97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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2062. unf97
The wave in the eastern Carribean SE of Puerto Rico won't develop in the immediate short term due to its proximity to 97L. The outflow from 97L is blowing the convective cloud tops S-SE, as indicated on satelitte imagery.

The eastern Carribean wave may have a chance of developing in a few days after whatever becomes of 97L moves off farther west and northwest.
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2061. Bonz
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i just heard on the weather channel that jim cantore and mike siedel are headed to my area tomorrow ????


LOL. Oh CRUD. We're doomed then.
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Organizing 98L..


SPECIAL UPDATE 98L
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2058. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)


98L for those who do not see it on the NRL.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
Just saw Dr. Masters on ABC news re. 97L and its possible impact on the spill zone. Looking good!
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2055. Drakoen
Quoting Tazmanian:
new update for 98L

AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 927W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,


Impressive
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Hold on folks, hold on. 97L is NOT LIKE PRE-KATRINA AT ALL. To review, Katrina formed from the remnant mid-level circulation of TD 10 merging with the north end of a tropcial wave, creating a new disturbance over the eastern Bahamas.

Okay, when the pre-Katrina disturbance was over the eastern Bahamas, it was underneath an expansive anticyclonic upper ridge. Yes, there is also an expansive upper ridge north of 97L too. But guess what folks, there is an upper low trapped south of that ridge which is ruining 97L. This was NOT THE CASE during pre-Katrina in the Bahamas. So, no, this is not like pre-Katrina at all.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
2053. xcool
MODELS SOON
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
2051. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of Wed 21 Jul 2010 22:15:01Z

2010 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
98L.INVEST
97L.INVEST
East Pacific
NONE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
99W.INVEST
04W.CHANTHU
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricSFL:


Where?
just now they are being sent to cover some new story on the tropics ??? i just saw the last clip of it
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:


can you give a link to see it ?



Link
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2047. SLU


98L was probably spawned by the same "Jamaica wave" we were watching over the weekend and it looks rather well organised circulation-wise with ragged but developing convection. This system has a good chance for further development if it can remain over water for long enough.
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2046. scott39
The ULL is the rabbit and 97L is the turtle! Watch out for 97L---she aint out yet!
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new update for 98L

AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 927W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
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2043. leo305
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i just heard on the weather channel that jim cantore and mike siedel are headed to my area tomorrow ????


whcih is?
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Baha

...Looks like u guys are gettin some rain, eh? U have to tell me what to expect... lol

Actually surprisingly mild so far, it's not "frightful" but for some reason that tune came in my head as I check candles, lamp wicks, and replace flashlight batteries.

My highest gust so far was 43 mph about 2:30, I expect to be around here this evening and will let you know how it goes.
Kewl. I'll be around for a while. I'm hoping I actually do get up tomorrow to catch the dawn and hopefully some decent sunrise photos...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 20742
Quoting Tazmanian:




yes there is


can you give a link to see it ?
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Quoting xcool:


here Katrina 2005

by wxman57


LASTTIME POSTING
looks like a similar setup as 97L.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
As soon as StormW mentioned explosive TC development we get 98L in the BOC.


You wanna see some quick development looks no further.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3709
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
there is no official 98L.


Yes there is. It's on the NHC ATCF site.
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2037. hydrus
.................Tropical storm making landfall in China.... Plenty of moisture to make more cyclones.
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
there is no official 98L.




yes there is
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Quoting WeatherfanPR:
there is no official 98L.


Yes There is Go to the navy Website
2034. EricSFL
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i just heard on the weather channel that jim cantore and mike siedel are headed to my area tomorrow ????


Where?
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all so we need too watch this wave by the Lesser Antilles

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2032. xcool
btwntx08 HUH
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
The Atlantic is flaring up.
Areas to watch:
97L
98L
West African Waves


where's 98L and the other waves? Didn't realize we had another tropical wave to watch.
sheri
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there is no official 98L.
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i just heard on the weather channel that jim cantore and mike siedel are headed to my area tomorrow ????
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Wow 98L, hmmm. hmmm. I was about to chime in on the "Gulf of Mexico" disturbance, which I have to now call "98L." This has had a long time coming toghether, there were a few features that combined for the formation of this one, I've been watching this happen gradually.

Step 1) Remember that Caribbean Sea disuturbance in the central Caribbean last week? A broad surface low pressure area materialized east of Nicaragua from this, which was soon absorbed by a tropical wave moving in from the east. The absorbing wave moved westward into the western Caribbean, Yucatan, and into the southern Gulf of Mexico, where it interacted this week with a cut-off upper low in the Gulf. The upper low dominated as all clouds organized around it instead of the surface wave, preventing development.

Step 2) Now, remember that tropical wave south of Jamaica on the evening of July 19? I was really surprised that wave never developed. I also remember saying that would become 97L instead of the 97L we have now. It was under low shear and good outflow from a western Caribbean upper-level ridge, so I was surprised it didn't develop. This wave continued westward across the western Caribbean Sea, and also into the southern Gulf of Mexico.

3) Both tropical waves merged int the western Gulf of Mexico in the last few hours, creating a large, monsoonal like low pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico which is now Invest 98L. The cut-off upper low in the Gulf has moved westward out of the area, and now the disturbance is underneath anticyclonic upper ridging with relatively high upper atmospheric pressurs between the cut-off low to its west and the other cut-off low to the east (the eastern cut-off low is the same one that is shearing 97L). This has a better chance than poor ol' 97L which is suffering from shear.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 391 Comments: 3519
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The Atlantic is flaring up.
Areas to watch:
97L
98L
West African Waves (In General)
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97L looks better sorry earlier link did not work :):) Link
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2022. unf97
Quoting cg2916:


I wouldn't go that far...
Quoting Dakster:
97L.... Another Katrina in the making...


Please, you are getting way...way.. ahead of yourself!
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2021. scott39
Quoting Acere25:
Too bad its getting ready to hit land.
To bad for it--good for the peeps
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As soon as StormW mentioned explosive TC development we get 98L in the BOC.
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Quoting Keemie:
I'm here in the British Virgin Islands, very interested in the weather dynamics & whats not. The area is still on a Flash Flood Watch until 4am Thursday. Here is a link of the damage we've seen thus far.

Link


Keemie, i went to that site and looked at the picture that is really awful. My heart goes out to all the folks down there.
Where sending some boat seats we make to a guy in the BVI, we make them. But know after I seen these pics I am fixing to call him I guess we will send them next week.
I don't think Florida needs this kind of rain at all no one does.
So what is 97L doing? I have been gone for a while. I see where someone said the pressure is dropping is the ULL still near or over it. I think I have this right if the ULL stays really close to 97L it might not have a chance but if it moves away it will have a chance is that right, anyone? That's if anyone sees my post I don't know if I have been ignored or not I have asked a few ?'s earlier and no one answer except for Ike one time.
Sheri
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2018. xcool


here Katrina 2005

by wxman57


LASTTIME POSTING
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15603
2017. JLPR2
97L looks like a bird here
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2016. Dakster
Quoting cg2916:


I wouldn't go that far...


Not yet anyways.

Still think this will just be a rain event for South Florida with a possible Hurricane for someone in the GOM. More wait and see. Even the NHC doesn't have a real good handle/feeling on this one.
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Quoting JLPR2:
So this one is 98L?
Looks good.



looks like we may have a TD or TS in less then 12 too 24hrs
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2013. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
AL, 98, 2010072112, , BEST, 0, 194N, 923W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 197N, 927W, 20, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

moving northwest
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 48 Comments: 43702
2012. JLPR2
So this one is 98L?
Looks good.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.