97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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2012. JLPR2
So this one is 98L?
Looks good.
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97L continues to improve on Rainbow ir Image Link
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2009. CaneBob
What 98L and where?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks very possible that 98L will be Bonnie first.. then 97L becomes Colin and gets close to Florida.


Yeah it is possible... the conditions are much more favorable in the BOC where 98L is... so it will be able to organize much quicker.... anyway.. im out.
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2007. cg2916
We have 98L?
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2006. cg2916
Quoting Dakster:
97L.... Another Katrina in the making...


I wouldn't go that far...
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Looks very possible that 98L will be Bonnie first.. then 97L becomes Colin and gets close to Florida.
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2003. Dakster
97L.... Another Katrina in the making...
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2002. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/98/L
MARK
20.5N/93.2W
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2001. scott39
Quoting StormW:


Is that like a Pop Tart? LOL!
yea, comes in many flavors of intensity! LOL!
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Local Corpus guy has no clue...you would think he would check these things before going on the air.
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1999. Drakoen
Excellent satellite view of 98L
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i wounder if this will be come 99L

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Quoting Drakoen:
I guess the "season" is here lol


I guess so lol. 98L popping up kind of out of no where is kind of the point I've been trying to stress about these season forecasts. We have no idea how quickly stuff could pop up in August and September.
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1996. xcool
WHERE IKE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1995. leo305
A clear COC may be beginning to form on the Visible for 97L, and it may be moving very slowly.
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1993. xcool
JULY POPOPOP
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Looks Like Hurricane Season 2010 is Finally Heating Up
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Quoting StormW:


And I wouldn't count too hard on that strong downward motion...at least hanging around too long.


Exactly! There are good reasons for the numbers to be so high this year. People need to be patient.. Heck we have 2 invests that have a good ptotential to develop. I only expected 1 storm this month, but maybe Colin could change my mind down there.
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1987. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
I keep forgetting about this page Link
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98L may this beat 97L
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Baha

...Looks like u guys are gettin some rain, eh? U have to tell me what to expect... lol

Actually surprisingly mild so far, it's not "frightful" but for some reason that tune came in my head as I check candles, lamp wicks, and replace flashlight batteries.

My highest gust so far was 43 mph about 2:30, I expect to be around here this evening and will let you know how it goes.
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I just looked at the wv sat. of Katrina, and i find it a little interesting. They had a ull nw of katrina, thats what slowed katrina from forming out further...Kinda like 97l from forming....Keep your guard up..
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1983. Patrap
Itsa been dere for a day..just developing s-l-o-w-l-y.



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1982. Drakoen
I guess the "season" is here lol
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1981. scott39
Quoting Tazmanian:



no am 1st where will 98L go
oh ok, LOL
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98L clearly showing signs of organization. Definite rotation from what I can tell.
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Quoting Acere25:
What? Are we gonna forget about 97L now? LOL, J/K, :).


In the short-term a lot of people probably will forget 97L lol and move on to watching 98L considering the nice anticyclone and organization associated with it. Although 850mb isn't as impressive as 97L's. Still, by the time 98L is done and over whether it gets named or not, there's a chance 97L will be back on track (if it's not already) and this is actually shaping up to be pretty interesting to me. Just my two cents I guess.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Here you go.
Link


Thanks!
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1977. Dakster
So if we get Bonnie and Collin within a day, we may still see that active season that was predicted? (I kind of hope we don't... but seems like Mother nature may have a trick up her sleeve)
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1976. xcool
MAYBE TWO NAMED HMMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
We have 98L in the BOC. Here's a satellite loop. This took me by surprise.. I didn't even mention the BOC in my discussion. This does appear to be getting quickly organized.
Link
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1973. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Wed 21 Jul 2010 22:15:01Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
98L.INVEST
97L.INVEST
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
99W.INVEST
04W.CHANTHU
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
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Waiting for the SHIPS text on 98L to see what it suggests.
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1970. scott39
You ever heard of pop up TC?
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Quoting robert88:



http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/gfs.gif


Those change all the time.
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Quoting btwntx08:
this is interesting an invest is born b4 the nhc mentions it lol



yup
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The NHC should issue a !Special Outlook!


Eh, were about an hour and a half away from the TWO...I don't see much need for one.
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Quoting wfyweather:
I cant find anywhere that says we have 98L.... although im not surprised if we do


Here you go.
Link
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Quoting scott39:
Im first--- Where will 98L go? LOL



no am 1st where will 98L go
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I cant find anywhere that says we have 98L.... although im not surprised if we do
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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