97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 4462 - 4412

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

4462. gator23
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:


"K" meaning KATRINA???? I've been stating all along how this thing is reminding me of Katrina... I hope Bonnie isnt related in anyway!!!

Florida casters get a bad rep on here but these Katrina casters are worse.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
Yeah, its too early for gulf coast, but 97L is beating the shear and the ULL that was causing 30-40 knots is elongating and being pushed out.

check it out - Link


Quoting hurrkat05:
guys calm down we may have bonnie out there this morning but look at south fla and the fla keys the way she is moving shear 30 t0 40 knots...bonnie could be in for a very rough ride..still think with those hostile conditions its going to be a rainmaker nothing else..so people would not get to excited right now on the gulf coast..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
dry air to the east slowly breaking down. looking at the water vapor image...the one thing to note is how hot the waters will be as the TD moves through the keys...

i expect that it will reach cat 3 status before getting in the GOM...then BOOMTIME
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
Wasn't it hurrkat/stormkat/stormtop who said we wouldn't see anything til August 10th?


Yep, but of course stormtop's use to crow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I had a funny notion that 2010 would be the first season with a hurricane every month has that ever happened?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Not trying to wishcast, scare people, as conditions are totally different but the last time a storm formed where TD3/Bonnie formed was Katrina. Won't be another Katrina though, conditions are totally different.
Right! I posted that yesterday actually. Katrina formed at 75.5W and 23.3N with 1007 mb and 35 mph winds, compare that to TD3 in a few hours. Surrounding environment, etc. are different however. Still warrants close watching though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4456. fmbill
Quoting hurrkat05:
guys calm down we may have bonnie out there this morning but look at south fla and the fla keys the way she is moving shear 30 t0 40 knots...bonnie could be in for a very rough ride..still think with those hostile conditions its going to be a rainmaker nothing else..so people would not get to excited right now on the gulf coast..


"Calm-caster" :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:
Don't panic. It is a small system right now. The most that people will see are some strong rains, probably a little wind. Just watch the advisories, because it has a number of hours over water yet and could get a little stronger. That will be the time to worry.



... Bittercaster?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4453. tea3781
I think I see the center on on the southwest side of the deepest convection. In order to gain strength it is going to have to move under the the deepest convection (to the North) or start developing more convection around its current center. Im still calling for a landfall between Miami and West Palm Beach
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Folks, I'm sure others noticed but some DWH work was halted yesterday. In the very early hours this morning some vessels of opportunity were ordered to halt operations, and boom was being removed as well. Seems some knew something was likely to happen. They're not reading this blog are they? LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4451. Grothar
Don't panic. It is a small system right now. The most that people will see are some strong rains, probably a little wind. Just watch the advisories, because it has a number of hours over water yet and could get a little stronger. That will be the time to worry.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Remember how Joe Bastardi gave up on 97L yesterday? Imagine how he must feel this morning.


Well, it seems to me half the people here "gave up on" 98L/TD3/Bonnie or Colin yesterday. Then again, forecasting is nowhere near an exact science, so there's no shame in being wrong some of the time. (To me, Bastardi's only real weakness is his inability or unwillingness to distinguish weather with climate...but he's far from the only one to do that.)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow what a day it is turning out to be. TD 3 has formed sooned to be TS Bonnie. 98L is kicking steam in the bay of campeche. there is a EATL tropical wave which is showing signs that it could be a potential threat a few days down the road. there appears to be some form of cyclonic turning and the conditions in advance of the wave will be conducive for further development
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gator23:

no surprised since you live in Palm Bay

KENT'S LAW IS NOW IN EFFECT:

I THINK IT GOING TO HIT(INSERT YOUR CURRENT LOCATION)

Yeah because I see Palm Bay Melbourne on what I wrote...
Check a map
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4447. scott39
Quoting msgambler:
Ohh Derrik whatthisname?...LOL
not him, I like Kelly -- He looks like Bart Simpson!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
This place is going to be a madhouse later.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Remember how Joe Bastardi gave up on 97L yesterday? Imagine how he must feel this morning.


lol, yeah. He's probably hiding @ Accuweather.com pro. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4442. scott39
Quoting whipster:


Maybe because it is a TD now.
yea----maybe
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Wasn't it hurrkat/stormkat/stormtop who said we wouldn't see anything til August 10th?
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Quoting 7544:
models will go back to the north where they org. were lol looks like the cmc nailed this one on where it will go not sure on strenght yet it did have a strong ts or cat couple of days ago so ill go with a stronger ts at this point
I must say I agree. As implausible as it looked at the time, the CMC may have nailed this one a few days ago. If so that model also had development about 48 hours later in the same vicinity and tracked that storm through the middle of fl to the north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
I keep hearing TD and TS on the news here in Orlando. I think a jump to Bonnie is real based on what I seeing last night with surface obs. ENE and NE winds were howling in the Turks last night.


Jeff, I can't find anything that shows a jump to the North, or that its not going thru the straits.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
We are hoping for some rain out of this system in Key West....we are still way below normal YTD.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
yea channel 15. John ED is the master!
Ohh Derrik whatthisname?...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The Big Picture.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
Reed, I am interested in hearing your thoughts on the track as well....Is the intensification (if it continues) enough to pull models, but more importantly track back into south/southeast FL?



I gotta look at the steering for a TS and Hurricane just in case it does the unthinkable. Also gotta check the latest models..
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
Quoting Goldenblack:
I agree, but until we have evidence of such...and out of respect, lets not say the K word too much?

LOL, agreed!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Remember how Joe Bastardi gave up on 97L yesterday? Imagine how he must feel this morning.


He's used to that feeling I'm sure.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
Tropical Depression Three.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


There's a small, but nice anticyclone over it now.. Not screaming out the "K", but with those water temps and good conditions, anything is possible. South Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas needs to closely monitor what this storm does in the next 24-36 hours.


"K" meaning KATRINA???? I've been stating all along how this thing is reminding me of Katrina... I hope Bonnie isnt related in anyway!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4430. est1986
Chances of it making landfall somewhere on Louisiana coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Florida Keys folks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good morning everyone, again. I'm back from my jaunt to the coast (a whopping 4 miles away lol) and hopefully in a little while should be able to post some photos from earlier this a.m. Meanwhile, weather here is breezy with clear partly cloudy skies. It was a little hazy when I first got out this a.m. but now the skies are the typical summer cerulean....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21487
Remember how Joe Bastardi gave up on 97L yesterday? Imagine how he must feel this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Don't blame you there. I too was talking short term....don't like the looks after that


Quoting extreme236:


IMO I see this tracking through the straights or perhaps moving over extreme SFL. After that though I don't even wanna pick a spot.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4423. scott39
Quoting msgambler:
Who are you listening to on Mobile tv. I haven't listened to them since John Ed left.
yea channel 15. John ED is the master!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6732
Reed, I am interested in hearing your thoughts on the track as well....Is the intensification (if it continues) enough to pull models, but more importantly track back into south/southeast FL?

Quoting reedzone:


Later this afternoon.. I'm in good confidence that when I get home from work, Bonnie will be here, maybe TD4.. so much for the "July bust"
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
guys accuweather has it going under mia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
My local news here in Mobile just said 97L is a TD. I heard it twice!
Who are you listening to on Mobile tv. I haven't listened to them since John Ed left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting extreme236:
Models kind of dropping the ball with these systems.
Yeah, I don't it will be that south as the models say. I will have to agree with TWC on this one for a SFLA landfall.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Goldenblack:
extreme, what are your thoughts with the track of 97L...(soon to be at least TD3)?



IMO I see this tracking through the straights or perhaps moving over extreme SFL. After that though I don't even wanna pick a spot.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
4417. 7544
models will go back to the north where they org. were lol looks like the cmc nailed this one on where it will go not sure on strenght yet it did have a strong ts or cat couple of days ago so ill go with a stronger ts at this point
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
825 AM EDT THU JUL 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE THE DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS.

1. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BAHAMAS INDICATE
THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS HAS
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A CLOSED CIRCULATION HAS FORMED.
ADVISORIES ON A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
INITIATED AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
INCLUDE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting scott39:
My local news here in Mobile just said 97L is a TD. I heard it twice!


Maybe because it is a TD now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4414. gator23
Quoting extreme236:
Models kind of dropping the ball with these systems.

nope me and jeff have been saying it for 3 days the GFDL and HWRF had this nailed both on forecast and intensity. Like I said yesterday you dont bench your best players and you dont throw out your most accurate models.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2162
I think 98L will be TD#4 but nothing more
the NHC said yesterday only 40% chance of development in 48 hours I want a refund
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4412. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
03L/TD/L
MARK
21.4N/72.9W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 4462 - 4412

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.