97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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97l is looking better this evening...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TheDawnAwakening2:
98L has at least 2 more days of water, 97L has a closed LLC, I don't know why the NHC is calling it a surface trough. Visible satellite imagery showed a closed LLC. Maybe they figure it is headed towards eastern Cuba and think it might just dissolve into thin air. Other then that, 97L has a better chance tomorrow at developing into a cyclone, but unless it stays clear of Cuba and land interaction this system has a less than 30% chance of developing. 98L may become Bonnie first.
They based the last TWO on flight observations they were taking this afternoon. I think if they'd found something then they wouldn't be referring it to a trough. If the circulation is there now, and it lasts until about 0400 UTC, they'll likely have something different to say about it.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting biloxidaisy:


Thank you for sharing that Pat.
Yeah, ole' Pat. He's good fer sumthin, we jus ain't sur what yet.....LOL
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2459. Patrap
Quoting biloxidaisy:


Thank you for sharing that Pat.


Well worth the view isnt it?
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Quoting Tazmanian:
98L is realy starting too look good all so do i see what looks like a eye?


Taz, clean your eyes mate! no eye.
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2456. Patrap
NOAA 49 G-4 On Station still for 97L

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration "NOAA"


flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49

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Quoting moonlightcowboy:
As the sfc circ organizes, gets some lift going, some structure, if the low-level easterly flow is as it is now, 97L will track more west than north.


I agree with this..... in fact I think 97's LLC has as good a chance going over Cuba as it does S. Florida......
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How broad will this system be even if it only reaches TD status. And if it should go through the straits instead of So. or Cen. Fla. Would the rain reach as far as Melbourne or Cocoa Beach. Need to have an idea whether to keep my reservations on the Melbourne ocean resort. Any help would be appreciated. Also somewhat a lurker chime in once in a while. Also find this blog addicting
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Quoting Patrap:








"Wings and a Prayer," a mythical journey of Louisiana's endangered state bird, the brown pelican, is told in art and music.


Thank you for sharing that Pat.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Impressive. Thank god that thing isn't in the Atlantic.



shhh we may have one of are own here soon
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting AussieStorm:
Cat 1 Typhoon CHANTHU.

Impressive. Thank god that thing isn't in the Atlantic.
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98L has at least 2 more days of water, 97L has a closed LLC, I don't know why the NHC is calling it a surface trough. Visible satellite imagery showed a closed LLC. Maybe they figure it is headed towards eastern Cuba and think it might just dissolve into thin air. Other then that, 97L has a better chance tomorrow at developing into a cyclone, but unless it stays clear of Cuba and land interaction this system has a less than 30% chance of developing. 98L may become Bonnie first.
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98L is realy starting too look good all so do i see what looks like a eye?

Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
2448. xcool
GFDL FL TOLA
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Well stormpetrol my fight leaves for Miami on monday morning then onwards to home sweet home

but I wonder if 97L will affect my flight I hope not
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Sammy and Taz, don't fight with each other. U guys are both cool, and we can't have u out of the blog just when things look to be heating up.



ohs fighting am this saying whats ture
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting JoshE:
Thanks, everyone is so welcoming. All I can offer is my location here in East Texas, maybe I should buy a wind gauge and report what it says when the time comes. After spending 17 hours evacuating during Rita, I stayed for Ike and loved every minute of it! Oh, and I will never post pictures of cats or crows!


hey Josh.. I live on lake conroe... I am just a newbie like a said before I am not even a novice
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
2442. hydrus
Quoting sailingallover:
We just had a pretty good earthquake in St Thomas
Wash us and shake us out to dry....
No tsunami I hope..:0
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Cat 1 Typhoon CHANTHU.
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Sammy and Taz, don't fight with each other. U guys are both cool, and we can't have u out of the blog just when things look to be heating up.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Boy... That would confuse the hell out of me in the dark


LOL! Then i guess 5 F1's is out of the question?
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2438. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
** WTPQ20 BABJ 220000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CHANTHU 1003 (1003) INITIAL TIME 220000 UTC
00HR 20.6N 111.4E 970HPA 35M/S

30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR WNW 15KM/H=
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 52 Comments: 46910
Quoting sailingallover:
We just had a pretty good earthquake in St Thomas
Wash us and shake us out to dry....
Not showing on USGS yet. They had one in the Aleutians within the last hour also.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
97L has finally got itself some legs. Albeit small maybe, it's got a low-level sfc circ going. Visibles easily show mid and upper clouds passing above the rotation. Some dry air ahead, but the outflow boundary to the swest and off of 98L is feeding the TUTT and it moisture, and some shearing, all the while the ULL traveling west (north of 97L) is robbing its moisture. Tropical paradigm? It's in just the right spot, not to weaken and not strengthen much either. Until the southerly forcing of the trough over the CONUS clears/lifts out to the neast that ULL will keep robbing it of moisture - that is until finally, it's able to distance itself further from 97L.

By that time, what bit of dry air left should be fairly insignificant and 97L should be able to create enough convection overhead, better pressure to grow its sfc circ and get the tropical machine going. When that happens it'll still have a tendency to follow the ULL which will weaken (being robbed of moisture itself), allowing it to track more west than north. But, it may move slightly more northwards first towards the ULL. As the sfc circ organizes, gets some lift going, some structure, and if the low-level easterly flow is as it is now, 97L will track more west than north with the strengthening high.

Amazing WATER VAPOR LOOP! Just amazing. I'm just glad we don't have any feature showing up seast of all this mess!
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2435. Patrap








"Wings and a Prayer," a mythical journey of Louisiana's endangered state bird, the brown pelican, is told in art and music.
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2434. leo305
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well this may be large but its organizing quickly, unlike pre-Alex and pre-TD2 this already some sort of circulation at the surface as obs in the south have been showing west winds all day, plus there is obviously a circulation on GOES-E, its very evident.


to the guy you quoted..

tell that to wilma
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2433. xcool



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Quoting Baybuddy:


I have an F3 and an F2 you can have.


Boy... That would confuse the hell out of me in the dark
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
Quoting thelmores:
I believe that tomorrow we will have 2 depressions at minimum, and possible 2 named storms.....

I believe 98 will be a tropical storm, and 97 a TD by late afternoon tomorrow......

98 has really done an unbelievable job of organizing in the last 6-8 hours..... and with low shear, warm water, and an anticyclone moving over the storm...... all that equals Bonnie tomorrow in my opinion! In fact, I would not be surprised if 98 is a TD before sunrise tomorrow!

squiggle art anybody? LOL


Though your "forecast" is scary, it is definitely possible.
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2430. JoshE
Thanks, everyone is so welcoming. All I can offer is my location here in East Texas, maybe I should buy a wind gauge and report what it says when the time comes. After spending 17 hours evacuating during Rita, I stayed for Ike and loved every minute of it! Oh, and I will never post pictures of cats or crows!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, thel. Size is the enemy with this thing. It's amazing to me how many "monster-sized" AOIs and invests we've had this season already, HUGE areas of disturbed weather that haven't been able to make it because they just can't spin up fast enough to take advantage of their situation....


Well this may be large but its organizing quickly, unlike pre-Alex and pre-TD2 this already some sort of circulation at the surface as obs in the south have been showing west winds all day, plus there is obviously a circulation on GOES-E, its very evident.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Gotta order a new F5 key... good thing I know where it is cuz I cant read the white letters anymore!!


I have an F3 and an F2 you can have.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


That long? My F5 key on my old keyboard died in 2008 during Ike. I F5 so much that it fell off..


Teddy... My laptop is only 5 months old!!!! Im a WU addict!!! HELP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (NOT)
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
2426. xcool



CMC 18Z
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
Gotta order a new F5 key... good thing I know where it is cuz I cant read the white letters anymore!!


That long? My F5 key on my old keyboard died in 2008 during Ike. I F5 so much that it fell off..
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting thelmores:
I believe that tomorrow we will have 2 depressions at minimum, and possible 2 named storms.....

I believe 98 will be a tropical storm, and 97 a TD by late afternoon tomorrow......

98 has really done an unbelievable job of organizing in the last 6-8 hours..... and with low shear, warm water, and an anticyclone moving over the storm...... all that equals Bonnie tomorrow in my opinion! In fact, I would not be surprised if 98 is a TD before sunrise tomorrow!

squiggle art anybody? LOL

Hey, thel. Size is the enemy with this thing. It's amazing to me how many "monster-sized" AOIs and invests we've had this season already, HUGE areas of disturbed weather that haven't been able to make it because they just can't spin up fast enough to take advantage of their situation....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
Gotta order a new F5 key... good thing I know where it is cuz I cant read the white letters anymore!!
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
Is there a OFCL run on 98L yet? I'd like to see what intensity the NHC thinks this might get.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
Quoting thelmores:
I believe that tomorrow we will have 2 depressions at minimum, and possible 2 named storms.....

I believe 98 will be a tropical storm, and 97 a TD by late afternoon tomorrow......

98 has really done an unbelievable job of organizing in the last 6-8 hours..... and with low shear, warm water, and an anticyclone moving over the storm...... all that equals Bonnie tomorrow in my opinion! In fact, I would not be surprised if 98 is a TD before sunrise tomorrow!

squiggle art anybody? LOL



Thel, I agree. This is amazing, this might be the beginning of a long August - September.
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We just had a pretty good earthquake in St Thomas
Wash us and shake us out to dry....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hydrus:
Great post, super post, fantastic post...Truly a awesome post....really..:)...n/k.


ty hydros
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Dr. Masters is getting quoted more often now. His comments are at the end of this article on stopping the relief well for now.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
wow guys two orange on the TWO was expected the BOC has a better chance so maybe Bonnie and Collin in the making LOL

Hey bro, I read you were in Trinidad when u getting back home may I ask?
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
2413. hydrus
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Amen Brother... If we where all pro's then why would we even come to this website. I believe this site was designed for Discovery and learning.
Great post, super post, fantastic post...Truly a awesome post....really..:)...n/k.
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Quoting 7544:
did not ull just detach itself from 97l looks how conv is firing up now

It's origin is a detached piece of 97L..
At one point there was a line of convergence at about 16N between 60 and 64 west while the convection of 97L was stuck over PR and the VI's
it is all on ASCATS and sat pics from the last 2 days... It got left behind last night
Lets see how it does on it's own...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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