97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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LOL...funny how the whole blog has gone over to talking about the BOC....something.

What do we always say about potentially large circulations all? Not saying it isn't possible (but very unlikely with that large of circulation), just saying that is how bad 97L is performing right now...(laughs)
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Quoting StormW:


Yes it would. I remember one night while assisting my met professor, brought up a past satellite loop of the Pacific...there wasn't a hint of anything in the particular area...I mean zilch...then about 24 hours later, explosive cyclogenesis. Was just amazing to see how quick it went from blank ocean to a monster.


BOC caster!
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The weather outside is frightful
My friends on here insightful
All guessing where it will go
Let it Blow
Let it Blow
Let it Blow


The Official CAA calibrated Barometer for Providenciales airport is at:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MD3106

its latest is 1013.1

ALL others should be considered uncalibrated
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Quoting extreme236:
18z GFS Parallel shows a low in the BoC through 66 hours (as far as the GFS is up to so far)


ECMWF shows it in 24 hours, TPC shows a closed low in 24 as well.
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Max Mayfield said if everything stays the way it is right now, it will be a rain event for us on Friday but of course things can changed and should be monitered, models are still showing South Florida, sometime around Fri 2am. Mentioned the ull and basically it's a watch and wait.

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18z GFS Parallel shows a low in the BoC through 66 hours (as far as the GFS is up to so far)
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Quoting Goldenblack:
??? On what maps are you basing that information ???

I don't base anything on maps, never do the key words to look for and interpret in my comment is "looks like" I only go by my what eyes sees real time in my personal opinion, occasionally my eyes will shift back and forth just like the "models &maps"
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1904. hydrus
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Would be very interesting if the area in the BOC became Bonnie.. that would catch a lot of people by surprise.
It does seem to have good outflow on the visible satellite image.
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1903. unf97
Tghe only thing is will it have enough time over water in the BOC to intensify to a named system. It will be a close call because it looks to move inland in Mexico within the next 24-36 hours.
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
what i mean is its going to make landfall before it has a chance to develop


It still has probably around 36-48 hours.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Me neither. Remember Marco 2008?

Or Brett, Gert, and Jose from 2005:



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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Pressure at Grace Bay golf club were never lower than 1013mb yesterday at any time

pressures are running 5-6 mbs lower today, that is not normal daily fluctuations, it is due to 97L

"...pressures are running 4-5mbs lower today..." that's scary.
EDIT: I meant 4-5mbs.
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1898. scott39
The pipeline is open! Choo Choo
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Would be very interesting if the area in the BOC became Bonnie.. that would catch a lot of people by surprise.
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Quoting Keemie:


Hey! Currently it's drizzling. The last rain band we had, there were strong gusty winds with that squall. Could've been a gust front before the squall came in.
Sure hope u guys are done with that 97L.... Looks like we are going to "get ours" starting tonight and into Friday...

Though now that 97L has made it that far, it looks like we're going to get wave after wave coming through for the next little while.... I notice the latest is set up about 45W now.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
97L kind of reminds me of Hurricane Hanna when it was a tropical storm.

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1894. xcool
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Pressure at Grace Bay golf club were never lower than 1012mb yesterday at any time

pressures are running 4-5 mbs lower today, that is not normal daily fluctuations, it is due to 97L
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1892. Keemie
I'm watching though the messiness to the SE of the area located along the Windward & Leewards Islands..Probably this convection could build over the area later. What you guys thinkLink
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Quoting extreme236:


We've seen dozens of systems form in this general area so I'm not sure why proximity to land would be a problem.
what i mean is its going to make landfall before it has a chance to develop
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


that location is in the Turks and Caicos Islands which is close to the center of 97L



wow mb are drop like a rock
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Quoting extreme236:


We've seen dozens of systems form in this general area so I'm not sure why proximity to land would be a problem.

Me neither. Remember Marco 2008?
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Area in the BOC 'could' form similar to Bret did in 2005.
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Quoting leelee75k:
was the stuff hanging over the leewards island part of 97L or is it a separate wave?

btw Max Mayfield is giving an update on channel 10 now.
i just missed him what did he say
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Quoting Dakster:
Do you think the models will continue to shift south (left) for 97L?
Possible. A lot depends on how well it performs overnight. If it strengthens any, I forsee a right shift again.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
Quoting Seflhurricane:
very true but i am not really concerned about it, its close proximity to mexico will not alow it to develop before it hits land


We've seen dozens of systems form in this general area so I'm not sure why proximity to land would be a problem.
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Surprise Bonnie? Looks very interesting.
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was the stuff hanging over the leewards island part of 97L or is it a separate wave?

btw Max Mayfield is giving an update on channel 10 now.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

You forgot to mention the THING IN THE BOC.
very true but i am not really concerned about it, its close proximity to mexico will not alow it to develop before it hits land
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Quoting Tazmanian:



for wish storm lol


that location is in the Turks and Caicos Islands which is close to the center of 97L
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1878. Keemie
Quoting ElConando:


Oh my that is quite stunning, all from a disturbance.


Yes! Well I mean, the BVI{British Virgin Islans} are prone to flooding, but yesterday there were really really strong squalls that came in.
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If you use what the SHIPS analyzed shear as, only a small relaxation in those upper level winds could result in improved organization...I still believe this will become a named storm (be it Bonnie or Colin).
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Quoting Drakoen:
Maybe we will have Bonnie and Colin.


That would quite the people questing Dr. Gray's predictions.
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??? On what maps are you basing that information ???

Quoting stormpetrol:
97L looks like it wants to sneak between Haiti and East tip of Cuba, sneaky devil that 97L
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Quoting Seflhurricane:
aside from 97L i am very intrested in the waves coming off africa they are looking good

You forgot to mention the THING IN THE BOC.
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... HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY. THE ADVISORY AREA COVERS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA... GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO MACON TO WASHINGTON. TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL GENERATE HEAT INDICES IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE ON THURSDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY MEANS THAT A PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX READINGS OF AT LEAST 105 DEGREES AND VERY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS... STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM AND STAY OUT OF DIRECT SUNSHINE.

REMEMBER... THE ELDERLY... VERY YOUNG... AND PEOPLE WITH HEART CONDITIONS ARE MOST AT RISK IN EXTREME HEAT. FRIENDS... RELATIVES... AND NEIGHBORS SHOULD CHECK ON PEOPLE WHO MAY BE AT RISK.

&&

Ughhh up to 108 heat indices? Stay out of direct sunlight? I'm gonna be marching for hours and I already have a mild sunburn. This is gonna suck.
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Quoting extreme236:


I have a feeling the NHC "might" mention this in the next TWO. Could very well spin up into Bonnie before moving into Mexico.


It isn't attached to any fronts so maybe lol.
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Well, considering that the wiseheads weren't actually expecting anything of 97L until it got right about where it is, I'd say the next 24 could be the most interesting w/ this system.

Other thing, I heard from family in Mayaguana that they have been warned to look out for flooding in two of the three settlements there. I guess our local met office learned its lesson from Noel...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
1870. Dakster
Do you think the models will continue to shift south (left) for 97L?
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1869. Drakoen
Maybe we will have Bonnie and Colin.
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97L looks like it wants to sneak between Haiti and East tip of Cuba, sneaky devil that 97L
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Looks good for the system in the far southern Gulf/Bay of Campeche! But does it have enough time? That remains to be seen...

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Quoting Drakoen:
TPC 24 hour forecast shows a closed low in the BOC



Definitely needs to be watched... especially if it is still in that location in 24 hrs... that will give it enough time
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Provo Golf club pressure is 29.75 inches

which translates to 1007.4mb



for wish storm lol
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Quoting Drakoen:
TPC 24 hour forecast shows a closed low in the BOC



I have a feeling the NHC "might" mention this in the next TWO. Could very well spin up into Bonnie before moving into Mexico.
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1863. Keemie
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey Keemie. Is it still raining there?


Hey! Currently it's drizzling. The last rain band we had, there were strong gusty winds with that squall. Could've been a gust front before the squall came in.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.