97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting 7544:
did not ull just detach itself from 97l looks how conv is firing up now

It's origin is a detached piece of 97L..
At one point there was a line of convergence at about 16N between 60 and 64 west while the convection of 97L was stuck over PR and the VI's
it is all on ASCATS and sat pics from the last 2 days... It got left behind last night
Lets see how it does on it's own...
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Quoting Tazmanian:




97L never got out of 60% that one some one make that up in the two before the NHC posted the new two

Here ya go Taz.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED NEAR THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW HUNDRED
MILES...IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA...AND OVER THE
ADJACENT WATERS OF THE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
ALTHOUGH A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
OR A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND LIKELY AFFECT
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...EASTERN CUBA...THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS...AND THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

It got to 70% mate!
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2410. tkeith
Quoting msgambler:
tkeith, they are still scratching their heads on whether to scratch their heads.
lol
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
2408. tkeith
Quoting Patrap:


I gave up on following that circus tkeith.

I hear ya..
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
Quoting tkeith:
2388. Patrap 6:52 PM CDT on July 21, 2010

Are they still scratchin their head on whether or not to leave the containment cap on Pat?
tkeith, they are still scratching their heads on whether to scratch their heads.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
I believe that tomorrow we will have 2 depressions at minimum, and possible 2 named storms.....

I believe 98 will be a tropical storm, and 97 a TD by late afternoon tomorrow......

98 has really done an unbelievable job of organizing in the last 6-8 hours..... and with low shear, warm water, and an anticyclone moving over the storm...... all that equals Bonnie tomorrow in my opinion! In fact, I would not be surprised if 98 is a TD before sunrise tomorrow!

squiggle art anybody? LOL

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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
Miami, FL Radar no rain at all in miami because of the very dry air..no t.storms at all. i think that means dry air will go into invest 97L WHEN IS GET TO MIAMI FL.
'

yea cuz the dry air will just stay there lol *rolls eyes*
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Quoting stormpetrol:

Please don't pay much attention to what I say , it is my opinion only which I'm entitled to right or wrong, just watch , wait and see and don't forget the jerk crow if I'm wrong :), I ain't criticizing no one, not the nhc, or anybody, just stating my personal opinion, gotta have a little fun sometime.


Amen Brother... If we where all pro's then why would we even come to this website. I believe this site was designed for Discovery and learning.
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2401. tkeith
2388. Patrap 6:52 PM CDT on July 21, 2010

Are they still scratchin their head on whether or not to leave the containment cap on Pat?
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
AND WOW WE HAVE 98L

AL, 98, 2010072118, , BEST, 0, 200N, 927W, 20, 1008, DB,
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*munches on a big fat slice of crow pie.
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2398. jeebsa
It was just 4 days ago they said no tropical development is expected in the next 7 days.
Now they have a party on there hands. LOL
Member Since: June 25, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 277
2397. Patrap
(I have not been to a Tavern today)...


Henry's on Magazine is Having their 110 year Party Saturday tkeith

Anniversary this year. Owned by the same family since 1900, Henry's is celebrating eleven decades of serving beer and drinks to everyone from Lee Harvey Oswald to Eli Manning and Dr. John. Mr Henry passed away recently but his son, family and staff proudly carry on the tradition into the next century. To thank its friends--old and new--for their patronage, the bar is hosting an old fashioned New Orleans block party with free admission on Saturday July 24th at the corner of Magazine and Soniat. Music includes the 3rd Line Brass Band, John Lisi and Delta Funk , and Weathered (approx times 1:00, 3:00, and 6:00). Food will be available from Big Ed's Cochon Du Lait Pig Roas and The Jambalaya Girl's jambalaya), and lots of cold beer and beverages. Rain or shine.
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Quoting bjdsrq:


???
NHC nows says only 40% 97L becomes a TC w/ in 48 hours based on data from the NOAA flight.

Please don't pay much attention to what I say , it is my opinion only which I'm entitled to right or wrong, just watch , wait and see and don't forget the jerk crow if I'm wrong :), I ain't criticizing no one, not the nhc, or anybody, just stating my personal opinion, gotta have a little fun sometime.
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Give 97L time guys.. The ULL is just now moving away from it. Should start slowly developing tonight into tomorrow. Not ruling out a TD by tomorrow afternoon.
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My neighbor just got home from the corner tavern. He said a hurricane is headed for the Gulf and they are shutting down all oil spill operations and are heading for the hills. Is this true. What should we do?

Not quite true... Shell is shutting down Eastern GOM operations and they have put a storm cap into the main relief well for the Macondo well.

However, the government is creating needless panic over the well integrity issues on the seafloor. Of course BP is remiss in not having a way to flow since it does help with integrity BUT in a hurricane you have to find a way to keep oil out of the GOM.

I cannot believe there are folks who think putting more oil into the GOM is called for. Yes, there are potential issues with containment and parted casing but they are not as serious as the government makes up.
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2392. tkeith
Quoting Codaflow:
Actually KerryInNOLA is correct.

BP is going to make the official call tomorrow to uncap the well and evac per their 5 day pre-storm evac order, but non-essential personnel are already on their way out.
I heard the same thing here today, but as conditions change descisions change...

(I have not been to a Tavern today)...
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8936
well with out spaming my blog


this keep me going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting cchsweatherman:
After reading the NHC Outlooks, they seem like very reasonable forecasts for both systems.

For Invest 97L, the ULL that has been impeding the system has only recently begun moving toward the west gradually away from the system which means that its still imparting southerly shear on the system. Until the ULL distances itself from the system, Invest 97L probably won't develop. Even though convection has been developing and seemingly organizing, the low level structure isn't there yet.

For Invest 98L, it does have a better defined circulation than Invest 97L, but convection remains rather disorganized and spread out at this time. Broad systems like this take at least a few days to get together, just like the case was with Alex. Thats why, even though it appears better than 97L, I don't believe we will see much development.

98L will have about 2 days before it moves over Mexico.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
wouldnt be the first time a ULL did not do as forecasted and ended up killing a storm

but it appears the NHC is no longer confident that the ULL will move away from 97L enough to allow it to organize
That's the value of the upper level data they were collecting this evening.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
2388. Patrap
Quoting Codaflow:
Actually KerryInNOLA is correct.

BP is going to make the official call tomorrow to uncap the well and evac per their 5 day pre-storm evac order, but non-essential personnel are already on their way out.


Dats da Plan


NEW ORLEANS -- A storm brewing in the Caribbean brought the deep-sea effort to plug the ruptured oil well to a near standstill Wednesday just as BP was getting tantalizingly close to going in for the kill.

Work on the relief well -- now just days from completion -- was suspended, and the cap that has been keeping the oil bottled up since last week may have to be reopened, allowing crude to gush into the sea again for days, said retired Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen, the government's point man on the crisis.

"This is necessarily going to be a judgment call," said Allen, who was waiting to see how the storm developed before deciding whether to order any of the ships and crews stationed some 50 miles out in the Gulf of Mexico to head for safety.

The cluster of thunderstorms passed over Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, and forecasters said the system would probably move into the Gulf over the weekend. They gave it a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or a tropical storm by Friday.

Crews had planned to spend Wednesday and Thursday reinforcing with cement the last few feet of the relief tunnel that will be used to pump mud into the gusher and kill it once and for all. But BP put the task on hold and instead placed a temporary plug called a storm packer deep inside the tunnel, in case it has to be abandoned until the storm passes.

"What we didn't want to do is be in the middle of an operation and potentially put the relief well at some risk," BP vice president Kent Wells said.

If the work crews are evacuated, it could be two weeks before they can resume the effort to kill the well. That would upset BP's timetable, which called for finishing the relief tunnel by the end of July and plugging the blown-out well by early August.

Scientists have been scrutinizing underwater video and pressure data for days, trying to determine if the capped well is holding tight or in danger of rupturing and causing an even bigger disaster. If the storm prevents BP from monitoring the well, the cap may simply be reopened, allowing oil to spill into the water, Allen said.

BP and government scientists were meeting to discuss whether the cap could be monitored from shore.

As the storm drew closer, boat captains hired by BP for skimming duty were sent home and told they wouldn't be going back out for five or six days, said Tom Ard, president of the Orange Beach Fishing Association in Alabama.

In Florida, crews removed booms intended to protect waterways in the Panhandle from oil. High winds and storm surge could carry the booms into sensitive wetlands.

Also, Shell Oil began evacuating employees out in the Gulf.

Even if the storm does not hit the area directly, it could affect the effort to contain the oil and clean it up. Hurricane Alex stayed 500 miles away last month, yet skimming in Alabama, Mississippi and Florida was curtailed for nearly a week.

The relief tunnel extends about two miles under the seabed and is about 50 to 60 feet vertically and four feet horizontally from the ruptured well. BP plans to insert a final string of casing, or drilling pipe, cement it into place, and give it up to a week to set, before attempting to punch through to the blown-out well and kill it.
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wow guys two orange on the TWO was expected the BOC has a better chance so maybe Bonnie and Collin in the making LOL
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Quoting bjdsrq:


Is that supposed to be a good thing, or a flag to be blocked from posting by admin?



thats a good thing


its keeping me going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
2385. bjdsrq
Quoting Tazmanian:
5004 comments and 46 entries posted by all members in the last 24 hours.

You have posted 5076 entries in your own blog.

You have posted 50387 comments in all blogs.



look how many commets i have made and thats and i have not spam my own blog that all the commets i made here on dr m blog

i have made 200 + commets with in the past few days


Is that supposed to be a good thing, or a flag to be blocked from posting by admin?
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Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
only 30% on invest 98L because it will hit land soon.


NHC gives 98L a couple of days before making landfall, plenty of time

maybe if you shout at both invests enough though, they will both fall apart lol
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Quoting AussieStorm:

That's gotta happen within the next 2 days before it goes into Mexico.

Gee, what happened to 97L, down to 40% after being at 70% at 2pm yesterday.




97L nevere got in out of %60 that one some one make that up in the two bfor the nhc posted the new two
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
2382. RickWPB
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
My neighbor just got home from the corner tavern. He said a hurricane is headed for the Gulf and they are shutting down all oil spill operations and are heading for the hills. Is this true. What should we do?


What!? Sounds like they were maybe drinking a bit too much. No hurricane threat (anytime soon).
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
Kimberlan and Pasch are notoriously conservative. Good call by the NHC though, play it cautious.
Pasch in particular does not become overly effusive... lol
But he keeps a level head. And he's usually pretty right about when something's going to form, also. Pity he doesn't have Avila's style. lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22357
Quoting jasoniscoolman2010x:
only 30% on invest 98L because it will hit land soon.




the nhc said this


SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE
IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.




that means it still has 2 too 3 more days overe water
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
2378. bjdsrq
Quoting stormpetrol:
97L coming together finally and 98L also, Bonnie & Colin within 24 to 36 hours, if not some jerk Crow Please LMAO!


???
NHC nows says only 40% 97L becomes a TC w/ in 48 hours based on data from the NOAA flight.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think we will see a HH fight for 98L for thursday

That's gotta happen within the next 2 days before it goes into Mexico.

Gee, what happened to 97L, down to 40% after being at 70% at 2pm yesterday.
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Quoting reedzone:
The ULL is steering away from 97L, give it time before you all RIP this one.. sheesh.. so impatient!

Patience is a virtue that most bloggers are lacking. Just wait for tomorrow. Our Invests will most likely be there.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5694
2374. IKE
97L...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
EAST OF THE TROUGH.
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After reading the NHC Outlooks, they seem like very reasonable forecasts for both systems.

For Invest 97L, the ULL that has been impeding the system has only recently begun moving toward the west gradually away from the system which means that its still imparting southerly shear on the system. Until the ULL distances itself from the system, Invest 97L probably won't develop. Even though convection has been developing and seemingly organizing, the low level structure isn't there yet.

For Invest 98L, it does have a better defined circulation than Invest 97L, but convection remains rather disorganized and spread out at this time. Broad systems like this take at least a few days to get together, just like the case was with Alex. Thats why, even though it appears better than 97L, I don't believe we will see much development.
Member Since: April 14, 2007 Posts: 8 Comments: 5169
Quoting quante:
Well the latest TWO explains what the G-IV was doing today. looking at upper level winds.



The G-Iv plane always looks at upper level winds lol
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97L coming together finally and 98L also, Bonnie & Colin within 24 to 36 hours, if not some jerk Crow Please LMAO!
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I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Wonder if Dr. Masters is writing up a blog on 98L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24246
2368. bjdsrq
NHC knocked 97L chances of being a TC down to 40% now:
Link
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2366. xcool
I REMEMBER KerryInNOLA FROM LASTYEAR..
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2365. quante
Well the latest TWO explains what the G-IV was doing today. looking at upper level winds.

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we call 94L of 2007 you all rip it and it came back right at you has a cat 5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115252
Quoting tkeith:
2317. JoshE 6:35 PM CDT on July 21, 2010

you and your computer are gonna get real cozy this season :)

and WU re-hab dont work...


Well, it works between Dec 1 and mid May....
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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