97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


You missed Sarcaster.... Senior Chief Caster.... Copy cat caster/ copycaster
You missed the first one earthly. You made the first one with JFV and I had a heck of a time trying to stop laughing. Ohh, that was it...HEHEHEHE
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Quoting miamivu:
Funny how quickly everyone forgets Katrina....another invest very near where 97 is...that went from a depression to Cat 1 in 48 hours...Miami-Dade had a Cat 1 hit with very little notice...because mass media doesn't like to tinker around with maybes, dunnos, what ifs...etc("invests" aren't v. newsworthy)...at least in Miami everyone pays close attention to these invests...because, like I said...Katrina's cyclogeneis occured quickly and unexpectedly...and the public was caught off guard:
08/23 18 GMT 23.1 75.1 35 1008 Tropical Depression
08/24 00 GMT 23.4 75.7 35 1007 Tropical Depression
08/24 06 GMT 23.8 76.2 35 1007 Tropical Depression
08/24 12 GMT 24.5 76.5 40 1006 Tropical Storm
08/24 18 GMT 25.4 76.9 45 1003 Tropical Storm
08/25 00 GMT 26.0 77.7 50 1000 Tropical Storm
08/25 06 GMT 26.1 78.4 60 997 Tropical Storm
08/25 12 GMT 26.2 79.0 65 994 Tropical Storm
08/25 18 GMT 26.2 79.6 70 988 Tropical Storm
08/26 00 GMT 25.9 80.3 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane
Uh, no. We've been talking about Katrina here since Sunday latest. Prolly earlier. And yes, there are some similarities, but there are also some differences that make the current environment less conducive to the rapid development seen during Katrina's cyclogenesis.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Quoting Hurricanes101:


BAMM suite says 98L goes inland in 24 hours, if that is the case, chances of development are low


That likely won't happen. It has 36-48 hrs imo at the least.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Quoting Hurricanes101:


BAMM suite says 98L goes inland in 24 hours, if that is the case, chances of development are low


Yep. Nothing to shake a stick at.
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2657. calder
Quoting BahaHurican:
What about Fujiwara effect?

2618. calder 9:00 PM EDT on July 21, 2010
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I there a chance that 98L will suck in 97L? Just a stupid newbie question


errm.. no!



The Fujiwara effect is definately not relevant here, there aren't even depressions yet, just invests. In any case, 98L will be over land before it can intensify into a depression (probably)
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Quoting Michaelkaii10:


No i ment in 2005 When Katrina made LandFall in South Flordia Did it strengthen over Land For a Bit before going Out to the Gulf

If I recalled it was strengthening rapidly before it hit south Florida, then weakened some as it went over it, and quickly gained strength over the Keys.
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another newbie question.... what constitutes a "new blog" on here???
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2653. miamivu
Quoting msgambler:
Yeah, and conditions are different now than they where 5 years ago so there is no need to compair the 2


Of course they were...my remark is directed at those who find the level of interest on this blog for blobs to be foolish...97 is in an unfortunate environment for development...that could change in 24 hrs....it's looking fairly TD at the moment
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


BAMM suite says 98L goes inland in 24 hours, if that is the case, chances of development are low
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting miamivu:
Funny how quickly everyone forgets Katrina....another invest very near where 97 is...that went from a depression to Cat 1 in 48 hours...
Was thinking that myself but am not an expert. I've noticed over the years developing storms near an Upper Level Low are hard to predict or so it seems from my observations. All we can do is watch a learn from the experts, frequently check the NWS and NHC, and don't rely on mass media.
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2650. palmpt
Quoting stormpetrol:

To be honest, hopefully , but I doubt it very much, I think not in terms of numbers greatly, though I think they will be above average, but I think 2010 we probably be a year to remeber just my opinion only. August to October I have a feeling will be different.


It will be above average.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2649. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
China Meteorological Administration

** WTPQ20 BABJ 220100 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST
TY CHANTHU 1003 (1003) INITIAL TIME 220100 UTC
00HR 20.7N 111.4E 970HPA 35M/S (70 knots)
30KTS 200KM
50KTS 60KM
P12HR NW 15KM/H=
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
Goodnight to all, peaceful blogging.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2647. angiest
Quoting BahaHurican:
What about Fujiwara effect?

2618. calder 9:00 PM EDT on July 21, 2010
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I there a chance that 98L will suck in 97L? Just a stupid newbie question


errm.. no!



I think you need fully-formed cyclones first.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
after viewing the steering maps I see maybe 97L will not go to Florida but infact straight into the caribbean passing over Cuba and over my home out my backyard and to the Yucatan this is going to be bad I didn't even put up the shutters befor we left
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Quoting msgambler:
Yeah, and conditions are different now than they where 5 years ago so there is no need to compair the 2


Am No Compair katrina To 97L just a Though in 2005 it strengthen Over Land for a Bit Thats all lol
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What about Fujiwara effect?

2618. calder 9:00 PM EDT on July 21, 2010
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I there a chance that 98L will suck in 97L? Just a stupid newbie question


errm.. no!

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Turks and Caicos Airport Link

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 PM (0) Jul 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) ENE 30 heavy rain
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Quoting txag91met:

This won't be Katrina---I guarantee that.

Silly.


No i ment in 2005 When Katrina made LandFall in South Flordia Did it strengthen over Land For a Bit before going Out to the Gulf
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Angiest, 98L looks like a Mexico storm with little effect on Texas as of right now.


The landfall area is one thing. The inland flooding and rainfall is another story.

Rio Grande Flood Page
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2638. miamivu
Did it Also strengthen over Land after katrina made Landfall?


yup yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2637. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
yup definitely like all hurricanes/typhoons that approach landfall it seems they manage to strengthen.
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45302
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Did it Also strengthen over Land after katrina made Landfall?
Yeah, and conditions are different now than they where 5 years ago so there is no need to compair the 2
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
NOAA49
(all flights) (photos)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration "NOAA"


NOAA 49 G-4 Mission is Complete they are inbound back to McDill..

flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49


Just for those who didn't see.

DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET INDICATE THAT
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...ALTHOUGH THEY COULD BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IN A DAY OR
TWO.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3720
Quoting Michaelkaii10:


Did it Also strengthen over Land after katrina made Landfall?

This won't be Katrina---I guarantee that.

Silly.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting miamivu:
Funny how quickly everyone forgets Katrina....another invest very near where 97 is...that went from a depression to Cat 1 in 48 hours...Miami-Dade had a Cat 1 hit with very little notice...because mass media doesn't like to tinker around with maybes, dunnos, what ifs...etc("invests" aren't v. newsworthy)...at least in Miami everyone pays close attention to these invests...because, like I said...Katrina's cyclogeneis occured quickly and unexpectedly...and the public was caught off guard:
08/23 18 GMT 23.1 75.1 35 1008 Tropical Depression
08/24 00 GMT 23.4 75.7 35 1007 Tropical Depression
08/24 06 GMT 23.8 76.2 35 1007 Tropical Depression
08/24 12 GMT 24.5 76.5 40 1006 Tropical Storm
08/24 18 GMT 25.4 76.9 45 1003 Tropical Storm
08/25 00 GMT 26.0 77.7 50 1000 Tropical Storm
08/25 06 GMT 26.1 78.4 60 997 Tropical Storm
08/25 12 GMT 26.2 79.0 65 994 Tropical Storm
08/25 18 GMT 26.2 79.6 70 988 Tropical Storm
08/26 00 GMT 25.9 80.3 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane


Did it Also strengthen over Land after katrina made Landfall?
2632. Patrap
NOAA49
(all flights) (photos)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration "NOAA"


NOAA 49 G-4 Mission is Complete they are inbound back to McDill..

flightaware.com/live/flight/NOAA49
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting floridaT:
hi all, hay quick question i know grand turk has an international airport. does anyone know where we could get the surfece obsevation?
They've got stuff on Provo on Wunderground, but not GTI... dunno why not or where else to look for those observations...

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #33
TYPHOON CHANTHU (T1003)
9:00 AM JST July 22 2010
============================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Northern Part Of The South China Sea

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Chanthu (965 hPa) located at 20.5N 111.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 knots with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 9 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.9N 108.9E - 50 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
48 HRS: 22.5N 106.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Sounds like this is tightening up as it approaches land...

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22101
Angiest, way south of those 2 storms, where I am in Texas I got little rain from the 2 previous storms.
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
HarleyStormDude52 98L will go into Mexico as a possible TD or TS possibly and will have No effect on whatever happens to 97L


got it..thanks!!!
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2628. miamivu
Funny how quickly everyone forgets Katrina....another invest very near where 97 is...that went from a depression to Cat 1 in 48 hours...Miami-Dade had a Cat 1 hit with very little notice...because mass media doesn't like to tinker around with maybes, dunnos, what ifs...etc("invests" aren't v. newsworthy)...at least in Miami everyone pays close attention to these invests...because, like I said...Katrina's cyclogeneis occured quickly and unexpectedly...and the public was caught off guard:
08/23 18 GMT 23.1 75.1 35 1008 Tropical Depression
08/24 00 GMT 23.4 75.7 35 1007 Tropical Depression
08/24 06 GMT 23.8 76.2 35 1007 Tropical Depression
08/24 12 GMT 24.5 76.5 40 1006 Tropical Storm
08/24 18 GMT 25.4 76.9 45 1003 Tropical Storm
08/25 00 GMT 26.0 77.7 50 1000 Tropical Storm
08/25 06 GMT 26.1 78.4 60 997 Tropical Storm
08/25 12 GMT 26.2 79.0 65 994 Tropical Storm
08/25 18 GMT 26.2 79.6 70 988 Tropical Storm
08/26 00 GMT 25.9 80.3 80 983 Category 1 Hurricane
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2627. calder
Quoting nweatherlover:


You are definitely a "Mexico-caster".


Also gotta remember there are mexican bloggers on here who will want to keep an eye out
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Quoting calder:


Same! What do u do in livingston?


im at College Doing a Sport and Fitness Course lol
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
HarleyStormDude52 are you saying you are addicted?


Beyond addicted.. The only 2 things that I quit WU for are riding my Harley and....
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HarleyStormDude52 98L will go into Mexico as a possible TD or TS possibly and will have No effect on whatever happens to 97L
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2623. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


GOOD ALE!!!! So its about 1am where you are at.. guess that depends.. from where I am it is..


its 2am in Scotland Now lol Shame the next TWO Comes out at 2am Us Time What is about 7am Our Time lol
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
00Z Runs from the NHC with intensity



wow...that's a lot more time over the GOMEX than earlier models....eeek
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Angiest, 98L looks like a Mexico storm with little effect on Texas as of right now.


You are definitely a "Mexico-caster".
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2619. angiest
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Angiest, 98L looks like a Mexico storm with little effect on Texas as of right now.


Like Alex and TD2? ;)

At the very least some marine effects could be mentioned.
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2618. calder
Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
I there a chance that 98L will suck in 97L? Just a stupid newbie question


errm.. no!
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Quoting gator23:
seems like 97L may miss Florida altogether, StormW had this nailed


Yeah. The ULL was forecast to dissipate yet, turned out to be stronger than it's ever been today. It's always been an intensity thing with the steering. Westward ho.
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This blog has 'bout doubled its speed since last season. And, I type fast, and read fast! Somebody chap Scotty off? LOL

Forgive me, please, if I can't keep up or say hello. Old dude like me doesn't get in a great big hurry! ;P
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HarleyStormDude52 are you saying you are addicted?
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I there a chance that 98L will suck in 97L? Just a stupid newbie question
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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