97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2112 - 2062

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

They declared it an invest, they might do what they did for TD16 in 2008, they didn't even mention pre-TD16 in one TWO, the next it was a red alert.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
2111. xcool
A
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
everyone has been talking about a possible EATL thing, but I look at all the satellites known to man and still I don't see anything...
what gives?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Any models for 98
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2108. cg2916
Quoting CaribBoy:


From nothing to Red circle. THAT WOULD BE CRAZY. Tropics are heating up


Agreed.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!
invest 98L 8:00 TWO

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%

A. 30%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
i see red comeing with 98L


From nothing to Red circle. THAT WOULD BE CRAZY. Tropics are heating up
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L 70%
97L 40%
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
2104. Drakoen
Station south of 98L reporting winds out of the out of the west and has been throughout the day.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2103. cg2916
Quoting FLdewey:


No, Masters not Acere25


???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormpetrol:
I wrote a few days ago i thought we could have 3 named systems in the month of July, just could be I get this right for once, EATL wave is showing some potential too I think.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/avn-l.jpg

Don't see organization with the EATL wave.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting JLPR2:
This is the first time we get an invest before a colored circle this year, right?




yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
2100. JLPR2
This is the first time we get an invest before a colored circle this year, right?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2099. cg2916
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!
invest 98L 8:00 TWO

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%


E. 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherman12345:
POLL TIME!
invest 98L 8:00 TWO

A. 30%
B. 40%
C. 50%
D. 60%



D
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
It's confirmed by the NAVY site.

here's the link:

Link


Well we didn't need the Navy to confirm it lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2093. cg2916
Quoting ackee:
97L IS JUST over hype invest dont think it will even make it to TD status Do WE HAVE OFFICAL HAVE 98L?


Yes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricSFL:
I need to hear Brian Norcross tell us if we need to put up the shutters or not. LOL

I wish Bryan Norcross was still with CBS 4. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2089. EricSFL
I need to hear Brian Norcross tell us if we need to put up the shutters or not. LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2087. ackee
97L IS JUST over hype invest dont think it will even make it to TD status Do WE HAVE OFFICAL HAVE 98L?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:

The one in BOC really can't mount to much can it, it would probably go into Mexico or Texas, I guess what i am trying to ask it wouldn't have the time to make it to a TS or Hurricane would it?
sheri


Many hurricanes start in the BOC.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I wrote a few days ago i thought we could have 3 named systems in the month of July, just could be I get this right for once, EATL wave is showing some potential too I think.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
2083. palmpt
Quoting tbonehfx:
Just saw Dr. Masters on ABC news re. 97L and its possible impact on the spill zone. Looking good!


What does looking good mean?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It's confirmed by the NAVY site.

here's the link:

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:

The one in BOC really can't mount to much can it, it would probably go into Mexico or Texas, I guess what i am trying to ask it wouldn't have the time to make it to a TS or Hurricane would it?
sheri


It certainly has time to become a TS...now for a hurricane, that would really take some explosive development lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:

The one in BOC really can't mount to much can it, it would probably go into Mexico or Texas, I guess what i am trying to ask it wouldn't have the time to make it to a TS or Hurricane would it?
sheri


Models keep it over water for at least 48 hours so yes it does have time to become a TS, otherwise the NHC wouldn't have declared it an invest.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
i see red comeing with 98L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115453
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks very possible that 98L will be Bonnie first.. then 97L becomes Colin and gets close to Florida.


So much for a slow end of July...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
im thinkin 98L will pull a lorenzo in 2007


I respectfully beg to differ :) Lorenzo was a much smaller circulation than this really large, broad 98L. Small circulations pull of a Lorezno/Humberto (i.e. develop quickly). Large, broad circulations like this take there time developing. If this never develops, that will have been why it didn't (that's the only flaw with 98L, otherwise its in a great environment for development). It would have made landfall in eastern Mexico before having enough time for its large circulation to consolidate.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting CybrTeddy:
As soon as StormW mentioned explosive TC development we get 98L in the BOC.

The one in BOC really can't mount to much can it, it would probably go into Mexico or Texas, I guess what i am trying to ask it wouldn't have the time to make it to a TS or Hurricane would it?
sheri
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Btw the G-IV plane is now South of 97L

Link
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Is there really a 98L or are there some who are simply....L-casting?


There is.. look at post 2058.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
2071. cg2916
Quoting JLPR2:
97L looks like a bird here


Wow, you're right!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


98L for those who do not see it on the NRL.


Great anticyclone causing good amount of banding and outflow.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
2069. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/98/L
MARK
20.2N/92.7W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2068. xcool
POOR East Pacific
:(
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Is there really a 98L or are there some who are simply....L-casting?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:



Link


the link doesn't work !!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


where's 98L and the other waves? Didn't realize we had another tropical wave to watch.
sheri

98L is in the Bay of Campeche, when I was referring to the west african waves I meant that we should watch if any emerging wave shows signs of development.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting FLdewey:


Even tomorrow it's going to be sunny with a light breeze in S Florida.
i know so that is why i am puzzled but when i hear there names and that they are going to a specific place that means bad news
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is this the center of circulation???



Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2062. unf97
The wave in the eastern Carribean SE of Puerto Rico won't develop in the immediate short term due to its proximity to 97L. The outflow from 97L is blowing the convective cloud tops S-SE, as indicated on satelitte imagery.

The eastern Carribean wave may have a chance of developing in a few days after whatever becomes of 97L moves off farther west and northwest.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2112 - 2062

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
28 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron