97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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look SW of the CV Islands.

Link

Member Since: August 23, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1590
1361. xcool
WIND SHEAR 20K
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1359. IKE
From what I see, now that they have adjusted the floater, this may run into northern Cuba...by tomorrow morning unless it changes course....
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Quoting portcharlotte:
I completely agree...get these kids off the blog...they are just trying to contradict everything!





Some of us kids don't try to contradict everything but merely try and show our opinions.
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Quoting hydrus:
It is going to pulse and fluctuate in strength and size as long as it keeps interacting with the upper low.


Yes!!!
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1354. xcool
Wind Gust: 42.0mph
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Patrap:

#1300


Indeed..a good swim is always refreshing..Like a Cold FRESCA



Haven't had one of those in a while.
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That was funny. Too bad it had to come off!
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Quoting CJ5:
This is bad information and not reliable for anything other than one man's OPINION.



That's why this guy made the list for most of us...along with all of his other handles
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Quoting btwntx08:
new update shear decreasing in the bahamas
going through rough shear now but looks like less ahead
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Quoting CJ5:
This is bad information and not reliable for anything other than one man's OPINION.



You are correct. These type of comments should be removed, they are at best foolish and at worst dangerous.
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1345. Patrap
Floater - Visible Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
I completely agree...get these kids off the blog...they are just trying to contradict everything!



Quoting Levi32:


Yeah....that's what happens. Eventually the blog traffic will become so heavy that the admin will have to create conditions for who can post on here, which we all have discussed before with the suggestions of only paid members or stuff like that.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



mb is sure droping off fast


i sure hop 97L is not pulling a fast one on us


me too.
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Frankly I have lost count. First significant one that sticks in my memory was David 1979, I was living on Lee Stocking Island in the Exumas. During it I drove around on a golf cart wearing a wetsuit jacket (seen in my avatar photo) and a face mask.

1985 Eye passage of Kate here on Provo. More recently it was Hanna/Ike, with a Cat 1 returning as tropical storm, and then the outskirts of Cat 3... all in a period of 7 days.


What price, paradise, eh brother?
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1340. xcool
Turks and Caicos


From ENE at 32mph
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
sorry my bad its KM
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Quoting IKE:


Yeah...it's in 30 knots of shear...




that wind shear map may be a little off
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<
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Still not happening with 97L yet.....was watching multiple Twist.....the old twist has taken charge again it appears.....so there is really only one spin....at 21.7N 71.7W it just cannot wrap due to the Shear....and dry air....but, with that...it looks somewhat better than it did from 8am this morning Convection wise.
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1335. hydrus
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Frankly I have lost count. First significant one that sticks in my memory was David 1979, I was living on Lee Stocking Island in the Exumas. During it I drove around on a golf cart wearing a wetsuit jacket (seen in my avatar photo) and a face mask.

1985 Eye passage of Kate here on Provo. More recently it was Hanna/Ike, with a Cat 1 returning as tropical storm, and then the outskirts of Cat 3... all in a period of 7 days.
You must really like it there. You have been there for decades!
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Pine Cay weather station
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1333. CJ5
This is bad information and not reliable for anything other than one man's OPINION.

Quoting hurrkat05:
this low will not develop like is aid yesterday it has to many things against...shear is its #1 enemy..so all you people n he gulfcoast can rest easy the most you are going to get out of this is some much needed rain..i said bonnie will not form until at least august 10...this shear and dry air wil rule the tropics for the next 2 weeks..so people no need to get all ecited about something this weekend regardless of what the models say...the models have been out shopping on this one...
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1331. hydrus
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah....that's what happens. Eventually the blog traffic will become so heavy that the admin will have to create conditions for who can post on here, which we all have discussed before with the suggestions of only paid members or stuff like that.
............................................................97L does not look organized at the moment. It does look like a rough day to sail out there.
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Quoting hydrus:
C.R.S. When did you experience your last full blown hurricane and how many have you been through total? I ask this because you live in the Bahamas...I think..:)


Frankly I have lost count. First significant one that sticks in my memory was David 1979, I was living on Lee Stocking Island in the Exumas. During it I drove around on a golf cart wearing a wetsuit jacket (seen in my avatar photo) and a face mask.

1985 Eye passage of Kate here on Provo. More recently it was Hanna/Ike, with a Cat 1 returning as tropical storm, and then the outskirts of Cat 3... all in a period of 7 days.
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1329. IKE
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I see it speeding up too. If you zoom out and look at this visible animation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/flash-vis.html

And also click on the HDW-high wind vectors check box in the animation. The fact that its moving faster to the WNW is not good for development, its about to head into upper westerlies on the south side of the upper low, that could make shear even worse.


Yeah...it's in 30 knots of shear...

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1328. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:
pressure down to 1009mb at Pine Cay
can i get a link to see that also
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I'm not wishing anything on anyone. I've been thorough a Cat 4/Borderline Cat 5, and it's not fun. Having said that, you can never rule out anything in the tropics until it has completely fallen apart, and even then, those waves will sometimes throw some surprises at you. I think this has the potential to develop into Bonnie, but the next 24 hours will be telling as to whether it can overcome some of the obstacles in its way.

Quoting hurrkat05:
this low will not develop like is aid yesterday it has to many things against...shear is its #1 enemy..so all you people n he gulfcoast can rest easy the most you are going to get out of this is some much needed rain..i said bonnie will not form until at least august 10...this shear and dry air wil rule the tropics for the next 2 weeks..so people no need to get all ecited about something this weekend regardless of what the models say...the models have been out shopping on this one...
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1324. Patrap
NOAA 49 on the Big Orbit around 97L this afternoon

Scheduled Actual/Estimated
Departure 01:44PM EDT 01:24PM EDT
Arrival 09:59PM EDT 04:40PM EDT
Speed Mach .77 394 kts
Altitude 41000 feet 45000 feet (track log & graph)
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
There's a few flare ups developing convection wise.
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1321. xcool
ULL MOVE FAST WOW
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Jedkins01:


There are just too many dang people on here honestly haha, many of which are loco, it has gotten out of hand for sure, I wish it was like the good old blog days.


School starts in a few weeks
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
Quoting Hurricanes101:
pressure down to 1009mb at Pine Cay



mb is sure droping off fast


i sure hop 97L is not pulling a fast one on us
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
What is the shear forecast to be in the eastern Gulf 4-5-6 days out when this system is forecast to be there?

Yes, I know that's probably been answered multiple times, but just too lazy to wade back through hundreds of comments to find a post by someone knowledgeable.


Model COllection and Observed Shear

Ummm, you might want to add this to your favorties, dude
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Thanks all for answering my question....I wish that people would put out what they really think instead of just blurting out things for the fun of it....it confuses me...BUT I know that this is just a blog and I can go to the nhc for facts....but I like this place because a lot of time I get correct info ahead of time... :) Thanks everyone!!
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Quoting connie1976:
is the thing weakening or strengthening? too many conflicting comments....I'm confused!! lol thanks all!


It's weakening and strengthening at the same time.... Jeez, pay attention!!
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pressure down to 1009mb at Pine Cay
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
pressure at Pine Cay is now 29.81 inches or 1009.3mbs


decent.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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