97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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2212. will45
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
2177.
DRAKOEN....

But I thought that the flight was cancelled today.no?


thats an upper level flight
Member Since: July 18, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 994
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
everyone has been talking about a possible EATL thing, but I look at all the satellites known to man and still I don't see anything...
what gives?
Still a fair amount of SAL / dry air out there. Anything spinning up is more likely to do so as it nears the ECar...

Quoting JLPR2:
What remains of the E-ATL disturbance, it was never a TW.



Also there is no TW in the eastern Caribbean, that's a piece that broke off 97L

Latest Twave is around 45W, but riding up near 15N....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22746
98L came out of no where you guys
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115509
which way is 98L moving?
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Quoting reedzone:
I believe 98L will go with a Orange Code 30% to start with, then if it continues to organize overnight, may go to 60-70% Code Red by 2 a.m. (That's my prediction)


I think they could go even higher than 30%. I'd say orange 50%...perhaps even code red is possible.
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GREAT! I blog about 97l and now 98l is in my back yard. Lol. I'll update it in a bit when my head stops spinning. And after the housework. After my meds kick in. Lol.
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Quoting bwt1982:
RIP 97L! I was hoping it would hold together long enough to get us a little rain in Central Florida. Its bone dry here in the middle of the rainy season. Now with 97l fizziling out we may net get the rain after all. With 97l winding down we can now turn out attention to 98l.




RIP Caster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115509
I see no reason why 98L shouldnt be red at the 8pm TWO.

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Quoting Drakoen:


It's the NOAA G-IV they are currently south of 97L


ok thanks.
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2201. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Hong Kong Observatory

** WTSS20 VHHH 212246 ***

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 212100 UTC, TYPHOON CHANTHU (1003) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE ONE ONE
POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

Signal Warning 3 still enforced.
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2200. SLU
The overall structure of 98L looks great but if anything much is going to happen with it, it's going to have to happen quickly.

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Based upon water vapor imagery, the upper level low that has been impeding Invest 97L has begun to move quickly towards the west and weak anticyclonic flow has begun to move over the southern portion of the system. Seems like the upper level conditions are starting to slowly become more favorable for development in the next couple days. We may be seeing the window for some development begin to open for Invest 97L.
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2198. bwt1982
RIP 97L! I was hoping it would hold together long enough to get us a little rain in Central Florida. Its bone dry here in the middle of the rainy season. Now with 97l fizziling out we may net get the rain after all. With 97l winding down we can now turn out attention to 98l.
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Quoting tropics21:
No we do not have a 98L just someones hypecasting


Fail..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24602
2196. Drakoen
It is going to be a very very interesting update from the NHC at 8pm
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Does anyone know how many models actually exist, b/c I know like the GFDL, HWRF and all those "popular" ones but there seems like there are so maaaaany
just curious thanks
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I believe 98L will go with a Orange Code 30% to start with, then if it continues to organize overnight, may go to 60-70% Code Red by 2 a.m. (That's my prediction)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting extreme236:
Hopefully they can schedule a recon flight into 98L.
Very true. How long does it take them to get ready?
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Quoting btwntx08:
wouldnt be surpised if 98L goes striaght to red at 8 pm anyone agree??
Is the BOC entity destined to head toward the west or could it come north?
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2189. Drakoen
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
2177.
DRAKOEN....

But I thought that the flight was cancelled today.no?


It's the NOAA G-IV they are currently south of 97L
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Hopefully they can schedule a recon flight into 98L.
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Quoting btwntx08:
wouldnt be surpised if 98L goes striaght to red at 8 pm anyone agree??
i am thinking orange 50 %
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Quoting btwntx08:
wouldnt be surpised if 98L goes striaght to red at 8 pm anyone agree??



i do
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115509
Quoting patrikdude2:


Look at purple model . LOL

Whoever was holding the purple crayon must have been a little off...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2184. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
what model is the purple.. it seems lost.
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2177.
DRAKOEN....

But I thought that the flight was cancelled today.no?
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the E PAC is Dead has a door
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115509
2180. JLPR2
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

LOL I meant that everyone hyped the Disturbance from CV so much that it killed itself...and your image shows the scene of the crime...


ha! Now I get it. XD
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like a developing TD tapping into the Pacific.



Agreed. I don't think the NHC is going to be as conservative with this as people think.
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you mean to tell me that everyone was paying attention to 97l and then boom here comes 98l omg thats crazy. so where is the crow for those that said cut the numbers? bbq crow?
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2177. Drakoen
Recon dropsonde south of 97L is finding winds out of the west around 905mb...but easterlies closer to the surface. Perhaps something trying to work it's way down to the surface


Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1010mb (Surface) 90° (from the E) 7 knots (8 mph) 931mb 15° (from the NNE) 1 knots (1 mph)
913mb 285° (from the WNW) 10 knots (12 mph)
905mb 270° (from the W) 15 knots (17 mph)
889mb 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph)
850mb 235° (from the SW) 24 knots (28 mph)
818mb 230° (from the SW) 22 knots (25 mph)
763mb 250° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
716mb 230° (from the SW) 11 knots (13 mph)
590mb 320° (from the NW) 1 knots (1 mph)
293mb 0° (from the N) 0 knots (0 mph)
269mb 170° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
250mb 155° (from the SSE) 19 knots (22 mph)
208mb 175° (from the S) 18 knots (21 mph)
186mb 150° (from the SSE) 16 knots (18 mph)
172mb 165° (from the SSE) 10 knots (12 mph)
161mb 170° (from the S) 18 knots (21 mph)
155mb 125° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
148mb 165° (from the SSE) 29 knots (33 mph)

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Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Check out this WV loop. It clearly shows the ULL finally gettin out of the way of 97L, which is why thunderstorms are finally building near the "center." The big question will be if the ULL will continue to get out of the way at this rate. If it does, conditions will gradually become more favorable and I would expect 97L to become TS Bonnie by tomorrow night. However, if 97L moves at the same pace as the ULL we may never see a named system out of 97L.
exactly but i think 97L has slowed down considerably still over the turks and caicos and its been there since midday
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Quoting JLPR2:


How come? Thats good news, one disturbance less. :D

LOL I meant that everyone hyped the Disturbance from CV so much that it killed itself...and your image shows the scene of the crime...
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2173. Grothar
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Looks like a developing TD tapping into the Pacific.

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2171. cg2916
Quoting patrikdude2:


Look at purple model . LOL


Wow, it must be drunk.
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Quoting whipster:


Believe it or not, people do live in those areas.


yes I know... thats why I said it would be UNLIKELY that it WOULDN'T affect anyone jajajaja
=)
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2169. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 212200 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CHANTHU 1003 (1003) INITIAL TIME 212200 UTC
00HR 20.4N 111.6E 970HPA 35M/S (70 knots)

30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H=
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Check out this WV loop. It clearly shows the ULL finally gettin out of the way of 97L, which is why thunderstorms are finally building near the "center." The big question will be if the ULL will continue to get out of the way at this rate. If it does, conditions will gradually become more favorable and I would expect 97L to become TS Bonnie by tomorrow night. However, if 97L moves at the same pace as the ULL we may never see a named system out of 97L.
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Quoting tropics21:
No we do not have a 98L just someones hypecasting
wrong take a look at the navy site
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Quoting reedzone:
Very interesting to note on the newest CIMMS shear map.. Look at the curve of light wind shear near 97L, which btw is now under 10-20 knots form what it looks.. It looks like (if you go by frames) the area of light wind shear is pushing the heavier shears along with the ULL westward. This should make conditions good for development of 97L, but would it be TD3 or TD4 or Bonnie or Colin? Let's see what surprises 98L can bring..

CIMMS shear map




note that wind shear map may be a little overe doing it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115509
Quoting HurricaneGeek:


yeah as long as they both aren't going to affect anyone....which w/ these 2 seems rather unlikely


Believe it or not, people do live in those areas.
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
2162. Grothar
Quoting tropics21:
No we do not have a 98L just someones hypecasting


Navy just put 98L up!
Post in a few minutes
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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