97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Tazmanian:
21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic


i think 97L is under where it says 1.0 has for a T #


What's the typical T-number for a system that is a tropical depression? I'd be shocked if 97L were near that.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 438 Comments: 3603
97L is also currently trying to become better organized as -70C convection is starting to pop up. 98L is well on its way currently.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23566
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2558. JoshE
Shell evacuating from Gulf of Mexico


The funny thing is, they are calling it Tropical Depression #22.
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Quoting bakers:
hmm i guess if the hyped up season doesnt pan out modelers can always blame the dust.


98L.....http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2010&MO=07&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=98L.INV EST&PROD=track_vis&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE=active&NAV=tc&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables&AID_DIR=/SATPRO DUCTS/kauai_data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&TYPE=ssmi
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
2556. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON CHANTHU (T1003)
9:00 AM JST July 22 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Northern Part Of The South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chanthu (965 hPa) located at 20.5N 111.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.9N 108.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.5N 106.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Well stormpetrol my fight leaves for Miami on monday morning then onwards to home sweet home

but I wonder if 97L will affect my flight I hope not

Have a safe one, I remember my family and I got held over in Miami on June 3 while returning from Belize due to thunderstorms, had to overnight in Mia, we were the last flight before the planes were diverted to Orlando and else where but we had no other alternative than to land we had a passenger who had become gravely ill 45 minutes out of Belize! Once again take care and safe travels!
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Quoting FLdewey:
Recon is heading home... last hour to Mac Dill.



recone never went out tooday what you saw in 97L today was a ufo
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
thanks sailing. now lets see if the pressure drops in the next couple hours
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Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
is there a 98L or are people mislabeling again to make things confusing?


Yeah, I was starting to question to when I didn't see 98L next to 97L on www.wunderground.com/tropical.

What's y'all source for seeing declared Invests?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 438 Comments: 3603
Quoting caneman:
Death to this tropical blob.



Death caster
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
2549. bakers
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
is there a 98L or are people mislabeling again to make things confusing?
hmm i guess if the hyped up season doesnt pan out modelers can always blame the dust.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Welcome, how is the weather in Scotland?


Cold it Raining After a Rather Hot Spell
Tormorrow Well Today Our time is 1.43am is ment to be 21 Degrees With Sunshine and Clouds
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2547. caneman
Death to this tropical blob.
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2546. EricSFL
Quoting xcool:
Pressure down.
97L GOOD


Where are you getting this info xcool? Do you have a link? thanks
Member Since: May 26, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 803
well my love


time for me too hit the road i be back by noon thursday


note will not be on this weekend my next posting will be monday on the blogs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Weather in the T&C
8 PM (0) Jul 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) ENE 30 heavy rain
pressure still at 1011 for the last 4 hours..
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MBPV.html
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
Quoting Patrap:
Maybe a Page for Thousands to BOOKMARK..


Atlantic
green ball icon98L.INVEST
green ball icon97L.INVEST


http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home2.cgi?YEAR=2010&MO=07&BASIN=ATL&STORM_NAME=nul l&PROD=micro vap&AID_DIR=/SATPRODUCTS/kauai_data/www/atlantic/tropics/microvap/dmsp&PHOT=yes&ARCHIVE= active&NAV=t c&AGE=Latest&SIZE=Thumb&STYLE=tables




Kick a^^ !!!!!! thanks!! they actually show a 98L !!!! Good data
Member Since: July 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 345
21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic


i think 97L is under where it says 1.0 has for a T #
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


You got it... Mostly because "Im not a forecast caster"
Yeah, I'm in the category with you. I'm a sarcaster
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2540. xcool
tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry .
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
2539. xcool
Pressure down.
97L GOOD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
hi all, hay quick question i know grand turk has an international airport. does anyone know where we could get the surfece obsevation?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:



Your I'll Advised. AT THIS MOMENT THERE ARE NO TROPICAL DISTURBANCES PROJECTED TO COME CLOSE TO THE OIL SPILL. 98L is heading to TX/MX. And 97L Is heading to FL. AND THERE ARENT EVEN TD'S

STOP POSTING FALSE INFORMATION


BP has capped relief wells and stopped work on them due to possible tropical disturbance

http://www.nola.com/news/gulf-oil-spill/index.ssf/2010/07/bp_has_put_a_storm_plug_in_the.html
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Quoting msgambler:
I'm starting to think that Taz and earthly are caster-casters....LOL


You got it... Mostly because "Im not a forecast caster"
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Yeah, I am in the camp that says if anything, 98L will be Bonnie first. Its in a much better environment for development than 97L. Its only downfall maybe that it has a broad center, and it may take too long to develop further before landfall.

97L I continue to expect will fail to develop due to wind shear. I predicted this 36 hours ago (see Call Me a Downcaster! 97L May Not Deevlop At All), and it looks like the prediction came to fruiton today.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 438 Comments: 3603
2534. Patrap
Maybe a Page for Thousands to BOOKMARK..


Atlantic
green ball icon98L.INVEST
green ball icon97L.INVEST


NAVY NRL Page

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Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


It is only July.

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I'm starting to think that Taz and earthly are caster-casters....LOL
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 97 2010072200 BEST 0 214N 728W 30 1009 DB



good call 1009mbs
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
2530. hydrus
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
is there a 98L or are people mislabeling again to make things confusing?
There is a 98L in the BOC.
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2529. hydrus
Quoting Tazmanian:



good one lol
..........This loop shows 97L trying hard to get organized...Link
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21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114717
Quoting AllStar17:
Starting to see little red dots of convection here. Strongest convection it has had in quite a while.
Sun's been pretty much gone for about an hour, so I guess the heat release is on.... if 97L can build itself sufficiently overnight, it may actually be able to fight off the ULL tomorrow.

But we shall see.

BBL
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
2526. JRRP
120hr.... dust forecast
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is there a 98L or are people mislabeling again to make things confusing?
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2524. ackee
SO far the 2010 seasons have been full with a lot of invest than actual TD or TS wonder if this trend will continue
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AL 97 2010072200 BEST 0 214N 728W 30 1009 DB
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Quoting Tazmanian:
we have downcaster fishcaster E caster W caster N caster doomcaster mode run doomcaster JFV caster L caster oil caster ufo caster banned caster shark caster crow caster two caster Admin caster re port caster blog caster Rip caster



did i for get any thing


Copy cat caster.... Outcaster..... Sarcaster (me) flood caster (jerry garcia)... Master caster (Dr. Masters).... Senior Chief caster (Storm W)
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Love the blog and the information it provides. We're in Naples, FL and our local broadcasters/news is downplaying this thing completely, basically telling us it will be another day with strong Summer thunderstorms. I tend to want to say that's great!

However, in reality, is this any threat to us to become any type of tropical feature of significance? I, for one don't want to be caught completely off guard and a storm pops up from nothing because conditions change or water temps rise and it blows up against the odds. Is there any conditions that could cause this to turn into a Hurricane before threatening S FL? Thanks for your opinions!
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2519. Patrap
NASA MSFC Viewer 98L
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


A opinion is backed up with facts, data, and imos.
That would be an informed opinion. There are many uninformed opinions on this blog.
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Re. 2496. That analysis looks correct, Teddy, but I don't see a major shifting to the east happening right now.... and by day 40 looks like a dying out more so than a shifting... but my interpretation of MJO values is not that sophisticated.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21484
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


i Think 98L Wil Become Bonnie Then a Think 97L Wil Become TD4 a Duno Am just a Weather Fan From Scotland lol
Welcome, how is the weather in Scotland?
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Quoting Michaelkaii10:


i Think 98L Wil Become Bonnie Then a Think 97L Wil Become TD4 a Duno Am just a Weather Fan From Scotland lol
Just a guest from past experiences, maybe none of the two would make it, 97L running out of opportunities and conditions don't appear to favor rapid intensificiation, and 98L, needs to get its act together soon , or will be swallow by big old Mexico soon.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
2513. Patrap
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2512. trey33
Quoting thewindman:
What an overhyped Hurricane Season.


Andrew didn't happen until late August
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.