97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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A major Outbreak of Severe Storms in the Northeast caused many reports, a classic July (La Nina) situation. Even my hometown in NY (Mastic Beach, Long Island) was hit very hard today, could be some more in a few hours as the front swings by.

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
2861. miamivu
Quoting zoomiami:
Miamivu: it did seem like it just landed on our heads didn't it? That was one of the most intense storms I've been through. We were on the "twist" of the storm as it came in and went south, so instead of having bands, etc, we had steady BAD weather for about 4 1/2 hours.

finally called my dad, with just a quaver in my voice, and asked him to see if he could figure out when it was going away. I'ld had enough of the water.


'Twist' is an interesting way of expressing it...it just seemed like it was revving up before our eyes...we were experiencing a Great storm at the beginning. In some ways it was more dramatic than Wilma....but of course the damage from Wilma was much worse.....I lost power from Katrina for 12 hours...from Wilma 8 days.
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Thanks for the update CRS.
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98L with a pressure of 1008mb as of 00z.

AL, 98, 2010072200, , BEST, 0, 202N, 935W, 20, 1008, DB,
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Might actually get recon into 97L tomorrow if it can organize some.
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2856. angiest
2851 - I think you want to say deeper. :)
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Quoting Chicklit:
It is not 97L's fault.
The CV wave has fought the good fight, but the relentless ULL full of dry air that's been pummeling it for three days is taking its toll.
The good news is, hopefully, by the time this system gets to Florida it will be so weak that it will cross the state as only a shadow of its former self and give the Deepwater Disaster Team another week of reprieve while they try to figure out a way to rectify that awful situation.
[lifts glass] Hear hear.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22727
Still steady rain here on Provo
and now starting to have some thunderrrumble
Wind steady 15-20 mph with gusts up in 30s
From ENE
Barometer rising
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I don't know where the rain is this year....but it's don't where I live....lol...so I am hoping for a little bit of rain... ;)
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97L "stronger" as of 00z.

AL, 97, 2010072200, , BEST, 0, 214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB,
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Quoting extreme236:
This blog tends to have a major case of multiple-personality casting...

and the meds that they have for that disorder would never help this blog lol you would need a dose strong enough to kill a freaken rino
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yah, I remember that like yesterday. Sitting at work, someone turning on the 1pm update on the radio only to hear "Tropical Storm Katrina is overhead, take cover!" [well words to that effect lol].


What amazes me is that S. Fla was under a hurricane warning as of 11pm the night before. Most people and businesses in Miami just thought of Katrina as a "little" tropical storm and they ignored that hurricane warning. I have never failed to put my shutters up under a hurricane warning...ever. I did that time and regretted it and I knew better and still ignored it. Goes to show ya... Course it didn't help that no business in Miami closed that morning to give folks time to prepare.
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Quoting connie1976:
I am in Pembroke Pines....between Miami and ft. lauderdale....right next to the everglades... Thanks Storm!!


You will likely get rain from this. Rain chances for Fri and Sat are 50%
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
This blog tends to have a major case of multiple-personality casting...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It is not 97L's fault.
The CV wave has fought the good fight, but the relentless ULL full of dry air that's been pummeling it for three days is taking its toll.
The good news is, hopefully, by the time this system gets to Florida it will be so weak that it will cross the state as only a shadow of its former self and give the Deepwater Disaster Team another week of reprieve while they try to figure out a way to rectify that awful situation.
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2844. xcool
LMAO .AKA DAM ULL NOW MOVE FAST
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I am in Pembroke Pines....between Miami and ft. lauderdale....right next to the everglades... Thanks Storm!!
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Quoting StormW:


Multi caster!


LOL.. he just wanted an overview of todays excitment on the "Wunderblogs of our Lives"
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting Grothar:



I do! I was in Vietnam at the time, 1968.


Oh my lol. My parents were teenagers in 1968.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Had to get another crown and water... Im caught up now!!!
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2838. Grothar
Quoting spathy:

Groth
This Blog is moving so fast even these rather younger eyes cant keep up.
I had just been on Skys Blog and seen a LARGER look at 97L.
Your pic was not as focusable/zoomed... so looked further East as the new concentrated/consolidated spin flared.


That is OK,at least you looked. LOL
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Interesting. I believe that 97L still has time to develop into Bonnie before moving into south Florida, however it won't be strong.


certainly possible.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
2835. angiest
Quoting btwntx08:
2813:looks good to me man


I thought it looked better earlier, not necessarily that it looks bad now.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO!! Thank God I was away from the computer...


Ehh, there was more, but really just to sum it up :)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
2832. Grothar
Quoting ElConando:
Groth you remember the 50th anniversary of WWI?



I do! I was in Vietnam at the time, 1968.
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Quoting ElConando:
Groth you remember the 50th anniversary of WWI?
Groth remembers the 1st anniver.....LOL
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hi y'all.

Dry:


Is it really going to moisten all that much before...

?
Hey atmo. Long time no blog... Thoughts on 98L?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22727
Quoting reedzone:


Wednesday morning:
RIP 97L
Give it time
It might not make it
Dry air will kill 97L

Wednesday Afternoon:
RIP 97L

The ULL is strengtehning!
ULL will eat 97L for lunch
Convection is growing on 97L again
Wind shear is too high
Severe weather outbreak in the Northeastern USA
What's that area in the BOC??

Wednesday Evening
Invest 98L WOW
60-70% for the first mention on TWO
naaa, 30-40% NHC wants to see consistance
97L looks weak
97L is slowly organizing
98L could be Bonnie
We might have 2 systems
Season is a bust

There ya go Miami :P
LMAO!! Thank God I was away from the computer...
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Storm,

97L is going to miss south florida?? no rain for us? Thanks!

**I am hoping for lots of rain for my grass & gardens... :)
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As Reed was saying earlier, what happens tonight and overnight with these systems is important.
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Groth you remember the 50th anniversary of WWI?
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would go over it but there has been 2800 posts, can you give me a brief overview?


Wednesday morning:
RIP 97L
Give it time
It might not make it
Dry air will kill 97L

Wednesday Afternoon:
RIP 97L

The ULL is strengtehning!
ULL will eat 97L for lunch
Convection is growing on 97L again
Wind shear is too high
Severe weather outbreak in the Northeastern USA
What's that area in the BOC??

Wednesday Evening
Invest 98L WOW
60-70% for the first mention on TWO
naaa, 30-40% NHC wants to see consistance
97L looks weak
97L is slowly organizing
98L could be Bonnie
We might have 2 systems
Season is a bust

There ya go Miami :P
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Provo Golf Club, Grace Bay, PROVIDENCIALES
Had pressure of 1007.5MB
W/I the last 20 minutes w a SSE wind.
Link
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Quoting ElConando:


Basically arguments for and against 97L's survival. Whether it will become a TC or not. Then around 4-5 hours ago I guess what was to become 98L became a topic of conversation. And if it has time to form.
Interesting. I believe that 97L still has time to develop into Bonnie before moving into south Florida, however it won't be strong.
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Out, out, brief candle!
Life's but a walking shadow, a poor player
That struts and frets his hour upon the stage
And then is heard no more: it is a tale
Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury,
Signifying nothing.
(from MacBeth)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Not interested...LOL!


Lol yeah it's not worth going back over the posts.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would go over but there has been 2800+ posts, can you give me a brief overview?


Basically arguments for and against 97L's survival. Whether it will become a TC or not. Then around 4-5 hours ago I guess what was to become 98L became a topic of conversation. And if it has time to form.
Member Since: September 6, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 3784
Quoting BenBIogger:


Wonder if the GFS v 2.0 did as well.


It will have those 12 and more. 00Z GFS does not start processing data untill 10:45 PM EDT.
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If 98L can consolidate a bit its chances will improve quite a bit.
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2813. angiest
98L doesn't look quite as good on sat. now. *shrug* we shall see what happens.
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Quoting extreme236:


Well, most of what you missed happened in just the past few hours. Had a pretty big burst of excitement over 98L being declared a few hours ago.
Not interested...LOL!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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