97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Let us all hope the Rio Grande does not get any more rain, they are still flooded.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2311. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
F5... F5.... F5....

What, not TWO yet?


yeah 40% and 30%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TriMOPER:

Thanks, fyi which models does NOAA run?


The GFS and the NAM. The NOAA owns the NCEP which produces the model runs.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
97L: 40%

98l: 30%
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Hmm...only 30% for 98L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
00
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My neighbor just got home from the corner tavern. He said a hurricane is headed for the Gulf and they are shutting down all oil spill operations and are heading for the hills. Is this true. What should we do?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2304. tkeith
Quoting BahaHurican:
F5... F5.... F5....

What, not TWO yet?
NHC is having to multi-task Baha :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH



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F5... F5.... F5....

What, not TWO yet?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
I'm not a newbie here but I am a novice. I am finding it quite amusing how many self proclaimed forcasters are saying " has the best banding since Alex." Question: Did't Alex form in like June? I think any decent looking Invest or Storm from now till October would have better banding. My opinion.
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Quoting cchsweatherman:
To clear up the confusion, NOAA has sent a missioned GIV-4 plane which provides the NOAA with data from all layers in the atmosphere. This is done to provide more accurate data to input into their computer models. THIS IS NOT A HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT!!! Sometimes with systems close to land such as this, the NOAA likes to send out a plane to sample the atmosphere.

Thanks, fyi which models does NOAA run?
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Quoting Acere25:
X, they are both exploding


I see that!!! going to be an interesting night... Those poor folks on the Texas-Mex border are just in the zone this year!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2297. JamesSA
Wow! 98L. It is forming just like Alex did... We were watching an area of convection amidst a larger area of disorganized thunderstorms... then all of a sudden an area the size of the GOM is organized into a spiral pattern and rotating.

I wasn't expecting this one.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2296. angiest
NWS Houston/Galveston talking about 97L:

Some forecast uncertainty exists late in the weekend and into next
week as details will hinge on what the tropical wave currently
approaching the Bahamas ends up doing. Hurricane models generally
take it nwwd toward the eastern Gulf Coast between New Orleans and the
Florida Panhandle. However...GFS/UKMET/ECMWF/NAM/Canadian/NOGAPS all
keep this feature moving westward through the Gulf as an open wave under
the subtropical ridge.
Considering nothing has yet developed feel
the best course of action at this point is to trend the forecast with
the above models
. Have nudged probability of precipitation up beginning Sunday and into
next week - and probably not quite as much as eventually needed
but timing as to when we get on the eastern side of the wave axis is
still questionable. European model (ecmwf) is showing a wet Sunday while
Canadian/GFS showing better coverage beginning Monday. Later shifts
will need to tweak as forecast confidence increases. 47


Will be interesting to see how they incorporate 98L into this.
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2294. jeebsa
To many factors are prohibiting 97L from forming. I would say a rain event for Florida and than ULL pull it completely apart over FL. If it stays on the predicted course. Winds in Palm City, Fl. tonight 15 to 20 and mostly cloudy. We seem to be stuck in between all of these lows and highs.Not very conducive for Tropical development. Have to wait until mid Aug. I guess.
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
To clear up the confusion, NOAA has sent a missioned GIV-4 plane which provides the NOAA with data from all layers in the atmosphere. This is done to provide more accurate data to input into their computer models. THIS IS NOT A HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT!!! Sometimes with systems close to land such as this, the NOAA likes to send out a plane to sample the atmosphere.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
2291. 7544
97l gaining new con on the sw side now ull speeds away should be good dmax tonight
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2290. Crawls
Quoting TriMOPER:
newbie question, does the NOAA jet get info that is used in any of the models


Yes, HH data is factored into the models
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Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
what model is the purple.. it seems lost.
NHC_BAMM
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Both invests looking better right now.

Bonnie....and Colin within the next week?

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Quoting tkeith:


UFO caster...



heh heh
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
Quoting Acere25:
Finally, 97L, finally, it certainly took her long enough, didn't it, y'all?


????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2284. tkeith
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys the Hurricane Hunters got call off for today that is noaa or a ufo flying in 97L right now


UFO caster...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8937
Quoting Tazmanian:
guys the Hurricane Hunters got call off for today that is noaa or a ufo flying in 97L right now
Quoting BahaHurican:
Read up, trina. Or search the blog for 98L. Images and everything.


I see the action on the infrared.. I was just trying see if NOAA acknowledged it yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes12:
Does NOAA's results reflect the next TWO?



may be i think the nhc may wait in tell noaa and see what they find
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
newbie question, does the NOAA jet get info that is used in any of the models
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2280. xcool
98l 97l ;) look good
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Does NOAA's results reflect the next TWO?
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be back later...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
If I had to say for 98L.. 50%.
For 97L.. 50%.

I'll probably be wrong though.
Naw Ted think You nailed it I feel the same
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2276. bakers
98L now has the best chance of developing and will be a tropical storm within 24 hrs. the best banding features ive seen since alex. banding is the best indicator to look for on satelite in cyclone development.
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98 convection is firing up.
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
Quoting Tazmanian:




thats noaa

Yeah Sorry my bad
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guys the Hurricane Hunters got call off for today that is noaa or a ufo flying in 97L right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
Quoting Tazmanian:



the the 50th time 98L is in BOC

lol
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Read up, trina. Or search the blog for 98L. Images and everything.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting largeeyes:
good grief. Where is 98L?


Southern BOC
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Quoting stormhunter23:
Hurricane Hunters Currently Investigating 97L
Link


Isn't that NASA?
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:


1014mb that to high to be a tropical d yet.




your not even redding that right
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
Quoting Detrina:
Where is 98L I haven't been able to find anything other than 97..thanks!



the the 50th time 98L is in BOC
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115436
Quoting Tazmanian:
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (Surface) 110° (from the ESE) 23 knots (26 mph)
979mb 120° (from the ESE) 26 knots (30
mph)
954mb 115° (from the ESE) 21 knots (24 mph)
850mb 120° (from the ESE) 16 knots (18 mph)
832mb 115° (from the ESE) 17 knots (20 mph)
817mb 135° (from the SE) 15 knots (17 mph)
768mb 115° (from the ESE) 13 knots (15 mph)
736mb 145° (from the SE) 12 knots (14 mph)
708mb 125° (from the SE) 10 knots (12 mph)
638mb 160° (from the SSE) 11 knots (13 mph)
609mb 150° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
584mb 185° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
558mb 170° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
520mb 185° (from the S) 11 knots (13 mph)
507mb 170° (from the S) 12 knots (14 mph)
494mb 180° (from the S) 10 knots (12 mph)
481mb 215° (from the SW) 15 knots (17 mph)
434mb 185° (from the S) 13 knots (15 mph)
398mb 180° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
376mb 205° (from the SSW) 14 knots (16 mph)
362mb 180° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)
336mb 220° (from the SW) 15 knots (17 mph)
303mb 210° (from the SSW) 18 knots (21 mph)
265mb 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
211mb 240° (from the WSW) 13 knots (15 mph)
188mb 225° (from the SW) 12 knots (14 mph)
167mb 275° (from the W) 19 knots (22 mph)
162mb 275° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph)
155mb 180° (from the S) 15 knots (17 mph)


1014mb that to high to be a tropical d yet.
Member Since: July 4, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 965
Quoting Drakoen:
The Tale of Two Invest


De ja vu.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2263. angiest
Quoting TexasHurricane:


probably...i am assuming anyways.


A few days ago CMC did have two different systems hitting S Florida (97L?) and TX/MX border area (98L?).
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2262. Detrina
Where is 98L I haven't been able to find anything other than 97..thanks! lol NM thanks Taz:)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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