97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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I there a chance that 98L will suck in 97L? Just a stupid newbie question
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2611. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2609. calder
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


GOOD ALE!!!! So its about 1am where you are at.. guess that depends.. from where I am it is..


2 AM! Just finished work so headed onto the blog to check out 97L and found 98L. Im thinking no Bonnie for at least 2 days and probably, heres hoping, no cane.
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what about Nocasters, people who don't cast at all
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2455. thelmores 7:16 PM CDT on July 21, 2010
Quoting moonlightcowboy:
As the sfc circ organizes, gets some lift going, some structure, if the low-level easterly flow is as it is now, 97L will track more west than north.


I agree with this..... in fact I think 97's LLC has as good a chance going over Cuba as it does S. Florida......




Thanks, thelmore! Yeah, I've thinking up the gut of the FL Straits still now for a couple of days. Got a ways to go though. We'll see.

And, good to see you - always enjoyed your posts and insight! Thanks.
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Angiest, 98L looks like a Mexico storm with little effect on Texas as of right now.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

Go here, Navy site.


Thanks AussieStorm! Is it the Navy who declares Invests? Wow, I am keeping the link to this site.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
Quoting calder:


I'm over in helensburgh, go to university in edinburgh so not far away!


GOOD ALE!!!! So its about 1am where you are at.. guess that depends.. from where I am it is..
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2602. gator23
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Conch Republic did declare their independence.

oh in MY FACE your right of course, the Keys. My bad
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Quoting calder:


I'm over in helensburgh, go to university in edinburgh so not far away!


Good To See a Felllow Scot in the Blog :)
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am trying to see if I have learned more about tropical weather. Is StormW's theory on 97L sound like my theory?

Call Me a Downcaster! 97L May Not Develop At All

Don't know where the link to his blog is since I haven't seen a recent post where I can click on his name?

StormW's Blog
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Conch Republic did declare their independence.
yes but they built a new jewfish creek bridge
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2598. xcool
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC THU JUL 22 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972010) 20100722 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100722 0000 100722 1200 100723 0000 100723 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 21.4N 72.8W 21.9N 75.7W 22.5N 77.9W 23.3N 80.3W
BAMD 21.4N 72.8W 22.3N 74.8W 23.4N 77.3W 24.7N 80.3W
BAMM 21.4N 72.8W 21.9N 75.1W 22.8N 77.3W 23.9N 79.8W
LBAR 21.4N 72.8W 22.1N 75.3W 23.1N 77.8W 24.2N 80.6W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS 39KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 35KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100724 0000 100725 0000 100726 0000 100727 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.4N 82.3W 26.5N 86.4W 28.3N 90.4W 30.5N 93.8W
BAMD 26.1N 83.6W 29.3N 89.8W 32.4N 93.5W 35.4N 95.5W
BAMM 25.1N 82.3W 27.5N 87.3W 29.6N 91.4W 32.3N 94.5W
LBAR 25.5N 83.4W 28.9N 88.2W 32.7N 90.2W 36.0N 87.4W
SHIP 42KTS 47KTS 52KTS 55KTS
DSHP 42KTS 47KTS 42KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 21.4N LONCUR = 72.8W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 20.7N LONM12 = 70.1W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 19.8N LONM24 = 68.2W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2596. calder
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Livingston its About 20 Miles East of the Capital Edinburgh


I'm over in helensburgh, go to university in edinburgh so not far away!
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Quoting gator23:
seems like 97L may miss Florida altogether, StormW had this nailed


Conch Republic did declare their independence.
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2594. angiest
2587 - cow caster is still missing.
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Quoting sailingallover:
getting closer.
Note that even though we didn't have a TD or TS here in the VI's still a lot of damage. I read earlier you were prepared be safe!

Yep, thats what they say and I say also "a rose by any other name is still a rose".
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
2592. xcool





Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
00Z Runs from the NHC with intensity

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2590. angiest
NWS Houston/Galveston still not discussing any effects from 98L at this time. They continue to talk about the rain threat from 97L in the Sunday/Monday timeframe.
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Quoting calder:


where u at in scotland?


Livingston its About 20 Miles East of the Capital Edinburgh
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Say that to Mexico Ackee..


Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24548
Quoting gator23:
seems like 97L may miss Florida altogether, StormW had this nailed
was expecting the responce like in the movie Airplane when ya use the word "altogether" "seems like 97l may miss florida
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Yea it More Seems Like Cuba or the Flordia Strights( Sorry if i spelled it Wrong)

Longer it takes to develop the more west it goes..
Storm does have a knack for this stuff....
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Quoting gator23:
seems like 97L may miss Florida altogether, StormW had this nailed


I am trying to see if I have learned more about tropical weather. Is StormW's theory on 97L sound like my theory?

Call Me a Downcaster! 97L May Not Develop At All

Don't know where the link to his blog is since I haven't seen a recent post where I can click on his name?
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
AL 98 2010072200 BEST 0 202N 935W 20 1008 DB
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2582. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2581. calder
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Yea it More Seems Like Cuba or the Flordia Strights( Sorry if i spelled it Wrong)


where u at in scotland?
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2580. will45
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I was starting to question to when I didn't see 98L next to 97L on www.wunderground.com/tropical.

What's y'all source for seeing declared Invests?



Link

Navy site
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Quoting FLdewey:


Looks Like a Bird on Top of The World lol
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2578. angiest
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I was starting to question to when I didn't see 98L next to 97L on www.wunderground.com/tropical.

What's y'all source for seeing declared Invests?


WU hasn't updated yet, but 98L was listed in the latest TWO.
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Quoting ackee:
SO far the 2010 seasons have been full with a lot of invest than actual TD or TS wonder if this trend will continue

To be honest, hopefully , but I doubt it very much, I think not in terms of numbers greatly, though I think they will be above average, but I think 2010 we probably be a year to remeber just my opinion only. August to October I have a feeling will be different.
Member Since: April 29, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 8134
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


Copy cat caster.... Outcaster..... Sarcaster (me) flood caster (jerry garcia)... Master caster (Dr. Masters).... Senior Chief caster (Storm W)


Plaster Caster....oops! dated myself.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:


Looks like it missed it.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Yeah, I was starting to question to when I didn't see 98L next to 97L on www.wunderground.com/tropical.

What's y'all source for seeing declared Invests?

Go here, Navy site.
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NCHurricane2009 I use National Hurricane Center, Accuweather, Weatherundergound, basically any tropical weather site I can find.
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Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
getting closer.
Note that even though we didn't have a TD or TS here in the VI's still a lot of damage. I read earlier you were prepared be safe!
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Quoting gator23:
seems like 97L may miss Florida altogether, StormW had this nailed


Yea it More Seems Like Cuba or the Flordia Strights( Sorry if i spelled it Wrong)
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Quoting gator23:
seems like 97L may miss Florida altogether, StormW had this nailed


That is why he is the "chief caster"
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2568. FLdewey
Member Since: August 19, 2008 Posts: 42 Comments: 6269
Quoting CybrTeddy:
97L is also currently trying to become better organized as -70C convection is starting to pop up. 98L is well on its way currently.


Yeah, also 92L in June also had deep convective bursts when it started to get sheared. I remember there was a huge battle ont his blog, some referencing the deep convection as evidence that its developing, others saying that shear won't cause it to developing. I am reluctant to go with 97L developing in wind shear.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712
2565. gator23
seems like 97L may miss Florida altogether, StormW had this nailed
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2564. JRRP
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What's the typical T-number for a system that is a tropical depression? I'd be shocked if 97L were near that.

2.0
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Quoting floridaT:
hi all, hay quick question i know grand turk has an international airport. does anyone know where we could get the surfece obsevation?

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MBPV.html
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Quoting Tazmanian:
21/2345 UTC 21.1N 72.9W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic


i think 97L is under where it says 1.0 has for a T #


What's the typical T-number for a system that is a tropical depression? I'd be shocked if 97L were near that.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 539 Comments: 3712

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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