97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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4412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03L/TD/L
MARK
21.4N/72.9W
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4411. scott39
My local news here in Mobile just said 97L is a TD. I heard it twice!
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extreme, what are your thoughts with the track of 97L...(soon to be at least TD3)?

Quoting extreme236:
Models kind of dropping the ball with these systems.
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Quoting cg2916:


Yeah, when do they get a center fix on it?


Later this afternoon.. I'm in good confidence that when I get home from work, Bonnie will be here, maybe TD4.. so much for the "July bust"
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Dupage has an awesome 1km floater when it finally comes into view.

LINK
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4407. est1986
lol StormHype :P
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4406. MahFL
100 % now............
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4405. gator23
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
call me crazy but i see a wpb to vero impact point on this one

no surprised since you live in Palm Bay

KENT'S LAW IS NOW IN EFFECT:

I THINK IT GOING TO HIT(INSERT YOUR CURRENT LOCATION)
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
4404. Grothar
They are going to update these soon.

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Models kind of dropping the ball with these systems.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
a little of both really


Quoting scott39:
Is the ULL farther away from 97L or is it weekning?
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Good Morning All!

Been a lurker for years but could not hold back any longer! Excellent Blog! StormW your input has taught me so much. Thank you to all.
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4399. scott39
Is the ULL farther away from 97L or is it weekning?
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4398. calder
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Looks like the centre is still at the southernmost tip of the convection...
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Quoting Hurricanes12:
How far north should the track get?

Is Broward County going to see effects?



going to be just a big rain event for all of us in SFL
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Quoting reedzone:
Recon should find TS Bonnie later today.

Yup.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
thanks for answering my question... now I'm scared..
really scared because I'm not going to get any work done today and becuase of Bonnie/WU and I might get fired.... lol
Might as well face it I'm addicted to WUve


Back away from the computer.....
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
May I ask what the shear predictions are for the next 24 hrs? I know they have dropped but what conditions are the storm expected to encounter between now and landfall? (presumably in S. FL) Also, are the SSTs I'm reading really right? I had no idea the water was that HOT! With that said, what would potentially keep this from becoming a Cat 1?
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12z SHIPS brings 98L up to minimal TS status in 12 hours then moves it inland.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Looks like the ECMWF missed one here.. did it ever develop 97L?
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5361
Accuweather at 7 am this morning said they doubt 97L would ever develop into anything, maybe in 3 or 4 days when it gets into gulf, looks like they were wrong.
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Quoting tkeith:
open the link, then add to favoreites...I think that will work.

Sorry I was looking for the website that link came from. Doesn't show from what I could see on that link.
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4388. fmbill
Quoting IKE:
Was at 21.3N and 74.0W
New coordinates at 21.6N and 74.4W.


How fast is the forward motion? Doesn't seem to be moving as fast as the models seem to predict.
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thanks for answering my question... now I'm scared..
really scared because I'm not going to get any work done today and becuase of Bonnie/WU and I might get fired.... lol
Might as well face it I'm addicted to WUve
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4386. Grothar
Little more organization than an hour ago.

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Quoting Clearwater1:
Jeff, models seem to point it further away from tampa bay area, what's your reasoning for thinking tb area by friday. Maybe new models i'v not seen. tia


Here's why the 2am models are off. 1) The center init position was in error as it's actually NE of that used for that run. 2) They didn't expect it to be a TD/TS so soon, so a stronger system will be inclined to move more pollward (north). The 8am ones aren't the ones to watch so much as tonight when the flight data gets ingested into the models.
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Is the center of the LLC due north of the eastern most tip of Cuba?
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Quoting weatherman12345:

do you think this begin rapid intesification before3 landfall
Not rapid intensification but some quick strengthening to a moderate strength TS is still possible if shear is low and dry air is not a problem. Those Bahamas and Gulf stream waters are steroids for a system if conditions around it are favorable.
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4382. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Wed 21 Jul 2010 15:15:01Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
98L.INVEST
03L.THREE
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
99W.INVEST
04W.CHANTHU
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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4381. Drakoen
I see 97L has organized enough to become a tropical cyclone and 98L looks to be the way to becomming one as well.
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4380. gator23
ya i think this season is a bust. Jk
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
call me crazy but i see a wpb to vero impact point on this one
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking at satellite loops TD3/Bonnie earlier looked like it hit a wall.. now it looks more circular. Shear is dying down some.


Yea. The latest shear from the CIMSS says that it's 10 kts. around TD3/Bonnie.



Shear is favorable for both invests.
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Quoting IKE:
Was at 21.3N and 74.0W
New coordinates at 21.6N and 74.4W.


Almost straight NW
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looking at satellite loops TD3/Bonnie earlier looked like it hit a wall.. now it looks more circular. Shear is dying down some.


There's a small, but nice anticyclone over it now.. Not screaming out the "K", but with those water temps and good conditions, anything is possible. South Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas needs to closely monitor what this storm does in the next 24-36 hours.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Meanwhile.. 98L exhibiting spiral bandings. TD4 developing.



If I'm reading the TAFB fix right, it gave it a "too weak" at 11:45 UTC. I'm not sure what's going on with the dvorak numbers...looks fairly impressive.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
How far north should the track get?

Is Broward County going to see effects?
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Meanwhile.. 98L exhibiting spiral bandings. TD4 developing.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24252
4370. calder
Wow, I got up this morning and 97L actually looked pretty sick, sheared heavily on the west side and convection away from the centre, as well as broad vorticity and not being stacked through the levels. I have been out for 2 hours and it's really got its act together. This is why the tropics are so mysterious!
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4369. QMiami
when does recon go in
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4368. IKE
Was at 21.3N and 74.0W
New coordinates at 21.6N and 74.4W.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
4367. cg2916
Quoting reedzone:
Recon should find TS Bonnie later today.


Yeah, when do they get a center fix on it?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3046
Looking at satellite loops TD3/Bonnie earlier looked like it hit a wall.. now it looks more circular. Shear is dying down some.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24252
4363. scott39
You better have some fast DSL today!
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Quoting all4hurricanes:

Seriously!!!!! Why not Cuba they're right next to this thing


b/c it is moving to the WNW- away from Cuba.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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