97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Seflhurricane:
to kill time quick poll, what percentage will 97L have in the next TWO

A) 40%
b) 50%
C) 60%
D) 70%


B
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Provo Golf club pressure is 29.75 inches

which translates to 1007.4mb


Now that is impressive.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3768
1859. Drakoen
TPC 24 hour forecast shows a closed low in the BOC

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Avila's prolly gone for the day... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
Quoting Drakoen:
Someone needs to wake up Avila lol


LOL Knab drugged him.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3768
aside from 97L i am very intrested in the waves coming off africa they are looking good
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Provo Golf club pressure is 29.75 inches

which translates to 1007.4mb
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1854. unf97
Invest should probably be declared shortly for that disturbance in BOC.
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NHC says the trof in the BOC will move into Texas tonight
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
to kill time quick poll, what percentage will 97L have in the next TWO

A) 40%
b) 50%
C) 60%
D) 70%

B
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1851. Drakoen
Someone needs to wake up Avila lol
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Thank you to everyone who answered my question: you guys rock!
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Quoting muddertracker:
Storm/Levi/Reed/

Can a ULL sometimes help outflow? If so, when?



Yes, indeed it can help outflow. Depends on the positon of the disturbance with respect to the upper low. In the case of 97L, its right next to the upper low, so its getting sheared. If it was distanced from the upper low, then it would help its outflow instead.
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Bwaaaah it has a PIN-HOLE eye
anyway why are we forecasting the NHC forecast on 97L couldn't we skip a step and ask if this will become a depression in the next 48 hours?
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Quoting wfyweather:


Looks very possible... ECMWF shows development.
Area currently also looks more favorable.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks possible Ike. Nice upper level anticyclone over head. Maybe it will beat 97L to Bonnie.



That looks pretty interesting, great anti-cyclone too. Probably won't have enough time to develop.
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i think 98L and either 20 or 30 percent for the boc.... and 40 percent for 97L... as it isnt doin much today.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


This blog should be called Reportapalooza!

Seems like everybody is trigger-happy with the Admin report. In fact, I'm sure this post that violates none of the Rules of the Road will be reported.

Meanwhile, 97L has an opinion of its own that none of will get to know until it finally makes a move one way or the other.


Yeah.. seems like bloggers kinda made their own Rules of the Road. People report just when people have a different opinion, and these rules seem to have completely disappeared:

2. Stay on topic.
6.No comments that contain only personal notes such as, "Good Morning!", or "You've got mail, X".
7. Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.

And yeah I realize that segment was not on the topic of weather.

Does anyone know when this updates?


Every 3 hours like CIMSS or what?
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1841. unf97
Quoting stormpetrol:
I wonder the area 15N/65W couldn't become a separate entity to worry about in itself.


I wondered the same thing most of the day. I asked StormW about that area SE of Puerto Rico, and he is correct in is analysis right now in that the outflow from 97L is blowing the cloud tops S-SE from the convection that has been pulsating over that wave. So, don't look for development from that area, at least for the next few days. Whatever becomes of 97L would have to move farther away from the eastern Carribean wave for it to have any possible chance to develop.
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Based on the cloud/convection movement from the DR Coast into 97L move the developing LLC east about .7 deg.

What is amazing is look at everything flowing into 97L from the South to North east at both high and low levels on the visible loop and then what is coming out? Some shear to the north and Probably a LOT of rain.
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1839. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 212100 CCA ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CHANTHU 1003 (1003) INITIAL TIME 212100 UTC
00HR 20.2N 111.8E 970HPA 35M/S (70 knots)
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 16KM/H
P+24HR 21.9N 108.7E 990HPA 23M/S
P+48HR 22.3N 106.6E 1002HPA 13M/S=

---
2 minute sustained winds of 70 knots from CMA.
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1838. Drakoen
Low pressure center may be trying to form with the BOC disturbance you can see evidence of rotation.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
to kill time quick poll, what percentage will 97L have in the next TWO

A) 40%
b) 50%
C) 60%
D) 70%


Not another pole...time to sign off
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think we may see yellow on that one soon all so it looks like a TD too me right now all so we see 98L soon out of that and all so where is that going?
may not have time to develop before it hits mexico
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Quoting Tazmanian:



i think we may see yellow on that one soon all so it looks like a TD too me right now all so we see 98L soon out of that and all so where is that going?

WNW for Mexico
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I think you are trying to be too precise with global models, and since we don't have an obvious CC, one of the members may be correct. From my experience they don't do the center relocation on the global models untill its a well developed system. Under your thinking, we would have to throw out the 12Z CMC, NAM and GFS (AVNO) since they all started at different positions.

AL 97 2010072112 03 CMC 0 193N 718W

AL 97 2010072112 03 NAM 0 201N 705W

AL 97 2010072112 03 AVNO 0 200N 718W


I agree with you...my pont is this: how "correct" can any result be if you start 125nm from the actual center? I understand that we're talking about the entire system...for Alex, as an example, when the CC was indeterminate in this huge volume of atmosphere, the modeling results were quite varied...due, in some greater degree, to the weakness of the system and the indeterminate CC intialization
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Quoting DestinJeff:


c'mon. you know they are never quick.
i know
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Quoting Drakoen:


Looks possible Ike. Nice upper level anticyclone over head. Maybe it will beat 97L to Bonnie.



Looks very possible... ECMWF shows development.
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1830. Drakoen
Quoting Tazmanian:



i think we may see yellow on that one soon all so it looks like a TD too me right now all so we see 98L soon out of that and all so where is that going?


Mexico
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Quoting reedzone:


Enough now, you have been reported to admin because you constantly bash those who have logical reasons on why this season will get active, including the NHC. Conditions are now finally coming together for a very active season with 10 or more storms. This is not a 2009 season, this is 2010 with many factors coming in to play for a very active hurricane season, get used to it!


I am not bashing anyone. What are you talking about?
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to kill time quick poll, what percentage will 97L have in the next TWO

A) 40%
b) 50%
C) 60%
D) 70%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Keemie:
I'm here in the British Virgin Islands, very interested in the weather dynamics & whats not. The area is still on a Flash Flood Watch until 4am Thursday. Here is a link of the damage we've seen thus far.

Link
Hey Keemie. Is it still raining there?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22359
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks possible Ike. Nice upper level anticyclone over head. Maybe it will beat 97L to Bonnie.



Levi contends it has around 48 hours prior to landfall (the BOC disturbance). That about right?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3768
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks possible Ike. Nice upper level anticyclone over head. Maybe it will beat 97L to Bonnie.




i think we may see yellow on that one soon all so it looks like a TD too me right now all so we see 98L soon out of that and all so where is that going?
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1822. WxLogic
Quoting Jeff9641:


Yep, I see that. It will be interesting to where the put 97L on the 8Pm advisory.


Definitely, need to know what NHC has to say about 97L.
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Quoting Drakoen:


Looks possible Ike. Nice upper level anticyclone over head. Maybe it will beat 97L to Bonnie.



Wow, looks impressive. And very large. They may put this at 20% in the next TWO.
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Looks like the low of 97L want to sneak WSW and brush the tip of Eastern Cuba around 20.7N/73W
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Quoting Keemie:
I'm here in the British Virgin Islands, very interested in the weather dynamics & whats not. The area is still on a Flash Flood Watch until 4am Thursday. Here is a link of the damage we've seen thus far.

Link


Oh my that is quite stunning, all from a disturbance.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3768
1817. Patrap


Later,,phunk Phest


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1816. Drakoen
Quoting IKE:
Latest GFS @ 18 hours... puts 97L over eastern Cuba and spins up a BOC low.


Looks possible Ike. Nice upper level anticyclone over head. Maybe it will beat 97L to Bonnie.

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1815. xcool
GFS HA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
According to the latest RUC analysis, it appears that shear is abating slightly in the vicinity of 97L.

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mondo jerry had a good summer song
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1812. Keemie
I'm here in the British Virgin Islands, very interested in the weather dynamics & whats not. The area is still on a Flash Flood Watch until 4am Thursday. Here is a link of the damage we've seen thus far.

Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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