97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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4512. Grothar
Quoting Snowlover123:


... Bittercaster?


Don't tell anybody, but I bought about $300 worth of supplies last night, (you know, just in case) LOL
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AOI
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Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting FLdewey:
I ran the sprinklers this morning... pretty sure Indialantic won't see a drop of rain from this thing.

Somebody wake me when its over.

ZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz

I've still got plans to have my wife out on the driveway at 8am tomorrow morning for our garage sale... I think we may get a little rain but not much as well... and if it does rain, i hope she has a poncho haha
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Friends husbands are making evacuation preps on their rigs in the GOM.
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Wishcasting is in full force this am, from people who have never been impacted by a hurricane.
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4506. Torgen
Morning all! Wow, wake up and the tracks have taken a BIG jump south! What's the concensus of the WUG Cabal on this? Aberration, or true change of path? I'm in Tampa, and since I was in the projected path last night, have a special interest in this one.
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Good morning bloggers







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Seriously, we need an update from Dr. Masters.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Snowlover123:


The models didn't even develop anything to begin with! ;)


They have consistently bounced between a TS and Cat 1 for the last two days.
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4502. pcola57
Quoting msgambler:
Who are you listening to on Mobile tv. I haven't listened to them since John Ed left.

John Ed was a very good met on channel 5 Mobile...i miss him now that he's retired..the new guys is named jason ???...back to weather...with the present record sea temps in the gulf,imo...this 98L/or TD(depending on your viewpoint) could very well spin up again in the gulf after passing lower florida...input anyone?
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I have 21.8 and 74.3 coming into view for 97l.
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4500. gator23
Quoting Snowlover123:


The models didn't even develop anything to begin with! ;)

yes they did, botht the GFDL and HWRF developed this system in this incarnation days ago.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
are they flying to both day?
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Quoting 954FtLCane:
thanks for answering my question... now I'm scared..
really scared because I'm not going to get any work done today and becuase of Bonnie/WU and I might get fired.... lol
Might as well face it I'm addicted to WUve


1st step to overcoming an addiction is to admit it!

I too, am a Tropical weather weenie.
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Quoting gator23:

Florida casters get a bad rep on here but these Katrina casters are worse.


lol!!!! trust me i do not want another KATRINA!!! BELIEVE ME LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I still do think 97L will go a little further north than expected as it strengthens, but even if it does go through the straights that doesn't mean south Florida is out of the picture. If you note the strongest winds and convection are in the northern quadrant.


However, the center would not weaken.
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Quoting 7544:
models will go back to the north where they org. were lol looks like the cmc nailed this one on where it will go not sure on strenght yet it did have a strong ts or cat couple of days ago so ill go with a stronger ts at this point
Actually, originally they were taking TD # through the straits and up along the W FL coast.
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I still do think 97L will go a little further north than expected as it strengthens, but even if it does go through the straights that doesn't mean south Florida is out of the picture. If you note the strongest winds and convection are in the northern quadrant.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Orcasystems:


Actually... at this point in time.. the models agree with him.


The models didn't even develop anything to begin with! ;)
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Been up tracking soon to be Bonnie and my husband's ship track for the past several hours. The ship was just to the north of the new center, on the other side of the Bahama islands, and reported 30 knot winds and 15-17 foot waves.

Like deja vu when Andrea formed over them a couple of years ago off the coast of VA. Hope they are not having the damage and injuries now that they had then... I won't hear form him until they reach PR sometime tomorrow.
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Quoting newportrinative:
Can someone post the latest tracking models for 97L?

Thanks


Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting Grothar:
They are going to update these soon.



Any idea what time?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
looks like its time for update doc


Yup, and a couple little white pills for a few people on here.
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Can someone post the latest tracking models for 97L?

Thanks
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Thanks CT....you are right, I referred to that in earlier posts, not this one

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its not 97L anymore.. its TD3.
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where did all of these people come from all of a sudden? lol
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4480. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
looks like its time for update doc
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100%!?!?
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Quoting LightningCharmer:
Folks, I'm sure others noticed but some DWH work was halted yesterday. In the very early hours this morning some vessels of opportunity were ordered to halt operations, and boom was being removed as well. Seems some knew something was likely to happen. They're not reading this blog are they? LOL


Yes. The oil industry pays big bucks for some awesome private forecasters who refuse to work for the Fed for peanuts.
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4475. gator23
Quoting BahaHurican:
Ok.... I THINK IT GOING TO HIT(The Bahamas).

OMG.

It worked.....

;o)

LMAO! well no, thats just plain old forecastin' right der
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182
I don't think Bastardi saw the visibles before he wrote this..since it was posted at 7AM

Speaking of problems, the whack a moles are back again. The western Caribbean disturbance is in the gulf and if TPC want sto, they probably could name it before ashore tomorrow but well south. The system that will bring heavy rains and squalls to gale force to south Florida tomorrow is already causing 40kt winds and 13 foot seas in near the southeast Bahamas, but I have no change on that now I will post on it later, but it appears the upper low, though backing away, cant get far enough away ( the surface system is moving more west northwest than west, hence its keeping the outflow jet over, not in front of it) for this to develop. Though it could get tricky Sunday or Monday

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NWS here in Texas said there will be a weak wave with an upper Low coming to Texas early next week, Accuweather said no chance this 97L will develop, just shows you the Experts are not always right either.
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Ike or anyone else are they flying to both day? Just got in
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4469. QMiami
Max Mayfield just called in to local 10 and said that he expects TS warnings by 11am and that he didn't expect it to attain hurricane status
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Quoting fmbill:


"Calm-caster" :-)


Actually... at this point in time.. the models agree with him.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:
This place is going to be a madhouse later.
When you know who gets on here later and sees that he is under a TS warning this blog is going to go mad.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting gator23:

no surprised since you live in Palm Bay

KENT'S LAW IS NOW IN EFFECT:

I THINK IT GOING TO HIT(INSERT YOUR CURRENT LOCATION)
Ok.... I THINK IT GOING TO HIT(The Bahamas).

OMG.

It worked.....

;o)
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4465. 7544
wow so fla gets a strom coming from the east in july this is another record
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Quoting Goldenblack:
Yeah, its too early for gulf coast, but 97L is beating the shear and the ULL that was causing 30-40 knots is elongating and being pushed out.

check it out - Link




Its not 97L anymore.. its TD3.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24574
4463. scott39
Inhale----Exhale!
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 6912
4462. gator23
Quoting louisianaweatherguy:


"K" meaning KATRINA???? I've been stating all along how this thing is reminding me of Katrina... I hope Bonnie isnt related in anyway!!!

Florida casters get a bad rep on here but these Katrina casters are worse.
Member Since: August 26, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2182

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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