97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting tkeith:
2317. JoshE 6:35 PM CDT on July 21, 2010

you and your computer are gonna get real cozy this season :)

and WU re-hab dont work...


Well, it works between Dec 1 and mid May....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting cchsweatherman:
To clear up the confusion, NOAA has sent a missioned GIV-4 plane which provides the NOAA with data from all layers in the atmosphere. This is done to provide more accurate data to input into their computer models. THIS IS NOT A HURRICANE HUNTER FLIGHT!!! Sometimes with systems close to land such as this, the NOAA likes to send out a plane to sample the atmosphere.

This makes very good sense. I notice they were flying to the north of the system. They are probably observing the impact of a ULL on a developing systems at differing levels.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
i think we will see a HH fight for 98L for thursday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting wfyweather:


looks like they want to make sure its gonna keep organizing before they jump the gun... I personally think 60% at the next two and a td or ts by sunrise
Sounded more like they didn't think there was enough there to warrant the higher confidence level. Like they don't expect it do do anything right now...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21150
The ULL is steering away from 97L, give it time before you all RIP this one.. sheesh.. so impatient!
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
They are BOTH firing up now. Tomorrow will be interesting.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
98L looks more organized than 97L does


Because 98L has..
A) good organized convection
B) Convection sustaining into DMIN and increasing.
C) Great conditions, anti-cyclone over head
D) no dry air.

Nothing is stopping 98L where as 97L's struggling.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
i think 98L will end up winding this one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
Quoting JoshE:
This blog is so addicting that I finally joined (my first post). I bet there are a lot of people who read and don’t post.
I just wanted to say that during Alex, all of you sucked me in causing a great loss of sleep as I became addicted to pushing that F5. I live here in Houston and the information provided on this site helps a lot of people to prepare before getting stuck in long gas lines, etc… Keep up the great work and keep it real.
Welcome Josh. It gets kinda rowdy in here from time to time, but it's not a bad spot. And I bet a lot of current bloggers could tell as similar tale to yours...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21150
Well although 97L right now is not looking so good, earlier today it was in the shape of a square.... I don't know a lot about tropical meteorology, but a square cyclone, I've never seen.
With that said, I do see that it is rounding out it's edges a little more now. What that means, I'm not sure. But it looks like 97L is getting itself together a little more now. Just a little.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
98L looks more organized than 97L does
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7337
2351. CaicosRetiredSailor
11:41 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Interesting...
Enchantment Of The Sea - Passenger ship - Callsign C6FZ7

is showing up on the WUndermap between Turks & Caicos and Haiti with Wx data labeled Buoy C6FZ7

BUOYC6FZ7
lat: 20.80
lon: -72.30

Wind: SE at 26km/h
Pressure: 1012hPa
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5995
2349. CybrTeddy
11:41 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting Acere25:


Right, and 98L is? ROFL. Good one, Mike.


Uhh.. yes.
Link
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
2348. Hurricanes101
11:41 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
wouldnt be the first time a ULL did not do as forecasted and ended up killing a storm

but it appears the NHC is no longer confident that the ULL will move away from 97L enough to allow it to organize
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7337
2347. extreme236
11:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


It's what I expected, an orange code for both. However, 97L has become better organized today. Again, tonight will tell the tale of both invests.


Yup. We'll see if 97L can perform better overnight.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2345. reedzone
11:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting extreme236:
Hmm...only 30% for 98L


It's what I expected, an orange code for both. However, 97L has become better organized today. Again, tonight will tell the tale of both invests.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7340
2344. stormpetrol
11:40 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting tkeith:


UFO caster...

LMAO! A good one
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7631
2343. CybrTeddy
11:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Kimberlan and Pasch are notoriously conservative. Good call by the NHC though, play it cautious.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
2342. BahaHurican
11:39 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah 40% and 30%
Yeah, showed up on the very next F5 after that.... lol

Fairly reasonable forecasts, IMO, and very happy-making for me on the 97L end.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21150
2339. Stormchaser2007
11:38 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Not much too look at.

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
2338. HarleyStormDude52
11:38 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting JoshE:
This blog is so addicting that I finally joined (my first post). I bet there are a lot of people who read and don’t post.
I just wanted to say that during Alex, all of you sucked me in causing a great loss of sleep as I became addicted to pushing that F5. I live here in Houston and the information provided on this site helps a lot of people to prepare before getting stuck in long gas lines, etc… Keep up the great work and keep it real.


you and both.. I got hooked watching the "big guy" on the sever weather webcam site during aalex.. not that in itself was so spectacular, but it did absolutely make me want to learn more.. I have always just been a "radar" addict".. Now I guess Im hopelessly addicted to WU.. There are alot of people a whole bunch smarter than me on here... I try not to ask too many stupid questions,,
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
2337. xcool
11:38 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
HA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15618
2336. RJT185
11:38 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Does the Rio Grande have the same gauges and accessible info as others major rivers in the US?
Member Since: August 31, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 252
2335. Tazmanian
11:37 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1012mb (Surface) 60° (from the ENE) 28 knots (32 mph)
984mb 55° (from the NE) 34 knots (39 mph)
910mb 55° (from the NE) 37 knots (43 mph)
895mb 55° (from the NE) 34 knots (39 mph)
850mb 65° (from the ENE) 36 knots (41
mph)
703mb 45° (from the NE) 25 knots (29 mph)
645mb 60° (from the ENE) 20 knots (23 mph)
591mb 25° (from the NNE) 15 knots (17 mph)
573mb 40° (from the NE) 12 knots (14 mph)
547mb 5° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
452mb 65° (from the ENE) 2 knots (2 mph)
417mb 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
411mb 95° (from the E) 13 knots (15 mph)
323mb 145° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
289mb 145° (from the SE) 16 knots (18 mph)
265mb 205° (from the SSW) 21 knots (24 mph)
220mb 205° (from the SSW) 33 knots (38 mph)
174mb 200° (from the SSW) 19 knots (22 mph)
164mb 165° (from the SSE) 17 knots (20 mph)
159mb 165° (from the SSE) 20 knots (23 mph)
154mb 180° (from the S) 17 knots (20 mph)
147mb 260° (from the W) 12 knots (14 mph
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
2333. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:37 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
yup it's like a quicknick when posting Tropical Weather Outlooks/Advisories
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44424
2332. Baybuddy
11:37 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes12:


Isn't that NASA?


Air Force
Member Since: June 26, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1115
2331. Hurricanes101
11:37 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
well that was anti-climatic lol


Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7337
2330. tkeith
11:37 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
2317. JoshE 6:35 PM CDT on July 21, 2010

you and your computer are gonna get real cozy this season :)

and WU re-hab dont work...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8923
2329. Tazmanian
11:36 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
two caster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
2328. flhurricanesurvivor
11:36 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Welcome to the blog Josh
Member Since: September 21, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 156
2327. TriMOPER
11:36 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting cchsweatherman:


The GFS and the NAM. The NOAA owns the NCEP which produces the model runs.


Thank you for the info...back to lurking...
Member Since: September 4, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 25
2326. CybrTeddy
11:36 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Its probable that if organization continues we could see higher percentages for 98L at 2 am.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23486
2325. bakers
11:36 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting msgambler:
I'm not a newbie here but I am a novice. I am finding it quite amusing how many self proclaimed forcasters are saying " has the best banding since Alex." Question: Did't Alex form in like June? I think any decent looking Invest or Storm from now till October would have better banding. My opinion.
97L HAS NO BANDING FEATURES AT ALL AND THIS IS LATE JULY. BANDING DOES NOT CORRELATE WITH POINTS IN THE SEASON
Member Since: June 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 45
2324. Stormchaser2007
11:36 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Wow.

40 and 30?
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15776
2321. angiest
11:36 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
My neighbor just got home from the corner tavern. He said a hurricane is headed for the Gulf and they are shutting down all oil spill operations and are heading for the hills. Is this true. What should we do?


Sounds like he was enjoying the tavern a bit. :)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2320. miajrz
11:35 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
two up
Member Since: June 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
2319. patrikdude2
11:35 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting weatherman12345:
Is the ULL moving away from 97L??
yes.
look here >> Link
Member Since: July 20, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 225
2318. wfyweather
11:35 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
97L got bump down too %40 98L has %30


looks like they want to make sure its gonna keep organizing before they jump the gun... I personally think 60% at the next two and a td or ts by sunrise
Member Since: July 12, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 422
2317. JoshE
11:35 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
This blog is so addicting that I finally joined (my first post). I bet there are a lot of people who read and don’t post.
I just wanted to say that during Alex, all of you sucked me in causing a great loss of sleep as I became addicted to pushing that F5. I live here in Houston and the information provided on this site helps a lot of people to prepare before getting stuck in long gas lines, etc… Keep up the great work and keep it real.
Member Since: July 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5
2316. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
11:34 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
ABNT20 KNHC 212331
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH. DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS...PORTIONS OF CUBA AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44424
2315. Tazmanian
11:34 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
97L got bump down too %40 98L has %30
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114649
2314. 7544
11:34 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
did not ull just detach itself from 97l looks how conv is firing up now
Member Since: May 6, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6676
2313. BahaHurican
11:34 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...

Wow. Down to 40%.... looks like PR and the VIs may have -just may- seen the worst of 97L.... we can hope.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21150
2312. bohonkweatherman
11:34 PM GMT on July 21, 2010
Let us all hope the Rio Grande does not get any more rain, they are still flooded.
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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