97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting zoomiami:
any comparison to Katrina does not have to be to what happen in New Orleans. The comparison is to storms that appear on life support right up until hitting the coast. Katrina is not the only one, Andrew was another, and then I believe it was Irene that the thought was going toward the west coast, took a right hand turn and landed on Miami as a weak cat 1.

Also Fay. The original track took it over the western part of Cuba, and away. Instead, it past over the middle of Cuba, came right up the keys, through the everglades and meandered around Florida for a few days.

So nothing is ever written in stone.
I have a laymans theory about that. i fish the gulfstream off the east coast of fl. that water is moving about 6 to 7 knots and is allways warmer. i believe because that water is comming from the south it is constantly providing a new energy source therefore reduceing the effect of upwelling. just my 2 cents worth
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2710. miamivu
Quoting zoomiami:
any comparison to Katrina does not have to be to what happen in New Orleans. The comparison is to storms that appear on life support right up until hitting the coast. Katrina is not the only one, Andrew was another, and then I believe it was Irene that the thought was going toward the west coast, took a right hand turn and landed on Miami as a weak cat 1.

Also Fay. The original track took it over the western part of Cuba, and away. Instead, it past over the middle of Cuba, came right up the keys, through the everglades and meandered around Florida for a few days.

So nothing is ever written in stone.


Right. Because of NO disaster, everyone forgot that Miami was hit by a Cat 1 Katrina...and later that season Miami was hit again by Wilma...but still, a strengthening Cat 1 is an awesome spectacle.
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Quoting RavensFan:

i was a front runner back in the early 2000s lol!


Im a Texans season ticket holder.. (I know) at least its a few good tail gate parties every year... Ok I know ... back to weather sorry
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Quoting calder:


The Fujiwara effect is definately not relevant here, there aren't even depressions yet, just invests. In any case, 98L will be over land before it can intensify into a depression (probably)
LOL Sorry, all; I should have indicated I was being a bit tongue in cheek w/ that question.... but our newest enthusiasts might actually enjoy reading about the Fujiwara effect. It's one of the more interesting aspects of TC "lore".... lol
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Quoting StormW:


Good! You?


Great Sir. You work to hard, so I am going to start a collection after cane season and we are going to send you to Disney World.....Or Dothan Al. depending on how much we can scratch together.
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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:


Tampa Ravens????? Ha!!!!!

i was a front runner back in the early 2000s lol!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This is Provo, or Providenciales Airport. I haven't found any obs. posted from MBGT, which is the other airport.


I noticed you were looking for that one after I posted. Last entry for MBGT was April 12 Link
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Quoting watchdog40:
The models moved a lot to the west since this afternoon for 97, do you think there is a chance it will move back east?


anything is possible, however, i think any shift back east would be small. I believe that the model consensus right now is probably where it is going to end up.

This could all change
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2698. xcool
Caicos.ENE WIND
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting StormW:


I'll have to see if the update steering layers forecast is up yet...and some satellite imagery review.


Hey Senior Chief!!

Caster... I tried not to say it but Im addicted.
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Quoting RavensFan:
hey everyone, should Tampa have to worry about 97L?


Tampa Ravens????? Ha!!!!!
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2695. palmpt
Quoting watchdog40:
The models moved a lot to the west since this afternoon for 97, do you think there is a chance it will move back east?


They will continue to bounce around.
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Thanks Storm.
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Katrina was a barely organized tropical storm about 2 hours before landfall.

Wilma was rapidly intensifying, then slowed down, but did not die going over land.
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hey everyone, should Tampa have to worry about 97L?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
What about Fujiwara effect?

Even though no development , most systems that pose a threat to develop has been much too close to each other, That is why I posed the question could conditions actually be too favorable? They would cancel out each other that is what is what I see happening with most invests this season so far,though I think Aug to Oct will be different.
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2689. xcool



UPDATE .NICE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Turks and Caicos Airport Link

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 8 PM (0) Jul 21 75 (24) 75 (24) 29.87 (1011) ENE 30 heavy rain
This is Provo, or Providenciales Airport. I haven't found any obs. posted from MBGT, which is the other airport.
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The models moved a lot to the west since this afternoon for 97, do you think there is a chance it will move back east?
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Quoting StormW:


Thanks!
I'm great, thanks
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any comparison to Katrina does not have to be to what happen in New Orleans. The comparison is to storms that appear on life support right up until hitting the coast. Katrina is not the only one, Andrew was another, and then I believe it was Irene that they thought was going toward the west coast, took a right hand turn and landed on Miami as a weak cat 1.

Also Fay. The original track took it over the western part of Cuba, and away. Instead, it past over the middle of Cuba, came right up the keys, through the everglades and meandered around Florida for a few days.

So nothing is ever written in stone.
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Quoting msgambler:
You missed the first one earthly. You made the first one with JFV and I had a heck of a time trying to stop laughing.


It was funny
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storm good call on the steering
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Good evening Storm, How are you this muggy evening?
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seems the TPC isn't ruling out the possibility of a center reform further east?
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2676. miamivu
It was breathtaking watching the strengthening Cat. 1 Katrina in Miami
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings!


Welcome Back!!
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2674. angiest
Quoting ElConando:


That likely won't happen. It has 36-48 hrs imo at the least.


First run of the least skillful models. I've been out of pocket for the last several days but apparently 98L just kinda came up out of nowhere. I won't put too much stock in these models yet.
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings!
Evening Storm
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings!


welcome chief!!!!!
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Hi storm! ahaow are you tonite?
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Quoting txag91met:

If I recalled it was strengthening rapidly before it hit south Florida, then weakened some as it went over it, and quickly gained strength over the Keys.


Was he referring to Wilma?
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Quoting Michaelkaii10:


No i ment in 2005 When Katrina made LandFall in South Flordia Did it strengthen over Land For a Bit before going Out to the Gulf


The answer to that question is yes.
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Quoting StormW:
Greetings!


Evening.
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2664. Grothar
Looking a little healthier on each frame

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Quoting HarleyStormDude52:
another newbie question.... what constitutes a "new blog" on here???


Usually one issues daily unless something significant tropical wise happens.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


You missed Sarcaster.... Senior Chief Caster.... Copy cat caster/ copycaster
You missed the first one earthly. You made the first one with JFV and I had a heck of a time trying to stop laughing. Ohh, that was it...HEHEHEHE
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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