97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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2512. trey33
Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


Andrew didn't happen until late August
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Quoting Tazmanian:
98L takes up the hole gulf


Maybe we will get some more rain here in Willis, Tx
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I will take over for MH09, who wants a cookie? :)
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


learning more... I think it was Taz that said.." This is a site for discovery and learning"?? Or close to something like that,



yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
98L takes up the hole gulf
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting CybrTeddy:


A opinion is backed up with facts, data, and imos.


learning more... I think it was Taz that said.." This is a site for discovery and learning"?? Or close to something like that,
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Starting to see little red dots of convection here. Strongest convection it has had in quite a while.
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Quoting hydrus:
You. Taz-caster.



good one lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
2502. hydrus
Quoting Tazmanian:
we have downcaster fishcaster E caster W caster N caster doomcaster mode run doomcaster JFV caster L caster oil caster ufo caster banned caster shark caster crow caster two caster Admin caster re port caster blog caster Rip caster wind shear caster loop eddy caster



did i for get any thing
You. Taz-caster.
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Quoting thewindman:


It is an opinion. Downcasting is when an actual STORM or HURRICANE has formed which almost being at end of July have only had one of (lower than average) and then downplaying that storm. There is nothing to downcast here since there is Nothing going on


The Rio Grande Valley of Texas and Mexico would disagree.
Member Since: August 14, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 439
Quoting will45:
2468. HarleyStormDude52 8:20 PM EDT on July 21, 2010
Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


Is this "Downcasting".. Just trying to learn...

some call it that i just call it an opinion


A opinion is backed up with facts, data, and imos.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting Tazmanian:
we have downcaster fishcaster E caster W caster N caster doomcaster mode run doomcaster JFV caster L caster oil caster ufo caster banned caster shark caster crow caster two caster Admin caster re port caster blog caster Rip caster wind shear caster loop eddy caster



did i for get any thing
crab caster, chicken caster, and StormW caster :)
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Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1017mb (Surface) 75° (from the ENE) 22 knots (25 mph)
850mb 80° (from the E) 24 knots (28 mph)
796mb 95° (from the E) 26 knots (30 mph)
726mb 80° (from the E) 36 knots (41 mph)
587mb 80° (from the E) 30 knots (35 mph)
551mb 70° (from the ENE) 22 knots (25 mph)
542mb 80° (from the E) 21 knots (24 mph)
535mb 70° (from the ENE) 18 knots (21 mph)
507mb 40° (from the NE) 26 knots (30 mph)
424mb 20° (from the NNE) 31 knots (36 mph)
397mb 5° (from the N) 26 knots (30 mph)
356mb 15° (from the NNE) 18 knots (21 mph)
330mb 350° (from the N) 11 knots (13 mph)
254mb 10° (from the N) 34 knots (39 mph)
217mb 5° (from the N) 23 knots (26 mph)
204mb 40° (from the NE) 21 knots (24 mph)
195mb 25° (from the NNE) 15 knots (17 mph)
181mb 45° (from the NE) 20 knots (23 mph)
172mb 20° (from the NNE) 24 knots (28 mph)
148mb 85° (from the E) 19 knots (22 mph)
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I found it on the USGS. It was a 4.5
Yah, it's on there now.
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Quoting futuremet:
Hmmm...



That forecast continues to move around the downward MJO.. it probably won't even happen that strong. CFS has been fairly accurate so far.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Looks like we might get more than one named storm in July after all.
We have 10 days plus 4.5 hours left in July, we could have 3 or 4 more named storms by the time July ends, none of us know that we won't.
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Quoting JoshE:
Harley: “
hey Josh.. I live on lake conroe... I am just a newbie like a said before I am not even a novice”
(You didn’t have the little quote icon on your post so I had to copy and paste)
I am out by Cut and Shoot off of 105 East.
I was hit by that freak storm last year, I came home and just my neighborhood was covered in chunks of ice, a tree came through my house. I would love to post a photo but it may not be on topic, but it is storm related!!!


Off Fm 830 in Willis here.. we did not get the ice this close to the lake..
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Quoting BenBIogger:
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like a new LLC is trying to develop around 21N and 71.5W .. Still, slowly organizing, doesn't look half bad to me

97L


Quite feasible if it continues to organize. Should be interesting the next 12-24hrs.


Agreeed Likes
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Quoting futuremet:
Hmmm...





i think that is way overe doing it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting will45:
2468. HarleyStormDude52 8:20 PM EDT on July 21, 2010
Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


Is this "Downcasting".. Just trying to learn...

some call it that i just call it an opinion


It is an opinion. Downcasting is when an actual STORM or HURRICANE has formed which almost being at end of July have only had one of (lower than average) and then downplaying that storm. There is nothing to downcast here since there is Nothing going on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Looks like a new LLC is trying to develop around 21N and 71.5W .. Still, slowly organizing, doesn't look half bad to me

97L


Quite feasible if it continues to organize. Should be interesting the next 12-24hrs.
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Hmmm...

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Quoting ackee:
which invest do u guys think will be Bonnie first 98L or 97L


98L.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Taz... didnt you predict this earlier?



nop


i said i think we may end up with 4 name storms i dont see that any more but i do see 2 name storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting ackee:
which invest do u guys think will be Bonnie first 98L or 97L


i Think 98L Wil Become Bonnie Then a Think 97L Wil Become TD4 a Duno Am just a Weather Fan From Scotland lol
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Hmmm....

Thanks for the FlightAware live tracking link, Patrap. I added it to my faves...
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Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.

It aint Nov 30 , 2010 yet or even mid Dec, remember 2004, no storm until Aug 1, BTW his name was Alex too, if I'm not mistaken and stand to be corrected 2004 had more ACE than 2005 even though it basically had half the named storms, Don't holler before you get out of woods as my grandpa used to say, although you could still be correct!
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 7932
2483. will45
2468. HarleyStormDude52 8:20 PM EDT on July 21, 2010
Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


Is this "Downcasting".. Just trying to learn...

some call it that i just call it an opinion
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:

Highest probabilities in the Atlantic are 98L's.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
2481. ackee
which invest do u guys think will be Bonnie first 98L or 97L
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we have downcaster fishcaster E caster W caster N caster doomcaster mode run doomcaster JFV caster L caster oil caster ufo caster banned caster shark caster crow caster two caster Admin caster re port caster blog caster Rip caster wind shear caster loop eddy caster



did i for get any thing
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
2479. xcool
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Not showing on USGS yet. They had one in the Aleutians within the last hour also.
I found it on the USGS. It was a 4.5
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2477. JoshE
Harley: “
hey Josh.. I live on lake conroe... I am just a newbie like a said before I am not even a novice”
(You didn’t have the little quote icon on your post so I had to copy and paste)
I am out by Cut and Shoot off of 105 East.
I was hit by that freak storm last year, I came home and just my neighborhood was covered in chunks of ice, a tree came through my house. I would love to post a photo but it may not be on topic, but it is storm related!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Is this "Downcasting".. Just trying to learn...


Epic downcasting, yes. Ignore him, report him, ect.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24186
Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


Wait 60 days, and try that comment again! LOL
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Looks like we might get more than one named storm in July after all.


Taz... didnt you predict this earlier?
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Looks like we might get more than one named storm in July after all.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Is this "Downcasting".. Just trying to learn...



yup he downcasting
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115244
Quoting Acere25:
MLC, are you expecting 97L to become a storm before it reaches SF, or it wont have enough time to do so?



You mean a TS? Maybe. There's been some wind speeds posted today that shows some support for that, but until it gets clear of the TUTT and can keep the ULL-robbed moisture over its coc, it isn't going to look much different, imo. We've been watching this for a few days now, the geography and conditions haven't changed all that much. With the above happening, and it getting over warmer Gulf Stream waters, better structure, some improvement might be expected. But, without that happening, I'm not expecting much until later on - hence the "just right position" not to weaken or strengthen in the present.

But, hey, there's much smarter folks here than me, and they may give you an entirely different opinion. ;)
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Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


How is it???? its Not Even Got to Its Peak Bit Of the Season??
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Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


Is this "Downcasting".. Just trying to learn...
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2341 ...like pictures of cats or crows...

CAT -> Short for Category e.g., Category 1.46 coming to a town near you. j/k

CROW -> Climatological Reconnaissance Observation Wing, is it not?
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Quoting Royallypalmbeaches:
How broad will this system be even if it only reaches TD status. And if it should go through the straits instead of So. or Cen. Fla. Would the rain reach as far as Melbourne or Cocoa Beach. Need to have an idea whether to keep my reservations on the Melbourne ocean resort. Any help would be appreciated. Also somewhat a lurker chime in once in a while. Also find this blog addicting


I believe by this time tomorrow, we may have enough information to hazard a guess..... but at this point, I don't believe we have enough information to answer your question......
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Looks like a new LLC is trying to develop around 21N and 71.5W .. Still, slowly organizing, doesn't look half bad to me

97L
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7396
absolutely. I will be sharing that with friends and family.
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What an overhyped Hurricane Season.
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97l is looking better this evening...

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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