97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

Share this Blog
5
+

A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2912 - 2862

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

Quoting mikatnight:


According to my notes, NHC issued a Hurricane Warning 18 hours before Katrina's first landfall (in S. Fla.).


You took notes ? Wow. I was too busy swearing at my lack of preparedness. :-)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not seeing much beyond TD 2 redux for 98L in the crystal ball...a little further south, maybe.
Yeah, I can see that. Jus hope it comes ashore far enough south for the rainfall to drain into a different river basin...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22735
SSD has a floater up on 98L now.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Makes perfect sense. The ULL is far enough to the west, some say 97L is slowing down, that would be a dangerous thing because that would give more time for the ULL to move away from the invest. Tonight, it's looking disorganized, but slowly organizing. You can see the comma shaped convection, definetly an improvement form earlier today.

Invest 97L


Though somewhat disorganized, 97L is looking way better than the roadkill it was this morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2906. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
Did you guys hear something? Thought I did...nah.


et tu atmoe! Where have you been? Couldn't have been anyplace important.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Southfla: the night before we were only tropical storm warnings and watches, Katrina was still a depression at 11 pm the night before.

Then tropical storm warning and Hurricane Watch. The hurricane warning didn't go up until 5 pm.

Oops -- too late. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:

That's a leap north, isn't it?
Those coordinates are most likely incorrect, I just looked at one shortwave loop and based it off of that. More accurate are the 00z ATCF coordinates.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2903. pottery
Good Evening.
An inch and a half of rain here early this morning, and showers/bright skies/cloudy conditions/thunder in the distance all day long.
Clearing up now and a nice moon is up.

Some decent stuff building around 98L, but time is short for it to do much.

97L is slow. Which is a good thing for the GOM Oil Collectors.

Waves building in the East Atl.

What else ???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


Did we have a hurricane warning? I'm pretty good about paying attention to those. However, Katrina gave rise to the phrase "its only". Never again are we going to say "its only" a tropical storm, a little hurricane etc. I had several friend who lost their roofs in "its only" a tropical storm.


According to my notes, NHC issued a Hurricane Warning 18 hours before Katrina's first landfall (in S. Fla.).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Miami is it me or the that loop you put up is it starting to rap some storms around the center
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AlexEmmett:

wow and it still looks uglyer than jason is a coolman


LMAO LMAO LAMO!!!!! (sorry about the last one.. )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
When will the satellite images update? They've been stuck on 0015 UTC for awhile.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
Satellite Imagery NOTNOT UPDATE

yah that weird just noticed that
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Makes perfect sense. The ULL is far enough to the west, some say 97L is slowing down, that would be a dangerous thing because that would give more time for the ULL to move away from the invest. Tonight, it's looking disorganized, but slowly organizing. You can see the comma shaped convection, definetly an improvement form earlier today.

Invest 97L

I agree. Satellite imagery shows organization of the structure. Also an anticyclone has formed aloft so the environment in the upper levels doesn't necessarily seem "unfavorable" as the NHC stated in the 8PM TWO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
It is not 97L's fault.
The CV wave has fought the good fight, but the relentless ULL full of dry air that's been pummeling it for three days is taking its toll.
The good news is, hopefully, by the time this system gets to Florida it will be so weak that it will cross the state as only a shadow of its former self and give the Deepwater Disaster Team another week of reprieve while they try to figure out a way to rectify that awful situation.
unfortunetly they already started pulling back. they have halted the relief well drilling and there talking about opening the cap as it cant be monitored in a storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


I know...it wasn't meant to be at you...just showing how crazy this place can be.


I know, I appreciate the humor though :) Gives this blog a nice flavor.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
2894. aquak9
sigh...

ok I allow myself one stupid question a week. I'm in Jax. Will I get even any rain from this?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2893. angiest
Thanks DestinJeff. ;)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2892. xcool
Satellite Imagery NOTNOT UPDATE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't recall there being any mention of Katrina as even a TS the evening before on our news. Because we get so many Twaves here most summers, the mention of a Twave wouldn't have caught our attention.


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Amazing huh ? Unless you want to believe the the NHC doctored the advisories post-Katrina, you ought to blame your local media for downplaying the storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hi Reed, slowing down? Can 97L get any slower?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
As far as the models on 97L go, I think the recent westward shift is due to the fact it hasn't developed yet (disturbances, especially a surface trough in the low-latitude easterlies don't begin to turn north until they develop. But, I am not concerend about the model runs because it still seems to me that 97L will continue to struggle with shear and not develop.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Anytime. I was the first one to post 98L on here and I didn't even get honorable mention. It's OK. Old people are used to being ignored, I guess.
Did you guys hear something? Thought I did...nah.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
its getting ready to go boom
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
Still steady rain here on Provo
and now starting to have some thunderrrumble
Wind steady 15-20 mph with gusts up in 30s
From ENE
Barometer rising
Ta.

BTW, do u know why there's no data available from Turks Island airport?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22735
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I would put the COC of 97L at 21.2˚N and 71.7˚W based on shortwave loops.

That's a leap north, isn't it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2884. xcool
Satellite Imagery NOTNOT UPDATE .DAM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
97L "stronger" as of 00z.

AL, 97, 2010072200, , BEST, 0, 214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB,


Makes perfect sense. The ULL is far enough to the west, some say 97L is slowing down, that would be a dangerous thing because that would give more time for the ULL to move away from the invest. Tonight, it's looking disorganized, but slowly organizing. You can see the comma shaped convection, definetly an improvement form earlier today.

Invest 97L

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


Did we have a hurricane warning? I'm pretty good about paying attention to those. However, Katrina gave rise to the phrase "its only". Never again are we going to say "its only" a tropical storm, a little hurricane etc. I had several friend who lost their roofs in "its only" a tropical storm.


Yup we did. I just went to the NHC web site and checked the archive. I wasn't sure if I remembered that right.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
[lifts glass] Hear hear.

Hi Baha. Yeah. We're certainly getting wake up calls. So far no rude awakenings, fortunately.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK everybody, Have a good night and we'll see ya in the morning.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey atmo. Long time no blog... Thoughts on 98L?
Not seeing much beyond TD 2 redux for 98L in the crystal ball...a little further south, maybe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting southfla:


What amazes me is that S. Fla was under a hurricane warning as of 11pm the night before. Most people and businesses in Miami just thought of Katrina as a "little" tropical storm and they ignored that hurricane warning. I have never failed to put my shutters up under a hurricane warning...ever. I did that time and regretted it and I knew better and still ignored it. Goes to show ya... Course it didn't help that no business in Miami closed that morning to give folks time to prepare.
I don't recall there being any mention of Katrina as even a TS the evening before on our news. Because we get so many Twaves here most summers, the mention of a Twave wouldn't have caught our attention.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22735
I would put the COC of 97L at 21.2˚N and 71.7˚W based on shortwave loops.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2872. angiest
Why do I sense someone posting "The Chart" soon?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


If it doesn't shift anymore westward, you should get much needed rain.
Do you think there is much chance of that ? Shifting more westward I mean ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting southfla:


What amazes me is that S. Fla was under a hurricane warning as of 11pm the night before. Most people and businesses in Miami just thought of Katrina as a "little" tropical storm and they ignored that hurricane warning. I have never failed to put my shutters up under a hurricane warning...ever. I did that time and regretted it and I knew better and still ignored it. Goes to show ya... Course it didn't help that no business in Miami closed that morning to give folks time to prepare.


Did we have a hurricane warning? I'm pretty good about paying attention to those. However, Katrina gave rise to the phrase "its only". Never again are we going to say "its only" a tropical storm, a little hurricane etc. I had several friend who lost their roofs in "its only" a tropical storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
This season seems to be a slow starter so far and maybe a little overhyped.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Is this a pattern setting up for the season...storms heading or forming north and tracking north of the Islands and generally westard...I know conditions change constantly, but there is something to be said for persistence.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Thanks Storm....I think that it's time for me to go to sleep....I'm not typing good...lol...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
A major Outbreak of Severe Storms in the Northeast caused many reports, a classic July (La Nina) situation. Even my hometown in NY (Mastic Beach, Long Island) was hit very hard today, could be some more in a few hours as the front swings by.

Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437

Viewing: 2912 - 2862

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron