97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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2262. Detrina
Where is 98L I haven't been able to find anything other than 97..thanks! lol NM thanks Taz:)
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Quoting stormhunter23:
Hurricane Hunters Currently Investigating 97L
Link




thats noaa
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Quoting largeeyes:
good grief. Where is 98L?



BOC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
NOAA's Gulfstream IV-SP Currently Investigating 97L
Link
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good grief. Where is 98L?
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Quoting Tazmanian:



now where i have seen this befor


In July? I haven't seen a sight like this in two years.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


98L looks like Texas-Mexico border area again...


probably...i am assuming anyways.
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Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (Surface) 110° (from the ESE) 23 knots (26 mph)
979mb 120° (from the ESE) 26 knots (30
mph)
954mb 115° (from the ESE) 21 knots (24 mph)
850mb 120° (from the ESE) 16 knots (18 mph)
832mb 115° (from the ESE) 17 knots (20 mph)
817mb 135° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
768mb 115° (from the ESE) 13 knots (15 mph)
736mb 145° (from the SE) 12 knots (14 mph)
708mb 125° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
638mb 160° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
609mb 150° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
584mb 185° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
558mb 170° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
520mb 185° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
507mb 170° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
494mb 180° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
481mb 215° (from the SW) 15 knots (17 mph)
434mb 185° (from the S) 13 knots (15 mph)
398mb 180° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
376mb 205° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
362mb 180° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)
336mb 220° (from the SW) 15 knots (17 mph)
303mb 210° (from the SSW) 18 knots (21 mph)
265mb 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
211mb 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
188mb 225° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
167mb 275° (from the W) 19 knots (22 mph)
162mb 275° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph)
155mb 180° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If I had to say for 98L.. 50%.
For 97L.. 50%.

I'll probably be wrong though.


hard not to be wrong when dealing with 2 invests.... but I think 97L 40 and 98L 60
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97L might have some favorable conditions for development over the next 24-36 hours. Tonight and tomorrow morning are crucial for 97L's development.

98L scares me. It just popped out of nowhere, it has a developing anticyclone overhead, and water temperatures are high. I am not sure whether or not the TCHP values have restored themselves since Alex's passage. Anybody have a good TCHP map?
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when will the data from the Gulfstream jet that is around 97L be put into models?
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Quoting Drakoen:
The Tale of Two Invest




now where i have seen this befor
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
2248. Drakoen
The Tale of Two Invest

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If I had to say for 98L.. 50%.
For 97L.. 50%.

I'll probably be wrong though.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
here'sa still of 98L AVN sorry guys wwas asleep at the wheel didn't realize navy had posted it My Bad
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Quoting Drakoen:


Me neither


me neither... I think Bonnie by morning is possible at the rate its organizing
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Quoting Ossqss:
Interesting stuff at the end of the run towards Sat. 18z will probably change :)

Clickable for longer run






I think Levi touched on that in his video.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


You think the next update will reflect 98l?



may be
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Quoting weatherman12345:
Is the ULL moving away from 97L??


see post 2224
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Quoting Tazmanian:
am looking forwod too what 98L mode runs say


You think the next update will reflect 98l?
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
2237. Grothar
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i say


97L back too %60

98L %60 or %70
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Quoting TexasHurricane:


not sure...just got here a few minutes ago and found out about it.


98L looks like Texas-Mexico border area again...
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
Developing upper-level high aloft.
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am looking forwod too what 98L mode runs say
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Dr.Masters hopefully you can update your blog tonight.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


In Houston here... Has NOAA acknowledged 98L yet? I dont see it anywhere but I am still novice at best!!


not sure...just got here a few minutes ago and found out about it.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Northern Mexico again?




so if it moveing NW that would put 98L some where in TX
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114075
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I see no reason why 98L shouldnt be red at the 8pm TWO.

Politics.
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Right now, I'm in good confidence 97L will stay at orange do to the structured organization of the invest. Staying at 50%..
Really in all honesty, tonight will tell the tale for both invests.
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Based upon water vapor imagery, the upper level low that has been impeding Invest 97L has begun to move quickly towards the west and weak anticyclonic flow has begun to move over the southern portion of the system. Seems like the upper level conditions are starting to slowly become more favorable for development in the next couple days. We may be seeing the window for some development begin to open for Invest 97L.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


In Houston here... Has NOAA acknowledged 98L yet? I dont see it anywhere but I am still novice at best!!


Navy NRL
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2222. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
I see no reason why 98L shouldnt be red at the 8pm TWO.



Me neither
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


NW.


Northern Mexico again?
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
Quoting will45:


thats an upper level flight


ok got it, thanks
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2219. bwt1982
Quoting Tazmanian:




RIP Caster


LOL!!! yeah with this one I am for sure!
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
what model is the purple.. it seems lost.

No offence , but its called ACM model, I can't name it here. Its quite old and new at the same time.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7506
Quoting TexasHurricane:
which way is 98L moving?


In Houston here... Has NOAA acknowledged 98L yet? I dont see it anywhere but I am still novice at best!!
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
Quoting TexasHurricane:
which way is 98L moving?


NW.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23016
2215. Drakoen
HWRF 97L 18z

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2214. Ossqss
Interesting stuff at the end of the run towards Sat. 18z will probably change :)

Clickable for longer run




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2212. will45
Quoting HurricaneGeek:
2177.
DRAKOEN....

But I thought that the flight was cancelled today.no?


thats an upper level flight
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.