97L gets disrupted by Hispaniola

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:53 PM GMT on July 21, 2010

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A tropical wave (Invest 97L) near the north coast of Hispaniola has been disrupted by interaction with the island, plus the effects of moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots. The storm is no longer a threat to develop into a tropical depression today, and the Hurricane Hunter flight that was scheduled for today has been postponed until Thursday. The disturbance has brought heavy rains of 8+ inches to Culebra, Vieques, the Virgin Islands, and some of the northern Lesser Antilles Islands. Wunderblogger Weather456 reported that the power was knocked out on the island of St. Kitts for about 24 hours, due to the intense lightning associated with 97L. All of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands are under flash flood watches today.

Satellite images of 97L show a relatively meager number of heavy thunderstorms that are not well-organized. The curved bands to the north and east of the center have disappeared, and there is no evidence of low-level spiral banding or of a surface circulation. Surface observations over the northern Dominican Republic show only light winds, with no westerly winds indicating that a surface circulation is forming. Long-range radar loops from San Juan show a much reduced amount of thunderstorm activity.


Figure 1. Total radar-estimate rainfall for 97L.

Track Forecast for 97L
The storm is in a fairly straightforward steering current environment, and 97L should progress steadily to the west-northwest through Saturday. The rains from 97L's thunderstorms will bring the threat of isolated flooding to the Dominican Republic today, and to Haiti on today and Thursday. Heavy rains from 97L will affect eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the eastern Bahamas Thursday, and South and Central Florida can expect heavy rains to arrive Thursday night or Friday morning. The latest suite of model runs from 2am EDT this morning (6Z) foresee 97L making landfall on the Florida coast somewhere between Miami and Cape Canaveral on Friday, then continuing into the Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Only the Canadian model foresees a threat to Texas, and the other models predict a second landfall between eastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle.

Intensity Forecast for 97L
The primary detriment to development of 97L today will be its close proximity to the landmass of Hispaniola. Once the storm pulls away from the island tonight, 97L has a better chance of development. Also hindering development over the next two days will be the presence of dry, stable air in its path over the Bahamas, thanks to the upper-level low to the north of the Dominican Republic. The SHIPS model predicts shear will stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, over the next three days, which should allow for some steady development of 97L on Thursday and Friday before it reaches Florida. NHC is giving 97L a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Friday, which is a reasonable forecast. I think there is a 70% chance 97L will eventually become Tropical Storm Bonnie, sometime in the next five days. Sudden rapid development before 97L reaches Florida is unlikely, due to the storm's current state of disorganization and the dry air over the Bahamas. It's very unlikely that 97L has time to organize into a hurricane before hitting Florida. I put the odds of 97L making it to hurricane strength before reaching Florida at 5%, and I give a 20% chance it will be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The probability of 97L being a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico will depend heavily upon how long the storm spends over water in the Gulf, which is very uncertain. The environment in the Gulf of Mexico should be favorable for intensification, if passage over Florida does not disrupt the storm too much.

I'll have a new post Thursday morning, or earlier if there's a major change to 97L.

Famed climate scientist Steven Schneider dies
Steven Schneider, one of the most influential and talented climate scientists of our time, died on Monday. Ricky Rood has a tribute to Dr. Schneider in today's blog. Ricky comments, "He is known for feistiness. His last book was Science as a Contact Sport: Inside the Battle to Save Earth's Climate. He was a man who was, bluntly, harassed and threatened by those who did not like his message. He never shrank from the battle."

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Grothar:


et tu atmoe! Where have you been? Couldn't have been anyplace important.
Ummm, busy. And this place, well, sometimes...
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2959. gator23
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I respectfully disagree.
Upper winds are still unfavorable:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Click on the HDW-H check box during the animation, upper winds are either westerly or southerly across the elongated surface trough that is 97L (seems elongated from eastern Cuba to eastern Bahamas). Upper winds needs to be easterly for reduction in shear.

Clash of the titans
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2958. aquak9
growl snarl...I'll probably be on the dry side. Maybe get some cool clouds. Maybe not.

we need some rain.

spathy, reed, thanks for answering. And Reed? I hope you're right.
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Quoting extreme236:


I just checked again and it's on mine. I'm not sure why it wouldn't be on other people's.

it says it on mine too but its focused over meheco
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Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Leap east more like it.

Sorry, CV been out to dinner tonight and my directional signals are currently a bit skewed.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I respectfully disagree. Upper winds are still unfavorable:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Click on the HDW-H check box during the animation, upper winds are either westerly or southerly across the elongated surface trough that is 97L (seems elongated from eastern Cuba to eastern Bahamas). Upper winds needs to be easterly for reduction in shear.
Yep I see what you mean.
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Night Storm
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Quoting DestinJeff:


thats for Katrina ... watches up at 11 on Wed
katrina again... oh well.. maybe I will just pretend,shut the breakers off this weekend, start the gen and go ahead and invite the neighbors for a barbie..q. just practice

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Quoting southfla:


ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...KATRINA HEADING WESTWARD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...HURRICANE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Amazing huh ? Unless you want to believe the the NHC doctored the advisories post-Katrina, you ought to blame your local media for downplaying the storm.
Does it mention the TS watch for the Bahamas? I need to go look at that archive myself. And that was advisory #6. Wonder if that's the one where they upgraded to TS....

I suppose it is POSSIBLE to doctor such documents, but I can't see NHC going to that trouble. Especially when lots and lots of internet sites would have gotten the info (including Wunderground) and archived it.

Well. I seriously doubt no mention was made then; our local WXman on TV is a muckamuck at the Bahamas Met. Dept. I suppose it's possible that at 7:30 pm they hadn't made the upgrades as yet.... but if Basil Dean talked about Katrina that night, I certainly didn't remember it the next day, and I was a hurricane buff even then.

Very interesting....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
2950. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2949. leo305
Quoting Canealum03:
When will the satellite images update? They've been stuck on 0015 UTC for awhile.


yea.. that's why I came here to see if they had updated SAT pics
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2948. Patrap



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
AL, 97, 2010072200, , BEST, 0,
214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB,

21.9 72.2 is my location


...why there's no data available from Turks Island airport?


Airport is small, no International Jets regularly land there, it closes at night etc. etc.
wish mbpv would update there onservation
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I just checked, I dont see a floater up for 98L on the SSD site, I know rammbdis has one


I just checked again and it's on mine. I'm not sure why it wouldn't be on other people's.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree. Satellite imagery shows organization of the structure. Also an anticyclone has formed aloft so the environment in the upper levels doesn't necessarily seem "unfavorable" as the NHC stated in the 8PM TWO.


I respectfully disagree. Upper winds are still unfavorable:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

Click on the HDW-H check box during the animation, upper winds are either westerly or southerly across the elongated surface trough that is 97L (seems elongated from eastern Cuba to eastern Bahamas). Upper winds needs to be easterly for reduction in shear.
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Quoting UpperLevelLOL:
With all these Katrina comps...has anyone compared the heat in the GOMEX for Katrina and this storm? Katrina coming in late August probably had a more fruitful opportunity to explode than this thing.

In other words, knock off the comps unless the heat temps/wind shears are comparable as well.

its hotter
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Yeah, I can see that. Jus hope it comes ashore far enough south for the rainfall to drain into a different river basin...

Yeah, no kidding, according to the image below, Alex may have dropped over 50 inches of rain within the Rio Grande basin in Mexico (yes, I know it says 60 days, but that area there is all semiarid and arid land, so I doubt more than 5 inches or so were not from Alex). Everything within the red line south of the border flows into that river, and that is why flooding was so bad, even with all of the flood control systems in place.

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2941. xcool
Satellite Imagery DOWN
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I just checked, I dont see a floater up for 98L on the SSD site, I know rammbdis has one
It's "Atlantic Floater 2". Although it says "Not Active" it is showing up-to-date imagery of 98L.
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2939. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest97
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)





Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129848
Quoting southfla:


Look again -- it says right at the top -- Tropical Storm Katrina. :-) Memories do fade after 5 years, I know.


Just didn't want someone who was glancing at the blog to think there were storm warnings out lol.
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Quoting southfla:


What amazes me is that S. Fla was under a hurricane warning as of 11pm the night before. Most people and businesses in Miami just thought of Katrina as a "little" tropical storm and they ignored that hurricane warning. I have never failed to put my shutters up under a hurricane warning...ever. I did that time and regretted it and I knew better and still ignored it. Goes to show ya... Course it didn't help that no business in Miami closed that morning to give folks time to prepare.
I could be mistaken but I believe they changed the warning for south Miami and the Keys or it never made it to a hurricane watch because the path forcast kept on changing. (I know, watch the cone not the little black line.) I could be mistaken just relying on foggy memory. The mass media was not hyping it; I do remember that very well. It was a sneaky storm so to speak.

KATRINA Graphics Archive
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Quoting StormW:
Good night everyone!


Good night StormW, rest well. Oh and for those who don't see the floater on 98L.. go to the second floater and click refresh ;)
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
2933. Bonz
Quoting zoomiami:
I find it very interesting to go back to see what the conditions were at the time. I rarely remember much, always so busy getting ready.

Thanks for prodding me into research!


I remember it 'cause the husband was out-of-town, and we boarded up right before he left. Katrina was not much up here in Northern Broward, but one couldn't know that ahead of time.

Guess we'll get rain out of this mess.
Member Since: September 11, 2004 Posts: 0 Comments: 135
Quoting southfla:


You took notes ? Wow. I was too busy swearing at my lack of preparedness. :-)


I'm in Lantana. I found it curious that the NHC kept reporting Katrina headed West, which would have been bad news for us here (relatively speaking), but the actual track kept showing a SW movement. Therefore, I felt the storm wouldn't hit us despite the NHC's bullitens to the contrary.
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With all these Katrina comps...has anyone compared the heat in the GOMEX for Katrina and this storm? Katrina coming in late August probably had a more fruitful opportunity to explode than this thing.

In other words, knock off the comps unless the heat temps/wind shears are comparable as well.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I went in the NHC archives. They have all the different products available for each storm. Its really interesting to go back and read what was going on at the time.

www.nhc.noaa.gov --- bottom left hand side - archives.

I went back through Andrew's once. it was pretty mucch raw data, not stored pretty like it is now. Great read.
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AL, 97, 2010072200, , BEST, 0,
214N, 728W, 30, 1009, DB,

21.9 72.2 is my location


...why there's no data available from Turks Island airport?


Airport is small, no International Jets regularly land there, it closes at night etc. etc.
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2928. pottery
Quoting MechEngMet:
2846: I Like That!! Would that be "Skitzo-Casting"? (Schytzo-Casting? spelling was never a strength).

Good evening to all. I've been on the East side of Mobile bay for a few days. (family v-cation) Hot, Humid, not much oil there. ... and much to my relief and surprise, There was plenty of the usual sea life.

98L looks better than 97L. Time will tell.

Can I offer anyone anything from the bar?

Cheers...
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Quoting extreme236:
SSD has a floater up on 98L now.


Not seeing it on the NHC site yet.
(Forgive my callousness, but pushing snooze button.)
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Quoting DestinJeff:


Good graphic Jeff.. Still look like it could move ms..la..tx.. I guess I am just hoping I could get weak cat 1 so that I could run on generator and grill out with ALL the neighbors...get out of work for a few days.. etc etc
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Quoting extreme236:
SSD has a floater up on 98L now.


I just checked, I dont see a floater up for 98L on the SSD site, I know rammbdis has one
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those coordinates are most likely incorrect, I just looked at one shortwave loop and based it off of that. More accurate are the 00z ATCF coordinates.

Navy has 97L at 213N-714W
which is actualoly a job west from this after noon (or maybe it was morning!) 20N-68.4W.
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I'm out. See you all tomorrow morning.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
Quoting zoomiami:
THIS IS ARCHIVE INFORMATION -- NOT A CURRENT STORM

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4Abr


Look again -- it says right at the top -- Tropical Storm Katrina. :-) Memories do fade after 5 years, I know.
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2920. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
This storm seems to be following a path similar to Katrina. Could it also intensify in the loop current just like Katrina?
things can happen
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I find it very interesting to go back to see what the conditions were at the time. I rarely remember much, always so busy getting ready.

Thanks for prodding me into research!
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Quoting Chicklit:

That's a leap north, isn't it?


Leap east more like it.
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Quoting zoomiami:
Southfla: the night before we were only tropical storm warnings and watches, Katrina was still a depression at 11 pm the night before.

Then tropical storm warning and Hurricane Watch. The hurricane warning didn't go up until 5 pm.

Oops -- too late. lol


Where did you get that info ? Just curious.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2846: I Like That!! Would that be "Skitzo-Casting"? (Schytzo-Casting? spelling was never a strength).

Good evening to all. I've been on the East side of Mobile bay for a few days. (family v-cation) Hot, Humid, not much oil there. ... and much to my relief and surprise, There was plenty of the usual sea life.

98L looks better than 97L. Time will tell.

Can I offer anyone anything from the bar?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
THIS IS ARCHIVE INFORMATION -- NOT A CURRENT STORM

ZCZC MIATCPAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2005

...TROPICAL STORM KATRINA STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...
...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD TO FLORIDA
CITY. THIS REPLACES THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM WEST OF THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE NORTHWARD TO SOUTH
OF FLORIDA CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A WATCH OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATER TODAY.
A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
KATRINA WAS REFORMING NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 77.0
WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES... 50 KM... EAST-NORTHEAST OF NASSAU AND
ABOUT 200 MILES...320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
OF FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH
...13 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A
SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY. THIS MOTION WILL BRING THE CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TODAY AND THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER.
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Quoting aquak9:
sigh...

ok I allow myself one stupid question a week. I'm in Jax. Will I get even any rain from this?


I am one hour south of you, expect an increase in rain/storms.. That's about it unless there's a dramatic turn to the north with 97L, which is highly unlikely. We'll get our action in the next few months.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7437
Quoting mikatnight:


According to my notes, NHC issued a Hurricane Warning 18 hours before Katrina's first landfall (in S. Fla.).


You took notes ? Wow. I was too busy swearing at my lack of preparedness. :-)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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