHOUGH THINGS ARE TRENDING MORE OPTIMISTICALLY...ALL
NEED TO STAY TUNED.

HPC RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY AROUND A HALF AN
INCH...AND HARD TO ARGUE WITH THIS DUE TO THE EXPECTED FAST
MOVEMENT ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO...UPPER LEVELS DO NOT LOOK
OPTIMAL...WITH EVEN SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN THE GFS THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE THE MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
HEAVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS THOUGH IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS
THE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE.
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Quoting HurricaneNewbie:
Hey Floodman, My hero just from the avatar


Him or me? LOL
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Quoting Drakoen:


Upper level low is still giving it a hard time. The system is asymmetric convectively. The NOAA plane should give us an idea of how dry the air is and as well as the speed and direction of the upper level flow west of the system.
do you still think it will develop by tomorrow ???? i really dont think so i am thinking friday
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Quoting Neapolitan:


But even the 18z BAMM shows a central/southern Dade path...and guidance doesn't even show that far north, at least for now. Much remains to be seen, of course, but I can't see this making a beeline anywhere north of Dade or Monroe.


It's just my opinion, take it for what it is.
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1187. Levi32
Quoting Funkadelic:
Hey Levi, I notice that the nogaps and CMC are developing what appears to be a cape verde system in around 84 hours. What is your take on this and the possible steering? Thanks a ton! Love your tropical tidbits btw, I actually made my wife sit down and watch it:)


Lol, well thank you.

The NOGAPS and CMC seems to be showing the tropical wave currently south of the Cape Verde Islands slowing down and crawling westward in the eastern Atlantic, and eventually showing the signs of development that you mentioned in 4 days. It's certainly possible considering how strong these waves are getting, but it will take some doing. I'll be keeping an eye on it. Steering would take it west or WNW across the central-eastern Atlantic, in other words no early recurvature, but beyond that is too far out to say at this point.
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I don't see how comparing tracks of different storms matters at all. There is so much that has to be taken into consideration... so much that affects the track. Ten storms could start in the same location and make landfall in ten different locations, all at different intensity levels. Seriously?!
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:

ULL is heading W to WNW at the moment.



Although, more WNW IMO.
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1184. scott39
The ULL has to be moving away from 97L or she wouldnt be improving on current Sat--- right?
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center of 97L looks to be at 21.3N and 71.5 W in my opinion and with the last few frames the indications are that its starting to establish a southwest inflow into the center
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Quoting Levi32:


No the ULL doesn't really appear to be weakening. If it ever does it will likely be over the NW gulf. The models can have a tough time forecasting some of these upper lows. They completely messed up the one that was near TD #2, but they are in good agreement on this one and its track is pretty clear-cut because of the big deep-layer ridge over the southern US, which will be steering it WSW, then west, and then WNW into the Texas area.

What into TX? 97L or something else? Where in TX?
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1181. ncstorm
Quoting divdog:
and if your wrong your wrong... present a better case if you are going to dispute the claims of one of the most respected people on this blog


Some of yall act like StormW analysis cant be questioned..I find it unprofessional that Dr.Masters choose someone to be a feature blogger and everytime someone questions his analysis, he gets irritated and argues through the blog..I have never seen Weather456 or Levi get upset with the bloggers when they dispute their analysis..If you dont want your analysis to be contested, then dont get on the blog and expect it to be set in stone..
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Quoting Patrap:
Read bac and see.

This aint a drive Up order window.

rofl
97L has gone from red to orange.
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


I said a TAD and the BAMMS did move right a TAD. Broward to Palm Beach line has been my thinking all along, still is.


But even the 18z BAMM shows a central/southern Dade path...and guidance doesn't even show that far north, at least for now. Much remains to be seen, of course, but I can't see this making a beeline anywhere north of Dade or Monroe.
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1178. leo305
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
ULL is heading W to WNW at the moment.


is that a good thing or a bad thing for 97L
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
1177. Drakoen
Quoting Seflhurricane:
drak it appears to me that 97L is developing a good circulation near the turks and caicos on the visible i see its starting to pull in moisture from the south west ???? could that be any indications that is starting to come back


Upper level low is still giving it a hard time. The system is asymmetric convectively. The NOAA plane should give us an idea of how dry the air is and as well as the speed and direction of the upper level flow west of the system.
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Hey Floodman, My hero just from the avatar
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Quoting DestinJeff:
and then look what a later advisory suggested in 2005:


compared to 97L TVCN in 2010:




and we go on and on with the rest of the stroy
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1174. scott39
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
ULL is heading W to WNW at the moment.
I concur
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ULL is heading W to WNW at the moment.
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1172. Patrap
Quoting Becca36:

Lucky for me I was right by a gas station and somehow managed to stay calm and I think the only thing the attendant had was a can of WD-40...well, it kills fire ants if you ever wondered about that.


Shucks a can o WD-40 and a Lighter can keep a BP exec at Bay if ya Point it right
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866
Quoting DestinJeff:
Since this is so popular this year to do:

I present 1st advisory on TD12, 2005:


and current TVCN modeling for 97L, 2010:


Oh crap and the water temps are hotter now than in aug of that year
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Quoting DestinJeff:
and then look what a later advisory suggested in 2005:


compared to 97L TVCN in 2010:
i have been telling everyone all along that this could very well be the possible track if 97L develops i just dont believe we will have a hurricane conditions are not there for it
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


how accurate is that one?


That one is usually the best. And has been showing a TX hit by whatever thats gonna be for about a week now. Today the first day the CMC came in line with it. So hopefully its correct again and nothing will come from it.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
1168. Becca36
Quoting 69Viking:


Yikes, and you managed to pull over without haveing an accident!?
Quoting Floodman:


Not to mention that of the other drivers as you ran from ditch to ditch, slapping and cursing!

Lucky for me I was right by a gas station and somehow managed to stay calm and I think the only thing the attendant had was a can of WD-40...well, it kills fire ants if you ever wondered about that.
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Quoting Drakoen:


lol
drak it appears to me that 97L is developing a good circulation near the turks and caicos on the visible i see its starting to pull in moisture from the south west ???? could that be any indications that is starting to come back
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1165. Asta
Link
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Not sure where you're seeing that. With the exception of the CLP5--which has been showing the system recurving out to see the last few runs--and both the GFDL and the HWRF--which don't look to be initialized correctly--the 18z model consensus has the tracks all shifted left a bit from the previous run. In fact, with the exception of the CLP5 and GFDL, none of the 18z runs show Bonnie-to-be entering Florida anywhere north of Broward county.


I said a TAD and the BAMMS did move right a TAD. Broward to Palm Beach line has been my thinking all along, still is.
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1162. Patrap
Looks like to me as well.

Thats a good obs
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128866

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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