97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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I cant find anywhere that says we have 98L.... although im not surprised if we do
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's much closer to the surface than you're previous posts Taz. Good catch, although it still isn't at surface it's pretty close.



thanks
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1960. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:
now we have two thing too watch 98L and 97L
Im first--- Where will 98L go? LOL
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I caught it the second they put up 98L.. I went to see if 97L changed any and at first it didn't have 98L. So I refreshed it for a kicks and sure enough.. 98L.
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1958. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/97/L
MARK
20.8N/70.9W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
1957. Dakster
Quoting leelee75k:
Max Mayfield said if everything stays the way it is right now, it will be a rain event for us on Friday but of course things can changed and should be monitered, models are still showing South Florida, sometime around Fri 2am. Mentioned the ull and basically it's a watch and wait.



So it doesn't look like I will be getting blown this weekend afterall... Just wet.
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The NHC should issue a !Special Outlook!
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Quoting reedzone:


I may have gone a bit over the line, but I had to bold these "statements" of yours. Statements that you feel are true, but in reality, they are your opinion. It is your opinion that Hurricane Season is a bust and starts in mid August. Nothing else supports that late start btw. "pathetic invests" invests are invests. The only reason why I called TD2 "pathetic" was because it wasn't an invest, it was an actual TD that lost it's convection and circulation overnight after it was classified. Weather agencies have proof and data to make their forecasts reliable. They haven't lowered their numbers much if at all because anything can happen in a Hurricane Season. This is not 2005, but still predicted to be an active season, above 10 named systems. A few days ago you were bashing anyone who disagreed with you. I only bash those who state it like facts when it's only an opinion.



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/gfs.gif
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



but where


Look at the coordinates. It's in the BoC.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (Surface) 70° (from the ENE) 24 knots (28 mph)
1007mb 75° (from the ENE) 29 knots (33 mph)
983mb 80° (from the E) 27 knots (31 mph)
936mb 90° (from the E) 35 knots (40 mph)
850mb 95° (from the E) 29 knots (33 mph)
789mb 125° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
666mb 120° (from the ESE) 11 knots (13 mph)
647mb 155° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph)
619mb 145° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
609mb 160° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
552mb 130° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
519mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
512mb 140° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
433mb 160° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
375mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
366mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
337mb 135° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
327mb 150° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
293mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
243mb 190° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
193mb 255° (from the WSW) 18 knots (21 mph)
162mb 250° (from the WSW) 24 knots (28 mph)
155mb 200° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)


That's much closer to the surface than you're previous posts Taz. Good catch, although it still isn't at surface it's pretty close.
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Quoting robert88:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/gfs.gif That is not what you want to see if you want development. That is some strong negative upward motion headed into the Atlantic basin.


You fail to realize we have seen these same forecasts for weeks that have failed to materialize. Significant downward motion has had trouble moving into this basin for weeks. I remember at the beginning of July there was supposed to be downward motion during a lot of July. That never happened.
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Quoting Drakoen:
98L is here



but where
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now we have two thing too watch 98L and 97L
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
We have 98L..
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007212210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Looks like my prediction (more of a guess LOL) of 20% for the BOC area is coming along well... it actually may be higher.
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1943. Drakoen
98L is here
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1942. scott39
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We have 98L..
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007212210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Code red whoop whoop!!LOL
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1941. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
20.0 92.8W?
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44845
Its here..
Link
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where 20W 92W??
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Quoting robert88:
You guys realize there is a good possibility we will not see a minimal hurricane until mid August. We have negative dry sinking upward motion coming from the Pacific and going to be in place until mid August. Get used to looking at these pathetic invests and TS's like 97L for a while. Climatology seems to rule this season. I am not ready to jump the bus just yet though. I do however have a gut feeling all these weather agencies are going to have a lot of explaining to do at the end of the season with their forecast #'s.


I may have gone a bit over the line, but I had to bold these "statements" of yours. Statements that you feel are true, but in reality, they are your opinion. It is your opinion that Hurricane Season is a bust and starts in mid August. Nothing else supports that late start btw. "pathetic invests" invests are invests. The only reason why I called TD2 "pathetic" was because it wasn't an invest, it was an actual TD that lost it's convection and circulation overnight after it was classified. Weather agencies have proof and data to make their forecasts reliable. They haven't lowered their numbers much if at all because anything can happen in a Hurricane Season. This is not 2005, but still predicted to be an active season, above 10 named systems. A few days ago you were bashing anyone who disagreed with you. I only bash those who state it like facts when it's only an opinion.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1936. EricSFL
Quoting btwntx08:
also guess whos back -_-


LOL
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That was unexpected. 98L in the BOC per ATCF. 25 mph, 1009 mb.
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Bet we see Bonnie out of 98 quick-like.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
We have 98L..
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007212210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

Can someone confirm this?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
We have 98L..
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007212210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,



OMG where
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


Later,,phunk Phest




Yuck, 97L looks messy on the Dvorak IR, I am still believing it won't develop due to wind shear.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


even more eerie is you got post 1915 too, which if I remember right was the next big Galveston storm after 1900 lol

Haha, that is correct! What are the chances of that? XD

EDIT: In retrospect, I noticed that I just missed post 1932 as well, which was the 3rd and last Category 4 hurricane to make landfall in the Galveston area in recorded history.
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Good catch cybr!
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
The weather outside is frightful
My friends on here insightful
All guessing where it will go
Let it Blow
Let it Blow
Let it Blow


The Official CAA calibrated Barometer for Providenciales airport is at:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MD3106

its latest is 1013.1

ALL others should be considered uncalibrated
Hey, CRS, was wondering when u'd look in here.

Looks like u guys are gettin some rain, eh? U have to tell me what to expect... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21556
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (Surface) 70° (from the ENE) 24 knots (28 mph)
1007mb 75° (from the ENE) 29 knots (33 mph)
983mb 80° (from the E) 27 knots (31 mph)
936mb 90° (from the E) 35 knots (40 mph)
850mb 95° (from the E) 29 knots (33 mph)
789mb 125° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
666mb 120° (from the ESE) 11 knots (13 mph)
647mb 155° (from the SSE) 13 knots (15 mph)
619mb 145° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
609mb 160° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
552mb 130° (from the SE) 13 knots (15 mph)
519mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
512mb 140° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
433mb 160° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
375mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
366mb 160° (from the SSE) 15 knots (17 mph)
337mb 135° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
327mb 150° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
293mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
243mb 190° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
193mb 255° (from the WSW) 18 knots (21 mph)
162mb 250° (from the WSW) 24 knots (28 mph)
155mb 200° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1925. A4Guy
Seems to me convection is building closer to the center. Not sure it means anything yet…just my novice observation.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/gfs.gif That is not what you want to see if you want development. That is some strong negative upward motion headed into the Atlantic basin.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
We have 98L..
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_al982010.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201007212210
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2010, DB, O, 2010072118, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982010
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 928W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1922. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15626
Quoting leelee75k:
Max Mayfield said if everything stays the way it is right now, it will be a rain event for us on Friday but of course things can changed and should be monitered, models are still showing South Florida, sometime around Fri 2am. Mentioned the ull and basically it's a watch and wait.

Good call.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21556
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Haha, I (1900hurricane) got the 1900th post! XD

But anyway, storms do have a tendency to spin up into tropical storms rather quickly down in the Bay of Campeche.


even more eerie is you got post 1915 too, which if I remember right was the next big Galveston storm after 1900 lol
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1917. scott39
That ULL over 97L is more mule headed than my mother-Inlaw!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


ECMWF shows it in 24 hours, TPC shows a closed low in 24 as well.


GFS shows that the system is still not over land in 66 hours
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Haha, I (1900hurricane) got the 1900th post! XD

But anyway, storms do have a tendency to spin up into tropical storms rather quickly down in the Bay of Campeche.
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Quoting StormW:


Yes it would. I remember one night while assisting my met professor, brought up a past satellite loop of the Pacific...there wasn't a hint of anything in the particular area...I mean zilch...then about 24 hours later, explosive cyclogenesis. Was just amazing to see how quick it went from blank ocean to a monster.


Evening Chief! What do you think the NHC is going to say about 97L at 8 p.m.? I'm going to say that they're keeping it at 50%.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Or Brett, Gert, and Jose from 2005:




All 4 of them formed near the Mexican Coastline around the BOC anyway.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
LOL...funny how the whole blog has gone over to talking about the BOC....something.

What do we always say about potentially large circulations all? Not saying it isn't possible (but very unlikely with that large of circulation), just saying that is how bad 97L is performing right now...(laughs)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.