97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting all4hurricanes:

Seriously!!!!! Why not Cuba they're right next to this thing


b/c it is moving to the WNW- away from Cuba.
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4361. cg2916
Quoting weatherman12345:

do you think this begin rapid intesification before3 landfall


Nope, too much stuff against it. I can bet a raw platter of crow that this will not be another Katrina.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
4360. 7544
so fla will be in the cone bigtime from the nhc
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Recon should find TS Bonnie later today.
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954...I think you are correct in predicting that a right turn in model guidance is coming.

The data for the latest models were posted at 2am, but were collect much earlier, probably before or right as the organization push was occurring.

The next set of updates for 8am will be slightly right, with the possibility of a more right turn at 2pm if intensification continues.

Quoting 954FtLCane:
correct me if i'm wrong but most of the westerly pointing models were taking into account a weak system.. one not being pulled poleward.... would this mean that a strengthening system would change the models and point them more wnw to nw into s fla?
Not an sfla-upcaster here just trying to learn thats all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al032010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007221236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Sorry 98L ... 97L beat you to it.. but we can call you Colin, how bout that? Beside you're a larger system, Colin fits your criteria. Bonnie heads to Florida yet again for the second time.
(Bonnie hit FL in 2004)


lol
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4354. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
!!!!!
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.



Seriously!!!!! Why not Cuba they're right next to this thing
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Through the straits?
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4351. tkeith
Quoting Royallypalmbeaches:
Morning all .TKeith on post 4204 could you give me the link for the site page to that WV imagery. Thanks
open the link, then add to favoreites...I think that will work.
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Wunderground better check, check and recheck your servers. Tropical system heading for Florida means ------ Hyper-Blog!
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4349. 7544
not 36 hours tho more like the old 24 hour warning so fla gets caught offgaurd again now the rush will be on here comes the madness lol but the 100 % should open everyones eyes it could be 60mph for so fla
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
What a difference a day makes.

Im actually impressed.


It doesn't look like the roadkill it was 24hrs ago, it looks like a TS.
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4347. gator23
Quoting Goldenblack:
I agree, but until we have evidence of such...and out of respect, lets not say the K word too much?


no! different set up, K was moving west and formed closer.
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Quoting est1986:


Maybe I am right?!


Quoting yourself... now that's pathetic. lol
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Not trying to wishcast, scare people, as conditions are totally different but the last time a storm formed where TD3/Bonnie formed was Katrina. Won't be another Katrina though, conditions are totally different.
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Anyone want to a guess/comment on when/where the TS warnings will go up for Florida? I am thinking East Coast up to Melbourne and southern FL including the Keys and SW Fl up to Venice......
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Does anyone think that TD3 will likely become a TS?

Also, is the shifting track north true? I have not seen the latest model runs.
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Tropical Storm Bonnie 2004.

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Quoting Jeff9641:


It's wrong man the center reformed last night about 75 miles nne.


I cannot find anything to support those pictures being wrong. Models and weather match, unless the whole system is wrong...models/weather/radar.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
Not much change to 98L. It moved .7W and .2N

AL, 98, 2010072212, , BEST, 0, 207N, 949W, 25, 1008, DB
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al032010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007221236
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4335. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
JCM stop with the fake info please we try to be accurate and follow NHC NAVY guidance here you defeat that purpose your not that stupid are you
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Looking like it could go straight to Boonie, does it not extreme?

Quoting extreme236:
It's important to remember that anything on the ATCF is subject to change at the advisory time. It could say TD 3 and we could actually get Bonnie. All depends on the latest data the NHC gets.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
We've got our water and perishable foods awaiting future Bonnie. Tomorrow night I'll likely be on here most of the night unless power goes out.

Good thing you're prepared, since you are one of the most respected bloggers.
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Quoting texascoastres:
MiamiH09 can you please post the link to the site that gives the model tracks with the timeframe dots on it. Thanks
As soon as I get on my main computer in a couple of minutes I'll give you them.
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4331. gator23
Quoting 954FtLCane:
correct me if i'm wrong but most of the westerly pointing models were taking into account a weak system.. one not being pulled poleward.... would this mean that a strengthening system would change the models and point them more wnw to nw into s fla?
Not an sfla-upcaster here just trying to learn thats all

yes you will be in a tropical storm warning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
phill ferro from wsve just it;ll be a SFl evennt ya every one is thinkin the same thing
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4329. est1986
Quoting est1986:
It will be TS Bonnie by noon today. Bet me!


Maybe I am right?!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I agree, but until we have evidence of such...and out of respect, lets not say the K word too much?

Quoting Waltanater:
Told ya these storms form quickly! Could be looking at Katrina Part II, or her sister, Bonnie! I know there are other factors, but this storm does have a similar starting point and projected path, at least at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Sorry 98L ... 97L beat you to it.. but we can call you Colin, how bout that? Beside you're a larger system, Colin fits your criteria. Bonnie heads to Florida yet again for the second time.
(Bonnie hit FL in 2004)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's important to remember that anything on the ATCF is subject to change at the advisory time. It could say TD 3 and we could actually get Bonnie. All depends on the latest data the NHC gets.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Storm,

Do you think that it will be just a wave or depression?
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The gospel aka ECMWF never developed TD3/Bonnie..
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Storm got serious about 11pm last night, I watched it coming together until about 1am (EDT) before I went to bed...really didn't expect this SC2007

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
What a difference a day makes.

Im actually impressed.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
!!!!!
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.



O_O Hallelujah!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4321. scott39
Quoting Waltanater:
Told ya these storms form quickly! Could be looking at Katrina Part II, or her sister, Bonnie! I know there are other factors, but this storm does have a similar starting point and projected path, at least at this time.
Shush yo mouth!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
MiamiH09 can you please post the link to the site that gives the model tracks with the timeframe dots on it. Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
correct me if i'm wrong but most of the westerly pointing models were taking into account a weak system.. one not being pulled poleward.... would this mean that a strengthening system would change the models and point them more wnw to nw into s fla?
Not an sfla-upcaster here just trying to learn thats all
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Personally, I think 97L will jump straight to Bonnie. Surface obs have been showing 39+ mph winds in the Grand Turks.

I think so too, because it is so close to landfall.
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Quoting coffeecrusader:
Once we have a TD or TS, the next set of model runs should give us a better idea where Bonny will be going. I am predicting a shift back to the right with a stronger storm. Any thoughts?
Small shift towards the right, nothing major.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
What a difference a day makes.

Im actually impressed.



TD3/Bonnie looks pretty good.. same with 98L.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Told ya these storms form quickly! Could be looking at Katrina Part II, or her sister, Bonnie! I know there are other factors, but this storm does have a similar starting point and projected path, at least at this time.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

they look goo dnow. Last I checked Jupiter is in South Florida.


That's debatable. We typically don't get much from a system all they way down in Miami / Keys.
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One feature I would like to see on this site is a predicted tropical wave time. I've noticed the waves come of off the coast of africa peridically. and once a wave is sighted it moves fairly predictably westward by prevailing + steering winds. We still don't have exact knowledge of whether it will develop or where it will make landfall, but it would be helpfull for planning to know for example(I.E. a well developed wave will cross -80Lon on Jul 21-23) a week or so in advance. It may not be a hurricane, but you wouldn't want to fly there to fish those days anyway.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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