97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting extreme236:


Well, most of what you missed happened in just the past few hours. Had a pretty big burst of excitement over 98L being declared a few hours ago.
Not interested...LOL!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would go over but there has been 2800+ posts, can you give me a brief overview?


Well, most of what you missed happened in just the past few hours. Had a pretty big burst of excitement over 98L being declared a few hours ago.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
2810. Grothar
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
98L has very favorable conditions to work with, but it has 2 problems going for it. 1) It's very broad 2) it has a short amount of time to work with. Overall, I think it has about a 50-60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.


Has 36-48 hrs at minimum. We shall see what it can do. The night should help it out.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3757
Quoting earthlydragonfly:


That def happened with Charley in 2004


Yeah what was supposed to be a close call and go to Tampa turned into a living nightmare!
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Quoting zoomiami:
I was not so thrilled with Katrina "ramping" up. We thought it was just going to be a tropical blob, took no precautions at all, even came home from work at 5.

right about 6:15 all hell broke loose, and we spent the next 3 hours bailing out the second floor of our house. Two sets of french doors blew open, and even after we were able to secure them the little holes acted like high pressure hoses.

Not something I care to repeart.
Yah, I remember that like yesterday. Sitting at work, someone turning on the 1pm update on the radio only to hear "Tropical Storm Katrina is overhead, take cover!" [well words to that effect lol]. We were looking back and forth at each other going "what tropical storm?". We closed down early that day, got soaked trying to get into our cars, and after only about 1 hour of rain discovered that all the roads were flooded. And it was WINDY! When we got home it was to watch in amazement as it strengthened right up to the time it hit Miami, and the pictures of the flooding on the 10 p.m news were amazing...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Moving rather slowly.

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Quoting reedzone:


Good evening Miami, you missed quite a bit today.
I would go over it but there has been 2800 posts, can you give me a brief overview?
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
spin i may
spin i might
spin right up
this night i might


encore, encore
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL Sorry Zoo, think I'll have to pass this one on... looks like we both will get a bit of a soaking between tomorrow and Saturday.... just hoping it's just another rainy day....


Rats -- my yard will grow 5 inches over the weekend.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Evening everybody.


Good evening Miami, you missed quite a bit today.
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2799. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
spin i may
spin i might
spin right up
this night i might
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2798. Grothar
Quoting spathy:

Thanks Groth:0)


Anytime. I was the first one to post 98L on here and I didn't even get honorable mention. It's OK. Old people are used to being ignored, I guess.
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Quoting gator23:

Irene sucked. caught everyone off guard, I remeber Don Noe saying to Max Mayfield "This seems to be moving North East" Mayfields response "its just a jog systems will do that we are pretty confident it will make landfall near Tampa" pfft


Irene had a broad, disorganized center, and consolidated to the NE, which changed the forecasts at the last minute. Irene was a trickster because of its disorganized center when it was in the Florida Straits.
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98L has very favorable conditions to work with, but it has 2 problems going for it. 1) It's very broad 2) it has a short amount of time to work with. Overall, I think it has about a 50-60% chance of developing into a tropical depression.

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2794. gator23
Quoting miamivu:


We were released from work very late...had I gotten home 10 minutes later....I would have been stuck on the Julia Tuttle when the mayhem started...it was very sudden...

Eek, Ms. Tuttle would never have tolerated that.
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Storm W,

I was thinking about your opinion of a broad low that you mentioned earlier and, it really makes sense looking at 850 from Cimms and ENE out of Grand Turk. If that is still your opinion that is.
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Quoting zoomiami:
I was not so thrilled with Katrina "ramping" up. We thought it was just going to be a tropical blob, took no precautions at all, even came home from work at 5.

right about 6:15 all hell broke loose, and we spend the next 3 hours bailing out the second floor of our house. Two sets of french doors blew open, and even after we were able to secure them the little holes acted like high pressure hoses.

Not something I care to repeart.
Katrina in south Florida is the reason I read this blog at least daily during season. That storm caught me by surprise. A friend ask me to keep an eye on his boat while he was out of town. Of course didn't have the boat tied and rigged for a hurricane; like an idiot was relying on mass media. I Nearly lost my friend's boat at the dock. Anything close to home now keeps my attention.

Again, I have to thank those on here who report on what is not really reported elsewhere which gives those like me a little more advance warning
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Thanks Waveryder -- neat image. My daughter is on a plane to Portland as we speak!
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Just did a new blog on Invest 97L and 98L.
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
00Z NAM got data from 12 dropsondes from the GIV flight.




Wonder if the GFS v 2.0 did as well.
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OFF TOPIC. Not tropical in nature but an unusually beautiful radar signature on Portland Maine radar in association with a low passing/forming on a cold front. I am a constant lurker, very infrequent poster. Beautiful spiral bands. 50 knot wind gusts in Penobscot Bay at the moment. Thought you all would be interested...
Link
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97l seems to be looking a bit better now no? If they find a closed surface circulation tomorrow, but it is removed from the convection, but there are high winds in the convection...would they normally still classify that as a TD/TS depending on the winds?
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Miamivu: it did seem like it just landed on our heads didn't it? That was one of the most intense storms I've been through. We were on the "twist" of the storm as it came in and went south, so instead of having bands, etc, we had steady BAD weather for about 4 1/2 hours.

finally called my dad, with just a quaver in my voice, and asked him to see if he could figure out when it was going away. I'ld had enough of the water.
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2784. Grothar


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2783. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/97/L
MARK
21.1N/71.1W
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Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Baha -- are you going to keep the rain on your side?
LOL Sorry Zoo, think I'll have to pass this one on... looks like we both will get a bit of a soaking between tomorrow and Saturday.... just hoping it's just another rainy day....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
Quoting btwntx08:
hey miami he have 98L to talk about as well
Yep, just noticed.
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00Z NAM got data from 12 dropsondes from the GIV flight.


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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Evening everybody.


Hey Miami... Good evening
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2775. gator23
Quoting Acere25:


You don't give up, do you?

mail Acere
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Ok now back to the tropics.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


That def happened with Charley in 2004


I'm not very familiar with the current on the west coast, but I fish on the east coast all the time. Even learned how to find the gulf stream on the gps. (I know, its not that big a deal, but I was pretty tickled)
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Evening everybody.
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Quoting zoomiami:


Taking that a bit further - several of the storms have strengthened just as they hit shore - here in Miami and in the keys, the gulf stream is very close to land. Kind of like sitting the kettle right in the middle of the hottest fire.


That def happened with Charley in 2004
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2769. miamivu
Quoting zoomiami:
I was not so thrilled with Katrina "ramping" up. We thought it was just going to be a tropical blob, took no precautions at all, even came home from work at 5.

right about 6:15 all hell broke loose, and we spent the next 3 hours bailing out the second floor of our house. Two sets of french doors blew open, and even after we were able to secure them the little holes acted like high pressure hoses.

Not something I care to repeart.


We were released from work very late...had I gotten home 10 minutes later....I would have been stuck on the Julia Tuttle when the mayhem started...it was very sudden...
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2768. angiest
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
What is the probability 97L will become a hurricane in the Gulf?


Between 0 and 100%.
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OOps did I post that link??? Sorry about thAt.
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Out!! Nite folks.
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Quoting Jeff9641:
If there is a cent then it would be SE of Grand Turk.

Grand Turk, Turks And Caicos Islands WeatherSave Location
Updated: Jul 21, 2010, 8pm Local TimeUPDATE DATAView Options
Right Now
Forecast:
Heavy Rain / Windy Temperature:75°F
Feels Like: 79° Past 24-hr:Precip: N/A
Snow: N/A Wind:From ENE at 30mph
Where did u find this? Link would be great.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22318
I am starting to think this season is moving slowly and overhyped.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.