97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Struggling?

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wfyweather:


doesn't look much if any weaker to me... maybe your seeing something im not?


Like I said, probably doesn't mean much.
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Quoting StormW:


I think you're right! Good to see you. Good luck on your new addition!
hey storm have you seen any observations from the north coast of hispaniola or Ne Cuba for westerly winds , i cant find any observation in these areas
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ULL looks to also becoming a little weaker on the 200 mb vort.

3 hours ago, look at the deep reds.


Now


Probably doesn't mean much, but I thought it was slightly interesting.


If it continues it could be significant. Something to keep tabs on 12 hrs down the road.
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Quoting xcool:
97L definitely getting BETTER...



i send 97L the docer bill for $80 it has 30 days too pay up


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Quoting CybrTeddy:
ULL looks to also becoming a little weaker on the 200 mb vort.

3 hours ago, look at the deep reds.


Now


Every invest has it's days, today was 97L ;)
Tomorrow, things will be interesting, but I'm working so I won't be on as much as I was on today.
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I know Viking... ;-)

And no problem unf.
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Broad circulation has formed with the enter about over the T&C not quite closed yet on the SW side but close..look at the VIS loop..the low level cloud over the Bahamas are going SSW over the DR NNE
97L is pulling in energy from the eastern half again all the way back from the windwards..
Won't be long...
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1554. xcool
97L definitely getting BETTER...
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ULL looks to also becoming a little weaker on the 200 mb vort.

3 hours ago, look at the deep reds.


Now


Probably doesn't mean much, but I thought it was slightly interesting.


doesn't look much if any weaker to me... maybe your seeing something im not?
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1551. Patrap
Quoting Floodman:


Another problem with models and somewhat disorganized features...erroneous initialization points resulting in...GIGO


Thats a false assumption always.

A Algorithm runs that tracks the Overall envelope embedded in the Easterlies..

The CoC is always known at the beginning of a Given run to best estimate.

One can figure the Center easily.

And with Human Eyes and the algorithm a best est is made.

Thats not a GIGO scenario as thats a analog term..


And we aint Flying Apollo with these Puters
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Thaale:

There's always Mount Trashmore.


I remember seeing it for the first time when I was 5 and I was like. "WTH I thought there were no mountains in Florida!!!."
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1549. unf97
Quoting smmcdavid:
unf... maybe you should try asking Storm questions on HIS blog. Just a thought. I've seen you post this several times and I think he is just missing it. I think he tries to answer all the questions on his blog though. ;-)


I read Storm's blog often since I became a member of WU a couple of years ago. I just have become so accustomed of asking him questions here on Dr. Masters' blog. I forget that when it is busy on this blog here like right now with systems to follow like with 97L out there to ask questions on Storm's blog.

Thanks for reminding me of that. When it is busy, I definitely will make more attempts to get Storm questions on his blog.
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Quoting smmcdavid:
Just trying to be helpful Viking... sometimes posts get missed in all this chaos.


And I'm just messing with you!
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llc is now under some new covection...in lamens:we're watching tropical cyclogenisis and should have a td tonight or tomorrow if sheer continues to relax as the ULL moves WSW..
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1546. scott39
Quoting Floodman:


Another problem with models and somewhat disorganized features...erroneous initialization points resulting in...GIGO
Do you think the ULL will be effecting 97L in the GOM?
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1545. redUK
Does anyone have a link to the 18z GFS 200-850 shear 200-850 forecast?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



are you a wishcaster ??? P


While it may make the account holder a wishcaster.... there actually is some potential for development in the BOC.... Its just low... less than 20% probably
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Grand Turk, Turks And Caicos Islands WeatherSave Location
Updated: Jul 21, 2010, 4pm Local TimeUPDATE DATAView Options
Right Now
Forecast:
Partly Cloudy / Windy Temperature:81°F
Feels Like: 87° Past 24-hr:Precip: N/A
Snow: N/A Wind:From E at 29mph
very impressive winds from the turks an caicos
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ULL looks to also becoming a little weaker on the 200 mb vort.

3 hours ago, look at the deep reds.


Now


Probably doesn't mean much, but I thought it was slightly interesting.
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turst me if wind shear was has say on that wind shear you wont even be seeing t-storms they be blown right off



so wind shear right now is olny 15 too 20kt if not a tad lower
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1540. xcool



Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then look at where the low is analyzed by the Ensembles. No where near the vort max.


Another problem with models and somewhat disorganized features...erroneous initialization points resulting in...GIGO
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Quoting StormW:
Taking a quick look at satellite loop imagery (RGB) those interested in the area SE of Puerto Rico...no worry at the moment. If you look closely, you can see the tops of the convection streaming south, being affected by the outflow pattern for 97L.

RGB LOOP


And they say 97L is the victim.
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Quoting Thaale:

There's always Mount Trashmore.


Yeah....I "slipped" into the one next to the Turnpike in Pompano Beach several years ago during Spring Cleaning.......Those don't count.
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Quoting redUK:


Care to qualify your "thoughts"?



no need too
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1534. xcool




Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Storm, doing good. My feet hurt and I'm hot... but I don't think that will change until this baby is born!
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1532. Patrap
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Then look at where the low is analyzed by the Ensembles. No where near the vort max.



Thats because they were run awhile Back.

Look at the White Line CT.


Its moves each run to Best Estimated Center. Its not just a Guesstimate.

18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1531. redUK
Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont not think wind shear on 97L is that high i think wind shear is olny like 15 too 20kt


Care to qualify your "thoughts"?
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Quoting wfyweather:


what I think your forgetting is that the ULL is moving west right now almost in tandem with 97L.... that low shear in the GOM may not last....


Well, if it moved SW it would cause more shear, and rob the system of needed energy. Big difference. W vs SW.
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Quoting Patrap:
Fleas and Ticks are a much better indicator of a Storm coming.

When u see them Packing up and leaving the Dog..and calling a Cab..

One best get a move one.


on tv they said the elephants actually wept actual tears right before the tsunami. as if weeping about the iminent annihilation. at least fire ants know enough to leave.
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1528. scott39
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well I wouldn't expect a Hurricane by Saturday. If anything, by Saturday we'll see a weak TS at most. I do feel that Friday afternoon is when this will become TD3 if it does. Once it gets into the Gulf though.. check out the shear.



Certainly does have the potential to cause headaches. What I find interesting is that the ECMWF predicts the ULL to head SW and hamper development. Yet the past few hours the ULL has been moving west at a quick speed.

I think the ECMWF is going to play catch-up! IMO
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Quoting StormW:
Taking a quick look at satellite loop imagery (RGB) those interested in the area SE of Puerto Rico...no worry at the moment. If you look closely, you can see the tops of the convection streaming south, being affected by the outflow pattern for 97L.

RGB LOOP
For all those who are confused, listen to this man!
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1526. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1525. Thaale
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


That must be a joke as there are no "hills" in the Bahamas and South Florida.....Right?

There's always Mount Trashmore.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


CyberTeddy, you got a link to the ECMWF.


Right here.
Link
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1523. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


You have a very low opinion of me...you're not far wrong, but still...
Nothing could be further from the truth..
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well I wouldn't expect a Hurricane by Saturday. If anything, by Saturday we'll see a weak TS at most. I do feel that Friday afternoon is when this will become TD3 if it does. Once it gets into the Gulf though.. check out the shear.



Certainly does have the potential to cause headaches. What I find interesting is that the ECMWF predicts the ULL to head SW and hamper development. Yet the past few hours the ULL has been moving west at a quick speed.



what I think your forgetting is that the ULL is moving west right now almost in tandem with 97L.... that low shear in the GOM may not last....
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Quoting hurricanejunky:


and besides, we NEED the rain. At least here in N. Ft. Myers, we've had yet another dry rainy season thus far. Seems when I was a kid and up until recently, every day between 3 and 5 pm the thunderboomers and heavy rains would come.
Not anymore...weirdness...


I have a theory that involves the Kissimmee River, Lake Okeechobee, Everglades ecosystem. But, that's for another day.
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i dont not think wind shear on 97L is that high i think wind shear is olny like 15 too 20kt
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Quoting Thaale:
97L has been slower to develop than many of the models called for. As later model runs incorporated the slow development, tracks have shifted W and S. If the system gets into Cuba before getting organized, it might never do so. Look at the ensemble of 18Z GFS runs:



Then look at where the low is analyzed by the Ensembles. No where near the vort max.
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Does anyone remember last year's Erika? That thing was a MESS compared with 97L. However, I do understand that it was classified as it met all the qualities of a TS EAST of the Lesser Antilles.
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1516. DVG
Looking at the experimental model y'all were kind enough to post, I'd say if 97 makes it to a name storm, we'll have at least 3 for July, maybe 4.

Couple hundred hours out, it looks like a heavy hitter in the works.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well I wouldn't expect a Hurricane by Saturday. If anything, by Saturday we'll see a weak TS at most. I do feel that Friday afternoon is when this will become TD3 if it does. Once it gets into the Gulf though.. check out the shear.



Certainly does have the potential to cause headaches. What I find interesting is that the ECMWF predicts the ULL to head SW and hamper development. Yet the past few hours the ULL has been moving west at a quick speed.





that wind shear may be a little off
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


97L is a persistent little bugger.. these little buggers usually develop into a serious headache for someone. I've seen far worse looking invests at this stage that have become powerful systems. Whether or not conditions are going to favorable for that to happen we'll wait and see. I do see a 40 mph TS by Saturday though.


CyberTeddy, you got a link to the ECMWF.
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
Quoting wfyweather:


Yeah.. It does have the potential to be a big problem.... and yes.... there have been horrible looking invests... much much worse than this.... and yeah sometime between now and Sat I expect Bonnie from this... heck... maybe even Hurricane Bonnie


Well I wouldn't expect a Hurricane by Saturday. If anything, by Saturday we'll see a weak TS at most. I do feel that Friday afternoon is when this will become TD3 if it does. Once it gets into the Gulf though.. check out the shear.



Certainly does have the potential to cause headaches. What I find interesting is that the ECMWF predicts the ULL to head SW and hamper development. Yet the past few hours the ULL has been moving west at a quick speed.

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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