97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
There's actually quite a fair amount of scientific data to support ur view of Gulf Stream as a strengther for storms approaching the US east coast, especially when they are small enough or moving slowly enough.


Taking that a bit further - several of the storms have strengthened just as they hit shore - here in Miami and in the keys, the gulf stream is very close to land. Kind of like sitting the kettle right in the middle of the hottest fire.
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Quoting StormW:


That's not really necessary. Thanks though.

Is that in Washington, DC?


Wherever you want to go Master Chief!
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2757. gator23
Quoting miamivu:


...and as zoomiami mentioned, Irene was another "sneak attack" that packed a wallop as a Cat. 1

Irene sucked. caught everyone off guard, I remeber Don Noe saying to Max Mayfield "This seems to be moving North East" Mayfields response "its just a jog systems will do that we are pretty confident it will make landfall near Tampa" pfft
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Evening StormW.

36 hours ago, I had a lengthy explanation of the upper atmospheric evolution to justify why I think 97L would not develop:

Call Me a Downcaster! 97L May Not Develop At All

I was trying to explain why the upper low near 97L moved northwestward at first, and then was turning southwestward at the time (was predicting the upper low would intercept 97L with shear and cease development). I would be honored if you had any time to look at the water vapor imagery in the post, just curious if I was explaining anything right.
Member Since: September 15, 2009 Posts: 468 Comments: 3656
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
What is the probability 97L will become a hurricane in the Gulf?


only about ten percent
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my bad
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Quoting floridaT:
I have a laymans theory about that. i fish the gulfstream off the east coast of fl. that water is moving about 6 to 7 knots and is allways warmer. i believe because that water is comming from the south it is constantly providing a new energy source therefore reduceing the effect of upwelling. just my 2 cents worth
There's actually quite a fair amount of scientific data to support ur view of Gulf Stream as a strengther for storms approaching the US east coast, especially when they are small enough or moving slowly enough.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21938
2751. Ldog74
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL Sorry, all; I should have indicated I was being a bit tongue in cheek w/ that question.... but our newest enthusiasts might actually enjoy reading about the Fujiwara effect. It's one of the more interesting aspects of TC "lore".... lol


If yall wanna look at something really interesting, when the Atlantic tropics cool down eventually, go check out the 1997 typhoon season with Ivan and Joan.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Storm: is there any chance 97L comes here?
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LOL Disney World or Dothan, AL. Theres a stretch Storm. You can either ride the ferris wheel or pitch pennies behind the k-mart.... You better hope we like you....LOL
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2747. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting zoomiami:
I was not so thrilled with Katrina "ramping" up. We thought it was just going to be a tropical blob, took no precautions at all, even came home from work at 5.

right about 6:15 all hell broke loose, and we spend the next 3 hours bailing out the second floor of our house. Two sets of french doors blew open, and even after we were able to secure them the little holes acted like high pressure hoses.

Not something I care to repeart.
but you proably will
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2746. Grothar
Quoting spathy:
Greetings StormW :0)
.
Grother?
Is that post sat #2664 old?
I cant read time on it!
Aging eyes and dime store glasses.


No, I am old, the image is brand new! Just came out.
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2745. miamivu
Quoting BahaHurican:
That storm had a lot of water with it.

While I don't expect 97L to ramp up the way Katrina did, I do admit that Katrina has made me wary of these "sneak attack" storms that come out of practically nowhere.


...and as zoomiami mentioned, Irene was another "sneak attack" that packed a wallop as a Cat. 1
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Quoting btwntx08:
2723:they always say his name and hes been making new accounts


You and I are in the same neck of the woods, RGV,
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Quoting Baybuddy:


Great Sir. You work to hard, so I am going to start a collection after cane season and we are going to send you to Disney World.....Or Dothan Al. depending on how much we can scratch together.


I'll donate!
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Hi y'all.

Dry:


Is it really going to moisten all that much before...

?
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I was not so thrilled with Katrina "ramping" up. We thought it was just going to be a tropical blob, took no precautions at all, even came home from work at 5.

right about 6:15 all hell broke loose, and we spent the next 3 hours bailing out the second floor of our house. Two sets of french doors blew open, and even after we were able to secure them the little holes acted like high pressure hoses.

Not something I care to repeart.
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Storm: is there any chance 97L comes here?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Wow .. I just updated my ignore list... Getting pretty full in there... LOL

you and me both.
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Hi Baha -- are you going to keep the rain on your side?
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2730. wjdow
hilarious list, especially caster.casters. what about dr. master.casters, or master.casters for short, for the people who try to be the first one to thank him each time he updates?
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2729. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
2719. mydogisgay 1:28 AM GMT on July 22, 2010

when you hear

"Florida, Florida, Florida I feel W I N D Y..
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 45235
Quoting miamivu:
It was breathtaking watching the strengthening Cat. 1 Katrina in Miami
That storm had a lot of water with it.

While I don't expect 97L to ramp up the way Katrina did, I do admit that Katrina has made me wary of these "sneak attack" storms that come out of practically nowhere.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21938
Wow .. I just updated my ignore list... Getting pretty full in there... LOL
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2725. calder
Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL Sorry, all; I should have indicated I was being a bit tongue in cheek w/ that question.... but our newest enthusiasts might actually enjoy reading about the Fujiwara effect. It's one of the more interesting aspects of TC "lore".... lol


:) Yeh I thought you blogged pretty good stuff and was wondering if you'd just been blagging some knowledge all this time! I'm off the back of a 15 hour shift, didn't even get an ounce of sarcasm!
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Quoting btwntx08:
plz dont qoute "him" just ingore thx


What are you talking about?
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2722. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting mydogisgay:
OMG when will they evacuate FL!!!! 97L is headed straight towards us!!!
from nothing it shall come schmuck
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2718. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/97/L
MARK
21.1N/71.1W


INV/98/L
MARK
20.3N/92.9W
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Quoting floridaT:
I have a laymans theory about that. i fish the gulfstream off the east coast of fl. that water is moving about 6 to 7 knots and is allways warmer. i believe because that water is comming from the south it is constantly providing a new energy source therefore reduceing the effect of upwelling. just my 2 cents worth


THanks for the observation, I'm sure your right about that.
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2714. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I certianly can help with getting him in to any of the attractions here in Central Florida.


Seriously..I can not think of a more deserving person
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Quoting zoomiami:
any comparison to Katrina does not have to be to what happen in New Orleans. The comparison is to storms that appear on life support right up until hitting the coast. Katrina is not the only one, Andrew was another, and then I believe it was Irene that the thought was going toward the west coast, took a right hand turn and landed on Miami as a weak cat 1.

Also Fay. The original track took it over the western part of Cuba, and away. Instead, it past over the middle of Cuba, came right up the keys, through the everglades and meandered around Florida for a few days.

So nothing is ever written in stone.
I have a laymans theory about that. i fish the gulfstream off the east coast of fl. that water is moving about 6 to 7 knots and is allways warmer. i believe because that water is comming from the south it is constantly providing a new energy source therefore reduceing the effect of upwelling. just my 2 cents worth
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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